859
FXUS64 KMOB 060519
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1219 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Now through Tuesday...

An upper level trough meanders a bit west over the Southeast into
Saturday before an upper ridge off the East Coast builds west over
the region Sunday into the coming week, shifting the upper trough to
over the Southern Plains. A band of higher moisture levels
(precipitable h20 levels > 2") along and south of the coast remains
there into the weekend before shifting inland as Atlantic moisture
moves inland over the Southeast as flow on the south side of a
surface ridge stretching southwest along the East Coast becomes more
organized. Best PoPs remain along and south of the coast into the
weekend, then move inland over eastern portions of the forecast area
over the weekend into the coming week as moisture levels increase.
Guidance is advertising an upper level shortwave moving west over
the Gulf on the south side of the upper ridge this weekend into the
coming week, providing an extra oomph to convection initiation along
and south of the coast. This convection is expected to continue to
follow the diurnal pattern present recently; showers and
thunderstorms forming along and south of the coast overnight into
the morning hours, then shifting onshore late morning through the
afternoon. Onshore convection may some rowdy storms, with MLCapes
rising to around 1500-2000J/kg. Add in drier air in the mid levels,
especially as one moves inland from the coast, and a few rowdy
storms are possible each afternoon/evening.

High temperatures remain around seasonal norms through most of the
forecast, with a bit of an uptick Tuesday. Upper 80s to around 90
expected. Heat Indices in the 95-100 degree range expected most
days. Low temperatures see a bit of a rise through the forecast,
starting out in the low 70s well north of I-10 mid to upper 70s
south to the coast Wednesday night. Mid to upper 70s are expected
Tuesday night.

Weak onshore flow and swell on area beaches will help to keep the
risk of Rip Currents Low into the weekend.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025

General VFR conditions were noted over most of the forecast area at
05z. Today`s convection has shifted offshore overnight, with TAF
sites along and south of I-10 possible affected. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon, bringing local drops in conditions to low end MVFR
levels in the stronger storms. Southerly winds around 5 knots
outside of the current convection will become light overnight,
then increase to east to southeast 5 to 10 knots during the day
Wednesday.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Light and variable winds are expected the rest of the week before
becoming a more organized easterly this weekend into the coming
week. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  90  72  89  73  89  73  90 /  30  60  20  60  30  60  40  70
Pensacola   76  90  75  88  75  89  76  90 /  40  60  40  70  40  60  50  70
Destin      77  90  76  89  76  89  77  90 /  50  60  50  70  50  60  50  70
Evergreen   71  90  70  89  70  89  71  91 /  20  40  10  50  20  50  20  60
Waynesboro  69  90  69  90  70  89  70  91 /  10  30  10  30  10  40  20  50
Camden      71  90  70  87  70  89  71  90 /  10  30  10  30  10  40  20  50
Crestview   72  90  71  88  71  89  72  90 /  30  60  20  70  30  60  30  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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