315
FXUS64 KMOB 021131
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
531 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Strong flow will likely create hazardous conditions for small
   craft over the open Gulf waters through mid afternoon today.

 - A high rip current risk remains in effect the beaches of
   Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A surface low passes just south of the forecast area overnight
before continuing into the central Florida panhandle early Tuesday
morning. A large rain shield over much of the area is starting to
break up over southeastern Mississippi, and the precipitation is
expected to end from west to east overnight into early Tuesday
morning as the surface low exits to the east. Current indications
are that a warm front extending eastward from the surface low will
mostly likely not be able to lift into the western Florida
panhandle before the system exits to the east, thus the potential
for strong storms looks low. Other than a small chance for rain
over the eastern fringe of the area Tuesday morning, dry
conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday.

A positively tilted upper trof which extends from the north
central states to near the 4 Corners region becomes increasingly
elongated and splits through Thursday as the northern portion
continues across the northeast states. The remainder of the upper
trof will be located roughly over the central Plains to across the
southwest states on Thursday and into Friday. A surface low is
anticipated to develop over the northwest Gulf Wednesday night
into Thursday, then move across the marine portion of the forecast
area mainly during the day on Friday. Will need to closely monitor
the trajectory of the surface low, as there is the potential for
this feature to move across the coastal portions of the forecast
area which would then portend a risk of strong storm development.
Will have likely to categorical pops for both Thursday and Friday.

The upper trof evolves into a large and broad upper trof which
gradually progresses into the eastern states through Sunday with a
pair of vigorous embedded systems meanwhile traversing the upper
trof pattern. There is a lot of uncertainty with how this pattern
will play out, though at this point a surface low is anticipated
to develop over the Plains on Saturday and take an unusual path
into the southeast states on Sunday. Have gone with chance pops
for Saturday then dry conditions are expected to develop Saturday
night into Sunday and continue into Monday. The coldest night of
the forecast period looks to be Tuesday night when lows range from
the mid/upper 20s well inland to the mid/upper 30s at the coast.
The remainder of the forecast period will have lows near
seasonable values but a bit on the cool side. Highs on Wednesday
through Friday will be about 5-10 degrees below normal and
generally in the 50s except for near 60 at the coast. Daytime
highs then gradually moderate to the lower/mid 60s on Saturday
then dip to the mid 50s to lower 60s for Monday. A high risk of
rip currents is in effect Tuesday with a moderate risk for Tuesday
night. A low risk follows for Wednesday and Thursday then a
moderate risk is expected for Friday. A low risk follows for
Saturday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

IFR to LIFR ceilings remain prevalent across the area this morning
in the wake of a cold front. Expect these ceilings to persist
through late morning before improving back to MVFR for the
afternoon, perhaps improving back to VFR at least temporarily
during the late afternoon into early evening hours. An MVFR to IFR
ceiling may return across the region late tonight. Winds will be
breezy today out of the north at around 5 to 10 knots gusting
upwards of 20 knots at times. Winds relax tonight to around 5
knots across the area. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Moderate to strong easterly winds switch to the northwest overnight
then gradually diminishes to a light to moderate northerly flow
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Will mention Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution overnight for the bays and sounds in case winds
reach 15-20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the open
Gulf waters until 3 pm Tuesday, though could probably be canceled
earlier by midday for the near shore waters. Will leave to the
next shift to reassess. An easterly flow develops Wednesday night
into Thursday then switches to the north on Friday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      58  32  58  44 /  10   0   0  30
Pensacola   61  37  58  48 /  10   0   0  20
Destin      66  39  60  48 /  10   0   0  10
Evergreen   58  29  60  38 /  10   0   0  20
Waynesboro  49  26  56  38 /  10   0   0  30
Camden      53  27  54  35 /  10   0   0  10
Crestview   62  31  60  39 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$