917
AWUS01 KWNH 101323
FFGMPD
WIZ000-101730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0893
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
923 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101321Z - 101730Z

SUMMARY...Additional heavy rain with peak hourly rainfall of 1 to
2 inches will worsen ongoing flooding conditions in the Milwaukee
metro rest of this morning.

DISCUSSION...The leading edge of a shortwave trough has seen an
increase in heavy rainfall coverage over southeast Wisconsin.
Ample moisture inflow continues with low level SWly flow around
25kt at 850mb which will reinforce 2" PW. SBCAPE of 1500 J/kg will
allow further development as this leading edge crosses the rest of
southeast Wisconsin and the Milwaukee metro. Recent rainfall
estimates from KMKX are up to 2"/hr. Given the multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall over and north of the Milwaukee metro since last
evening with 3-8" measured, this additional heavy rain will
further exacerbate ongoing flooding conditions including
considerable threats.

Additional upstream activity currently along the eastern IA border
will need to be monitored for further impacts over southeast
Wisconsin later this afternoon. Recent HRRR guidance has that
activity shifting in this afternoon, but not the RRFS. Both of
these models do not have this current activity, so there remains
uncertainty for this afternoon. This will continue to be monitored.


Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   43398772 42818749 42498773 42628867 42928878
            43318845