Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
786 FXUS64 KMOB 140016 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 716 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 An upper ridge will build over our region from the west through midweek. A large upper trough over the western U.S. will shift eastward the latter half of the week and over the weekend, with an associated surface low pressure area lifting north across the northern Plains into south-central Canada. The 12z Run of the GFS has the axis of this trough crossing over the Mississippi River Saturday night. The ECMWF timing is starting to become better align with the GFS, but still lags behind by about 12 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will return for the weekend, with the highest rain chances (40-50%) likely occurring Saturday night through noon Sunday, and then taper off from west to east through Sunday night. At this time, we are anticipating around one-half to one inch of widespread rainfall with this system. Until then, it remains a temperature and low afternoon relative humidity forecast into midweek with dry weather conditions persisting through Friday night. High temperatures will range from 85-90 degrees (around 6-11 degrees above normal) through Thursday before cooling slightly into the middle 80s on Friday and the lower to middle 80s over the weekend due to increasing cloud cover and rain chances. Low temperatures tonight will be near normal, with middle 50s inland and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the immediate coast. Lows will trend warmer throughout the week, and should be 2-7 degrees above normal Wednesday night, and a whopping 12-17 degrees above normal Saturday night (middle to upper 60s inland and around 70 degrees along the immediate coast) due to a good fetch of southerly winds. Beach Forecast: The LOW rip current risk persist through Thursday night. Increasing low level southeasterly flow across the region will help increase the rip current risk by the weekend across our local beaches, with a Moderate risk returning by Friday and potentially a High risk of rip currents this weekend. /22 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 VFR conditions will persist throughout the forecast with a light northerly wind increasing to around 10 knots during the day. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A light offshore flow will prevail through Thursday morning, with the exception of a brief onshore flow Wednesday afternoon into early evening associated with the diurnal cycle. A light easterly to southeasterly flow will return Thursday afternoon, with winds gradually increasing late in the week along with building seas. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 58 86 59 86 59 86 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 62 86 64 85 64 84 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 65 85 65 84 65 84 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 54 89 55 90 56 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 54 86 56 86 56 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 54 87 54 87 56 88 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 53 88 55 87 55 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob