


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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007 FXUS64 KMOB 080547 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1247 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Throughout the period, upper-level ridging attempts to build across portions of the southeast US, however, it looks to have some trouble establishing itself across our local area through late week. This is due to a shortwave trough that moves in from the northwest on Wednesday and stalls over central MS/AL. This trough will help to keep our area underneath a weakness within the ridge. This, along with deep moisture in place, will allow for rain chances to increase through the week. Highest rain chances appear to be on Thursday and Friday (generally around 60-80% away from the immediate coast) as the shortwave makes its closest approach. The shortwave should dissipate by Saturday, allowing for the ridge to finally build into the area by Sunday and Monday. This should help to lower PoPs back down to around 40-60 percent. Activity throughout the period is expected to follow a typical diurnal summertime pattern, with showers and storms developing during the morning over our marine zones and along the coast, pulse-type storms developing during the afternoon hours along the sea breeze which spread inland via outflow boundary collisions, and activity eventually dissipating during the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. As we typically see with this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as very heavy rainfall. Highs each day will generally top out in the low to mid 90s. We should stay just below Heat Advisory criteria through at least Sunday, although heat indices could potentially rise to as high as 102-107 degrees in many spots. As the ridge builds into the area, we may have our first shot at exceeding our Heat Advisory criteria on Monday as heat indices in a few areas could climb to as high as 109. We will monitor trends over the coming days. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast. The rip current risk remains low through much of the period. There is an indication that strengthening onshore flow may help to increase the rip current risk to a moderate risk for our Florida beaches during the Wednesday night through Thursday night timeframe. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 General VFR conditions with light southwest to westerly winds at 05z are expected to last through the rest of the night. Winds are expected to shift to southerly through the day as a seabreeze develops and moves inland. Upper end MVFR/VFR conditions are expected through the morning into the afternoon, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms bringing local drops in conditions to mid/low level MVFR. Locally strong and variable winds are also possible in and near the stronger thunderstorms. This convection is expected to quickly decrease in coverage during the evening with the loss of the day`s heating. Also, winds well inland are expected to become light, with westerly winds around 5 knots along and south of I-10 expected through the evening. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow prevails through the week. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 92 73 91 74 91 74 91 / 10 50 20 70 20 60 10 50 Pensacola 77 92 78 91 78 90 77 91 / 10 40 20 60 20 50 20 40 Destin 80 92 80 91 80 91 79 91 / 10 30 20 40 20 50 20 40 Evergreen 72 94 72 93 72 92 72 93 / 20 50 20 70 30 60 20 60 Waynesboro 71 93 71 91 71 92 71 93 / 10 60 20 80 20 60 10 50 Camden 72 92 72 91 72 91 72 90 / 20 50 30 70 30 60 20 50 Crestview 73 94 73 93 73 91 73 92 / 10 50 10 80 20 70 10 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob