321
AWUS01 KWNH 241014
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1244
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
513 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241012Z - 241515Z

Summary...Flash flooding is likely to continue for portions of
central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR, at least on a
localized basis, through the morning commute (through 15Z/9 AM
CST). Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches will remain likely within
areas of training and at least isolated/urban flash flooding will
be likely in a couple of areas.

Discussion...Radar imagery from 10Z showed a SW to NE axis of
heavy rain that extended from near San Angelo to Graham,
containing MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and has
had a history of observed 15 minute rates between 0.5 and 1.0
inches. The axis of thunderstorms was located along the leading
edge of 30-40 kt of southerly 925-850 mb winds, which veered and
weakened to the west, forming a SW to NE axis of convergence that
has largely coincided with the line of thunderstorms over central
to northern TX since 06Z. With the exception of the far southern
edge of the line, the thunderstorms were mostly elevated above a
stable layer north of a warm front that draped NW to SE across
central TX to the Upper TX Coast. The environment contained ML/MU
CAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg and precipitable water values of 1.3
to 1.5 inches per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data and these values are
expected to continue to be in place as the system translates east
to northeast.

Short term forecasts from the RAP show the low level convergence
axis translating eastward through 15Z, oriented parallel to
southwesterly mean steering flow, which will continue to support
areas of training over the next 3-5 hours. North of the Red River,
instability is expected to be weaker (<1000 J/kg) which may limit
rainfall intensities, but lift will be augmented by the
right-entrance region of a 90-110 kt upper level jet max located
on the eastern side of a upper level closed low/trough to the
west.

Therefore, while not everyone will see 1 to 2 inches of rain in an
hour, SW to NE axes of heavy rain will continue to impact portions
of central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR through 9 A.M.
local time, which will could impact the morning rush, especially
if overlap of high rain rates occurs with urban locations, such as
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex within the next 1 to 3 hours.
Additional rainfall for many should be 1 to 2 inches but peak
values through 15Z of 2 to 3 inches will likely occur.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35019440 34799388 34309345 33309398 32169588
            31299741 30899864 30829950 31350015 32169926
            33519754 34869529