695
FXUS64 KMOB 081724
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1124 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. North-
northwesterly winds of around 5 to 10 knots will slowly shift to
north-northeasterly by Thursday morning. /96

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

A very cold, dry airmass will continue to filter into the local
area through Thursday as a large Canadian high pressure system
slowly pushes southeastward. Even under mostly sunny skies during
the afternoons, highs for today will only top out in 40s, and
highs for tomorrow and Thursday will be in the upper 40s to low
50s. Lows for both tonight and Wednesday night will plummet into
the 20s areawide. A Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect
through 9 am this morning across the entire area for apparent
temperatures (wind chills) in the 15 to 20 degree range. Another
advisory will likely be needed for tonight for similar wind chill
values. /96 /22

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

A weak ridge will move eastward Thursday night, as a potent trough
swings into the Plains. Southwest flow aloft will help to filter
in moisture, while several shortwaves round the based of the
trough. Meanwhile, surface cyclogenesis will occur off the
southeast Texas Coast and this low will slide along the coast
through the first part of the short term period. Rain chances will
increase from west to east late Thursday night and continue
through much of the day on Friday. There remains considerable
uncertainty with regard to the type of precipitation expected, at
least initially. Temperatures Thursday evening will fall into the
mid to upper 30s prior to the onset of precip and increasing WAA
as the surface lows moves closer to the area. Drier air in the
lower levels will increase the potential for surface temperatures
to fall to near freezing just as the precip begins to move into
the area. This will set the stage for a brief period of
snow/sleet, generally across areas north of US 84. WAA will
quickly warm the vertical column early Friday morning, and any
wintry precip will transition to all rain before any accumulations
or impacts occur. One thing to keep in mind is that just a 1 to 2
degree difference in temperature could change the precipitation
type, so this is something we`ll continue to monitor. Trends have
been in our favor keeping all wintry precip accumulations north of
our area, but still, something to check back on.

Rain will continue across the entire area through much of the day
Friday, with highs warming into the lower 40s across the north to
60s along the coast. Rain chances will come to an end Friday night
as the surface low moves east of the area. The trough will swing
through the region on Saturday, with flow aloft becoming
northwesterly. This will keep dry and cold conditions in place
through the weekend, with highs on Saturday only warming into the
40s and overnight lows falling into the 20s. Sunday will be a
little warmer, though temps will struggle to warm into the lower
50s. Similar conditions are anticipated for the start of the new
work week, with highs into the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.
/73



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      26  51  38  60  32  48  29  56 /   0   0  60 100  50   0   0  10
Pensacola   29  51  42  64  36  48  32  54 /   0   0  20  90  70   0   0  10
Destin      32  53  43  65  40  51  35  56 /   0   0  10  80  80  10   0  10
Evergreen   22  49  32  51  31  46  24  54 /   0   0  40 100  70   0   0  10
Waynesboro  21  48  32  43  29  46  23  53 /   0   0  80 100  20   0   0  10
Camden      20  46  31  43  29  43  21  51 /   0   0  60 100  60   0   0  10
Crestview   23  51  34  61  35  48  26  56 /   0   0  20  80  80   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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