294
FXUS64 KMOB 021203
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
603 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

 - A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf
   waters late Sunday night into Monday morning.

 -Patchy frost will be possible well inland late Sunday night into
  early Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Now through Saturday...

A closed upper low sweeps east over the Southeast through the weekend
into the coming week, with a piece of shortwave energy swinging
around the base of this low, over the Gulf. A reinforcing front
moves over the Southeast later tonight through Sunday in response,
with a drier airmass (and precipitable h20 values around 0.2"-0.3")
moving over the forecast area by Monday morning. A decently dry
airmass ahead of the coming front (precipitable h20 values less than
1.0") will help to limit precipitation over land areas and most
water areas of the forecast area. The great majority of the guidance
is dry later today into tonight. The exception is the latest SREF
painting isolated rainshowers along the eastern border of the
forecast area. Previous runs of the models painted more rainshowers
over the forecast area with the passing front, but there has been a
trend of shifting the rainshowers well east of the forecast area the
last few runs. Will continue this trend with the current package.
Patchy frost is a possibility later tonight into Monday morning,
mainly north of Highway 84, and in localities where winds drop to
near calm.

Monday on, upper level high pressure centered over Texas shifts east
over the northern Gulf coast, then a bit south over the Gulf proper.
Surface high pressure shifts east over the Southeast before stalling
into mid week, with northerly flow becoming southerly by the end of
the week. The flow is light, so moisture return is slow. The result
is a dry forecast, with temperatures warming to well above seasonal
norms.

Taking a closer look at temperatures, seasonable high temperatures
today drop to below seasonal 65-70 for Monday.  From there, high
temperatures rise to a well above seasonal upper 70s to around 80 by
Saturday. Low temperatures in the mid/upper 30s north of Highway 84
to upper 40s south of I-10 Sunday and Monday nights rise into the
mid 50s to around 60 by Friday night.

Offshore winds will counter-balance an increasing tidal cycle to keep
the risk of rip currents low into the middle of the coming week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Light northerly winds become a more moderate to at times strong
offshore Sunday night into Monday behind a front crossing area
waters. Surface high pressure moves over area waters mid week,
bringing light and variable winds. A light onshore flow returns
the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   72  47  68  49 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  49  69  52 /  10   0   0   0
Evergreen   73  39  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  67  38  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      68  39  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   73  40  69  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$