903
FXUS64 KMOB 032333
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Overall not much going on around the northern Gulf coast,
especially when you see the severe storms ongoing across the mid-
south and Mississippi river valley. We are comfortably tucked up
under a rather expansive upper ridge over the western Atlantic.
With upper troughing to our west, deep southwesterly to southerly
flow has been pushing moisture northward across the area. However,
until the ridge breaks down and things get moving we do not
expect much in the way of rain at least through Friday. The
pattern finally gets moving by Saturday as the upper ridge finally
breaks down and a large upper trough slowly moves in from the
west. Isolated showers and storms will be possible west of I-65 on
Saturday as the influences of the upper trough moves in. The main
day for rain appears to be on Sunday as the main upper trough
moves in and a cold front slowly drifts into the area. Taking a
look at things, we may be able to sneak through this one without
too much in the way of severe weather. Kinematics will be in place
for the potential for some damaging winds and maybe a tornado or
two. However, the overall synoptic ascent associated with the
approaching jet streak does not seem to be timed up well for our
area. The jet streak is more of a glancing blow and then lifts out
before peak heating. This will likely result in the surface
boundary to lay out across the area and more of a heavy rain
threat to develop as storms train along the boundary. If a severe
threat were to materialize it would likely be east of I-65 across
south central Alabama around noon on Sunday. Rain will likely
persist into Monday as that upper trough slowly moves east and
several embedded shortwaves overspread the stalled boundary.
Finally by the beginning of the week, the upper trough moves
through as dry northwesterly flow builds in.

Temperatures will be warm through the week with highs continuing
in the 80s across most of the area. Cooler temperatures arrive
behind the front on Monday into Tuesday as temperatures drop into
the 70s for highs and lows in the 40s. With continued southerly
winds, a high risk of rip currents will likely continue into the
weekend.

BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Low-end MVFR to IFR ceilings are in place across the local area at
issuance time. Throughout the evening, ceilings are expected to
lower further, with IFR to LIFR ceilings anticipated through the
overnight hours. Some patchy fog may also attempt to develop which
could bring visibilities down into the MVFR to possibly IFR range.
Best signal for patchy fog appears to be over coastal counties.
Fog will dissipate after sunrise and ceilings should slowly rise
to low-end MVFR by the afternoon hours. Breezy southeasterly winds
will continue through the period. Gusts during the day on Friday
could reach up to 25-30 knots. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow continues
through Saturday. A cold front will move through the marine area on
Sunday with a northerly flow for early next week. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  84  69  82  69  76  52  67 /   0  10   0  20  60  90  60  40
Pensacola   70  78  70  78  70  77  57  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  90  80  60
Destin      69  78  69  77  71  77  61  69 /   0   0   0   0  10  80  90  70
Evergreen   67  86  65  84  67  77  53  67 /   0   0   0  10  30  90  70  40
Waynesboro  70  86  69  86  65  73  48  65 /   0  20   0  20  80  80  20  20
Camden      68  86  66  85  67  74  51  62 /   0   0   0  10  40  90  40  30
Crestview   65  84  64  83  68  80  57  69 /   0   0   0   0  10  90  80  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>632-650-
     670.

&&

$$

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