210
FXUS64 KMOB 081832
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
132 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The upper ridge over the southeast states will slowly breakdown
through midweek as the base of an upper trough situated just west
of the Mississippi River shifts eastward over our region. The
upper trough then gradually weakens and lifts northward the latter
half of the week, followed by a large upper high pressure area
building across the entire southeast CONUS over the weekend. A
surface ridge remains in place over the northern Gulf through the
period, and promotes a light southwesterly to westerly flow over
the forecast area. The highest rain chances will occur on Thursday
and Friday as the upper trough influences our region, with at a
minimum numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected.
The typical diurnal pattern continues through the remainder of the
forecast package, with rain chances lowering slightly over the
weekend, but for now we are still anticipating scattered to
numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Will need
to monitor for heat index concerns over the weekend for heat index
values of mostly 102-107 degrees. At this time we are not
expecting to issue any Heat Advisories as most indices should
remain below our criteria of 108 degrees. Pulse thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon give ample instability and minimal shear,
so we can`t rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds, locally
heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

Beach Forecast - The LOW rip current risk increases to a MODERATE
Wednesday night through Thursday, mainly over the western Florida
Panhandle. The rip current probability guidance then trends toward
a LOW risk as we head into the weekend. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Isolated to potentially scattered convection develops through the
afternoon then diminishes early this evening. VFR conditions
prevail through the period except for MVFR conditions with the
stronger showers and storms. Southwesterly winds 5-10 knots this
afternoon become light and variable this evening, then a westerly
flow around 5 knots develops Wednesday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

No impacts anticipated other than higher winds and seas near
storms. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  93  73  92  74  92  74  92 /  10  50  20  80  20  70  10  60
Pensacola   77  93  77  92  78  91  78  92 /  10  40  20  70  20  60  10  50
Destin      80  92  80  91  80  91  80  92 /  10  40  20  60  20  60  10  50
Evergreen   72  94  72  93  72  93  72  94 /  20  50  30  70  20  70  10  60
Waynesboro  71  93  71  91  71  93  73  94 /  20  50  20  70  20  60  10  50
Camden      73  93  72  91  72  91  73  91 /  20  40  30  70  30  60  20  60
Crestview   73  94  73  93  74  93  73  93 /  10  50  30  80  20  80  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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