604
FXUS64 KMOB 062355
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
655 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A weak upper level low over the north central Gulf nearly phases
with a shortwave trof moving across the mid Mississippi River valley
tonight into Monday, but instead continues a retrograde progression
towards the Texas coast by Tuesday. The shortwave trof meanwhile is
reinforced by another system advancing from the Plains, and the
resulting more well defined upper trof advances into the interior
eastern states through Wednesday, though also weakly extends into
eastern Texas. The upper trof pattern splits Wednesday into Friday,
with the northern portion moving off into the Atlantic or retreating
into eastern Canada, while the remaining much weaker portion slowly
drifts into the southeastern states. A surface ridge will persist
across the northern Gulf through Friday and promote a light
southwesterly surface flow over the forecast area. The sea breeze
looks to be main convective initiating mechanism through
Wednesday, and with deep layer moisture steadily increasing pops
trend from mostly chance to good chance on Monday to chance to
likely pops by Wednesday. Pops continue to trend higher, becoming
mostly categorical by Friday as a series of shortwaves move across
the area later in the week. Likely to categorical pops follow for
Saturday then mainly likely pops are anticipated for Sunday as
the series of shortwaves weaken but abundant deep layer moisture
remains in place. Will need to monitor for strong storms each day,
with water loading looking to be the main mechanism for pulse
type convective downdrafts. A low risk of rip currents is
anticipated through Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Lingering isolated showers and storms across the area will
continue to dissipate over the next couple hours. Another round
of isolated to scattered storms will develop Monday afternoon.
Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the
heavier activity. Winds will be light and variable through Monday
morning, becoming a light southwesterly flow by the afternoon.
/96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

No impacts anticipated other than higher winds and seas near
storms. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  92  73  92  73  93  74  91 /  10  50  10  50  10  70  30  80
Pensacola   77  91  77  92  77  92  77  91 /  20  50  10  40  20  60  40  80
Destin      79  91  79  92  79  92  80  91 /  30  50  10  30  20  50  40  70
Evergreen   72  95  72  95  72  94  72  92 /  10  50  10  40  10  50  20  70
Waynesboro  71  94  71  94  72  93  72  92 /  10  50  10  50  10  60  20  70
Camden      72  93  72  93  73  93  72  91 /  10  40  10  40  10  50  30  70
Crestview   72  94  72  94  72  93  73  92 /  10  60   0  50  10  70  20  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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