619
FXUS64 KMOB 162348
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
648 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A lobe of shortwave energy sweeps around the base of a closed
upper low passing north of the Southeast tonight through Saturday,
with a weak cold front moving south over the Southeast tonight
into Saturday in response before stalling between the I-20 and
Highway 84 corridors Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to affect areas north of Highway 84
later tonight into Saturday morning as the vort lobe passes.
Another round of shortwave energy passes Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night, bringing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
further south, to near the northern border of Florida. Am not
expecting any rowdy storms with the first round of showers and
thunderstorms tonight over the forecast area. Saturday afternoon
is a different story. MLCapes rise into the 2000-2500J/kg range
along and north of Highway 84, with DCapes in the 800-1100J/kg
range and EBWD shear rising to around 40kts over the same area.
Enough for strong to marginally severe storms, with strong winds
the primary threat. Even with the upper ridge weakening over the
forecast area and nearby Saturday afternoon, mid level lapse rates
remain low enough to limit hail development. Model soundings show
a generally linear profile, with little directional shear, so am
not expecting any organized storms. With storm movement in a
generally easterly direction, overrunning of the surface boundary
is generally not expected, but if a local surge from a storm moves
a portion of the boundary south enough, local water issues become
a possiblity, albeit small one. Will need to monitor the
afternoon and early evening hours for the rowdy storms.

Upper level high pressure remains in control through the Near
Term, with temperatures remaining well above seasonal norms. High
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 95 are expected this
afternoon and again Saturday, with mid 80s along the coast. Low
temperatures in the 70-76 degree range are expected tonight and
Saturday night. Heat Indices are expected to top out in the mid
90s to near 100 this afternoon, with upper 90s to low 100s
expected Saturday.

A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents this afternoon will drop to a Low
tonight. /16

An upper ridge over the central states on Sunday progresses across
the eastern states through Tuesday and is followed by an upper
trof advancing into the Plains. A series of shortwaves progressing
mostly across the central portions of Alabama/Mississippi on
Sunday may allow for some isolated convection to develop over the
northernmost portion of the forecast area, but otherwise dry
conditions prevail through Tuesday afternoon. The upper trof
amplifies while continuing into the eastern states Wednesday into
Thursday, then begins to move off into the western Atlantic on
Friday. An associated surface low brings a cold front through the
forecast area Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, and will
have slight chance to chance pops Tuesday night into Wednesday,
then dry conditions follow for Wednesday night through Friday as a
surface ridge builds into the region. Highs on Sunday through
Tuesday range from the mid 80s at the coast to the lower 90s
further inland, then trend cooler to the upper 70s to lower 80s
for Thursday. Friday will see highs mostly in the lower 80s. Lows
Sunday night range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s
closer to the coast then moderate a bit through Tuesday night to
range from the lower to mid 70s. In the wake of the cold front,
lows Wednesday night range from around 60 well inland to the
mid/upper 60s at the coast, then lows Thursday night range from
the lower/mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s at the immediate
coast. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated for Sunday
through Tuesday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

MVFR ceilings will spread from the coast northward over the entire
region this evening through around 2am. Ceilings will continue to
lower to IFR levels over inland areas east of the Alabama River
late tonight until shortly after sunrise Saturday where patchy
fog should result in MVFR visibilities. The fog will dissipate
and ceilings will lift by 16/17z. Light southwesterly to southerly
winds overnight will increase to around 10 knots with gusts to
near 20 knots around mid-morning Saturday. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected through the
forecast. Outside of any thunderstorms, no issues are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  90  71  87  71  88  72  88 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   74  87  73  85  74  86  75  86 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      75  85  75  85  75  86  76  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   70  93  69  92  67  93  69  92 /   0  30  10  10   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  71  92  69  92  69  93  70  93 /   0  30  10  10   0   0   0  10
Camden      71  90  69  91  68  92  70  92 /   0  30  20  20   0   0   0  10
Crestview   69  92  68  91  67  92  68  91 /   0  20   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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