


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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604 FXUS64 KMOB 062355 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 655 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A weak upper level low over the north central Gulf nearly phases with a shortwave trof moving across the mid Mississippi River valley tonight into Monday, but instead continues a retrograde progression towards the Texas coast by Tuesday. The shortwave trof meanwhile is reinforced by another system advancing from the Plains, and the resulting more well defined upper trof advances into the interior eastern states through Wednesday, though also weakly extends into eastern Texas. The upper trof pattern splits Wednesday into Friday, with the northern portion moving off into the Atlantic or retreating into eastern Canada, while the remaining much weaker portion slowly drifts into the southeastern states. A surface ridge will persist across the northern Gulf through Friday and promote a light southwesterly surface flow over the forecast area. The sea breeze looks to be main convective initiating mechanism through Wednesday, and with deep layer moisture steadily increasing pops trend from mostly chance to good chance on Monday to chance to likely pops by Wednesday. Pops continue to trend higher, becoming mostly categorical by Friday as a series of shortwaves move across the area later in the week. Likely to categorical pops follow for Saturday then mainly likely pops are anticipated for Sunday as the series of shortwaves weaken but abundant deep layer moisture remains in place. Will need to monitor for strong storms each day, with water loading looking to be the main mechanism for pulse type convective downdrafts. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated through Thursday. /29 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Lingering isolated showers and storms across the area will continue to dissipate over the next couple hours. Another round of isolated to scattered storms will develop Monday afternoon. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Winds will be light and variable through Monday morning, becoming a light southwesterly flow by the afternoon. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 No impacts anticipated other than higher winds and seas near storms. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 92 73 92 73 93 74 91 / 10 50 10 50 10 70 30 80 Pensacola 77 91 77 92 77 92 77 91 / 20 50 10 40 20 60 40 80 Destin 79 91 79 92 79 92 80 91 / 30 50 10 30 20 50 40 70 Evergreen 72 95 72 95 72 94 72 92 / 10 50 10 40 10 50 20 70 Waynesboro 71 94 71 94 72 93 72 92 / 10 50 10 50 10 60 20 70 Camden 72 93 72 93 73 93 72 91 / 10 40 10 40 10 50 30 70 Crestview 72 94 72 94 72 93 73 92 / 10 60 0 50 10 70 20 90 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob