257
FXUS64 KMOB 301154
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
654 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours.
Morning coastal showers and storms will again possibly develop
impacting TAF sites before moving farther inland during the day.
Some brief and localized MVFR/IFR conditions could prevail near
the showers and storms. Light southwesterly to variable winds
tonight become light northwesterly. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

An upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area through
Monday. This will maintain a generally northerly flow pattern
aloft. The combination of weak shortwaves rotating around this
ridge, daytime heating and the seabreeze circulation will maintain
scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms each day.
The storms will be most numerous near the coast each morning and
spreading inland through the afternoon hours, gradually
dissipating during the evening hours. Another hot day expected
today with highs in the mid 90s. This combined with dew point
temps in the mid to upper 70s for most locations on Sunday will
result in heat indices likely peaking in the 108-110 degree range,
at least for a period of time, for many locations Sunday this
afternoon. Similar conditions are expected on Monday. As a result,
a Heat Advisory remains in effect today. Another advisory is
possible on Monday as well. A high risk of rip currents remains in
effect today followed by moderate on Monday. /13

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

An upper high pressure system centered over the ARKLATEX region will
shift eastward over the southeast states Tuesday through Friday,
becoming somewhat flattened the latter half of the work week as a
train of shortwaves pass over the Lower Midwest. The upper high will
then get nudge eastward off the coast as we head into the weekend as
an upper trough advances eastward over the Mississippi River and
Great Lakes regions. A weak surface trough across the area Monday
night and Tuesday will be replaced by a ridge extending from the
Atlantic westward across the northern Gulf through the end of the
week. Ample moisture below 700mb will remain over the region
throughout the week, with scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, followed a more scattered
(typical summertime 40% coverage) as we roll into the 4th of July
and beyond. As this time, it looks like it will be dry across the
entire area the evening of the 4th of July with heat indices around
sunset in the mid 90s.

Summertime heat persists this week and into next weekend with highs
topping out in the 90s each day. Given the moisture over the region,
dewpoints will be juicy and thus the heat indices will approach and
potentially exceed Heat Advisory criteria each day.

Beach Note: A LOW risk of rip currents is expected to return Tuesday
through the 4th of July. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  76  96  75  93  76  91  76 /  70  30  50  10  50  20  70  10
Pensacola   92  77  94  78  89  79  90  78 /  70  40  50  30  70  30  60  10
Destin      90  79  93  80  89  79  90  79 /  70  40  50  40  70  30  60  10
Evergreen   93  74  96  73  92  73  93  73 /  70  30  40  10  60  10  70  10
Waynesboro  94  73  95  70  96  73  93  73 /  60  30  20   0  40  10  60   0
Camden      94  73  93  72  91  73  93  73 /  60  30  10   0  40  10  50  10
Crestview   94  74  96  75  92  74  93  74 /  70  30  50  20  70  20  70  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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