788
FXUS64 KMOB 060019
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
719 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Rain showers
currently over the Gulf are expected to remain south of the coast
overnight, but then move inland Sunday, mainly over areas southeast
of I-65. General VFR conditions are expected outside of the
convection, with local drops to MVFR in the heavier showers. Winds
are expected to remain northeast to easterly through the forecast.
/16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The upper shortwave trough that brought the steady rain to our area
yesterday has moved off to our east, allowing for a drier
northwesterly flow to push into the area. At the surface, a weak
boundary continues to slowly push further and further offshore.
Continued overrunning of the front is expected through the weekend
however. With the front being so far south and drier air filtering
in from the northwest, rain chances will likely be confined
offshore, or a very low PoP just along the immediate coast. The
overrunning will result in broken to overcast cloud cover across our
forecast area through the period, however. Given a tightening
pressure gradient over our marine waters (as a result of Tropical
Storm Milton, likely to become Hurricane Milton, moving east across
the Gulf to the south of our Marine Area), we expect that seas
offshore will gradually increase through the weekend and this will
lead to at least a MODERATE rip current risk through Sunday. Surf
heights will increase slightly on Sunday as well. Temperatures will
remain mild given the cloud cover, with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s at the coast. Highs on Sunday
look to be in the low to mid 80s across entire area. DS/12

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Upper trough and deep layer moisture axis slips southward out over
the Gulf as we enter the new week. South of this feature, the top
feature in the weather VFR conditions are expected through the
forecast. Headlines will be Tropical Storm Milton which is
forecast to become an intensifying hurricane over the warm waters
of the southern Gulf by Monday. Milton is forecast to track
eastward and well south of the local area. The only expected
impacts looks to be focused along the beaches and marine areas.
The risk of dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents looks to
increase, becoming HIGH by early next week along with building
surf, upwards of 3-4 feet, as higher wave packets/long period
swell arrives along the central Gulf coast. No land impacts
expected.

We open the week with a rain-free pattern which is only reinforced
by a strong cold front which makes passage by Tuesday, in
combination with strong deep layer subsidence on the northwest
periphery of Milton moving into the eastern Gulf.

Overnight lows will start off mild with numbers by daybreak Monday
in the lower half of the 60s interior to 67 to 72 coast. In the
wake of the front, Tuesday AM lows dip into the mid to upper 50s
up along the US Hwy 84 corridor. Mid to upper 60s coast. Highs
Monday in the mid to upper 80s, trend lowest into the lower 80s
interior while mid 80s closer to the coast. /10

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The National Hurricane Center takes Milton eastward over the central
FL Peninsula mid week, kicking out to across the southwest Atlantic
by the end of the week. Along the beaches, we may continue to be
dealing with lingering rip currents and swell packets from Milton on
Wednesday with conditions abating the latter half of the week after
Milton exits the Gulf. Dry forecast continues as surface high
pressure builds and expands over the eastern US and Deep South.
Highs will only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s for much of
the medium range period. Lows turn cooler, dipping into the 50s
across inland communities with lower 60s at the beaches. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong east-northeasterly winds will
continue through Sunday. Seas will increase to around 4 to 5 feet
offshore through the weekend and small craft will need to exercise
caution. The east to northeasterly flow will likely increase over
the Gulf waters through the day on as what will then be Hurricane
Milton passes east just to the south of our marine area. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be required by that time. We will continue
to monitor the latest on Milton and make adjustments as needed
through mid-next week.  DS/12

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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