381
FXUS64 KMOB 300342
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1042 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the TAF cycle.
Winds remain light overnight while generally becoming westerly
through the day on Monday with a southwesterly component closer to
the coastline. Patchy, light fog is possible across south-central
Alabama in the pre-dawn hours, however, probabilities of fog
occurrence remain low. 07/mb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the TAF cycle.
Westerly to southwesterly winds remain gusty at times this evening
along the coast, but will subside after sunset. Patchy, light fog
is possible across south-central Alabama in the pre-dawn hours on
Monday, however, probabilities of fog occurrence remain low. 07/mb

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

The large mid/upper deep low pressure system over the eastern CONUS
(centered over the vicinity of Kentucky) will slowly weaken to a
trough extending from New England to the lower Mississippi River by
late Monday night. The associated weak surface low will dissipate on
Monday, followed by surface high pressure nudging into our region
from the northwest by late Monday night. Dry conditions look to
continue through the near term as large scale subsidence dominates
the region. Lows tonight and Monday night should continue to range
in the lower to mid 60s over interior locations and in the upper 60s
to mid 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. Highs Monday will
again be warm in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. The rip current
risk will become LOW this evening and should remain LOW through
Thursday. /22

SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERMS...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

The forecast for mid week into the weekend continues to be a
challenge, especially Friday through Sunday. Guidance continues to
advertise a weakening upper level trough stretching from over the
eastern Conus to the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough leaves
the southern portion over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and
western Gulf of Mexico, being anchored between an upper ridge
building west over the Southern Plains, and building upper level
high pressure over the Caribbean. From late Thursday on,
inconsistency in both run to run and between the models is the
problem. The current runs are advertising the Caribbean upper ridge
building north over the East Coast late Thursday as a tropical wave
moves into the Gulf on the west side of the ridge. From there, more
shortwave energy moves into the upper trough, deepening it as it
moves east over the Southeast, shifting the Caribbean upper ridge
south in the process. The current guidance is advertising the
tropical wave either developing is an organized tropical system and
heading towards the northern Gulf coast(GFS) or remaining a less
developed surface low over the central Gulf (the rest of the
guidance), with differences in the eastward shifting upper trough
governing where the system goes. All move increased moisture inland
Thursday night into Friday, with precipitable h20 values over the
inland areas of the forecast area rising into the 1.9"-2.2" range
for Friday. From there, guidance is adverting drier air moving south
over the forecast area over the weekend. For this package, am again
discounting the outlier(GFS) and going with drier air moving south
across the forecast area. With respect to the upper dynamics, this
package is governed by the tropical wave moving into the central
Gulf of Mexico before taking a more easterly path as the upper
trough shifts further south over the Gulf. With all that said, the
increase in moisture will bring an increase in PoPs the end of the
week, topping out on Friday, then decreasing through the weekend as
drier air moves in. Will continue to monitor, as the play between
upper trough and ridge for the end of the week into the weekend
continues in the guidance. NHC is giving the system 50/50 odds of
being an organized tropical system at this time.

High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 are expected Tuesday
into Thursday. An uptick in cloud cover and southerly push of
moisture towards the northern Gulf coast will bring an increase in
cloud cover for Friday through Saturday, with a decrease in daytime
heating. Low to mid 80s are expected for Friday and Saturday. Sunday
is a wildcard at this point, with cooler northerly flow keeping high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s.  Low temperatures remain on the
more comfortable side, with low to mid 60s along and north of
Highway 84 Monday through Wednesday nights before seeing a slight
uptick for Thursday and Friday nights as radiational cooling
limiting cloud cover increases.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

A light westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail through
Monday evening followed by a light diurnal flow pattern through
Tuesday as high pressure builds over the marine area. Winds will
shift easterly mid-week and increase to moderate to occasional
strong while shifting northeasterly by late in the work week. A
significant increase in seas is also expected late this week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  88  69  91  69  90  69  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pensacola   71  87  72  89  72  88  72  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  30
Destin      74  87  74  88  73  88  73  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  30
Evergreen   63  88  66  89  65  89  65  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  63  86  65  87  65  88  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      63  84  63  86  65  87  63  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   64  89  67  91  66  90  66  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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