693
FXUS64 KMOB 272100
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
400 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Now through Friday...

An upper ridge over the Southeast sees an eastward movement as an
upper level shortwave trough over the Plains approaches the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. A northwest to southeast banding of
moisture levels (precipitable h20 levels around 1.0" over the
southwestern third of the forecast area) sees a clockwise rotation
as low level flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley becomes
more southerly. By 00z/7pm Friday evening, precipitable h20 values
range from 1.0" or less east of the Tombigbee River to near 1.5"
along the western border of the forecast area. With the increase in
low level dynamics along with moisture levels, am expecting
convection to form west of the forecast area Friday afternoon,
though may see a few dynamically driven showers encroach on our
Mississippi Counties.

Temperatures remain at above seasonal levels through Friday. Am
still expecting temperatures to top out in the 80-85 degree range
today. Temperatures see a bit of a downtick as cloud cover increases
along with stronger flow off the Gulf (SSTs in the upper 60s over
the north-central Gulf), topping out in the low 80s well north of I-
10, mid 70s to around 80 south to the coast. Tonight, temperatures
are expected to bottom out in the mid 50s northeast of a Camden to
Crestview line, around 60 over southern counties of inland southeast
Mississippi and near the coast.

A rip risk of Rip Currents is expected to begin to increase
beginning tonight, to a High Risk by Friday, as the onshore flow
becomes more organized. An RP.S has been issued for area beaches.
Will monitor for a High Surf Advisory, especially if the higher
winds over the Gulf continues.
/16


Friday Night through Monday Night...

An active, yet rather tricky forecast continues to be the main
story for this period. A southern stream shortwave trough is
expected to lift northeastward across our local area. This will
help to lift an associated warm front northward during the day on
Saturday. Guidance this morning has come in much slower with the
shortwave, with its axis now passing overhead Saturday night. For
Saturday, storms will likely be ongoing over portions of Louisiana
Friday night and will propagate from southwest to northeast
across our area during the day on Saturday. The slower trough now
has the showers/storms moving into the region starting during the
late morning hours and persisting through the afternoon and into
the evening hours. Overall environment has not changed much over
the past day. Instability out ahead of the warm front is minimal
due to poor lapse rates and the lingering cool, dry airmass in
place. In the wake of the front, WAA commences and much higher
dewpoints begin to push in. Guidance continues to keep CAPE values
rather minimal on Saturday which should help in limiting strong
to severe storm development. Still, however, if instability does
trend up, then storms will be able to utilize deep layer shear
around 25-30 knots, low-level shear potentially up to 30 knots,
and largely streamwise hodographs in the lowest 2km, possibly
leading to a mixed mode of multi-cellular clusters or even a few
`mini-spinny` discrete cells. As stated yesterday, this is a
highly conditional, and marginal setup, so we will keep an eye on
trends as we approach Saturday.

Showers and storms are now expected to continue through Saturday
evening and potentially through the overnight hours as the shortwave
starts to pull away from the region. In comparison to yesterday,
there are two changes which could actually lead to additional storm
redevelopment across the area on Sunday. The first is the upper-
level flow pattern in place. The slower shortwave looks to weaken
(or even prevent) the influence of an upper ridge from building in
behind it, leaving a light, diffluent zonal flow pattern in place
for Sunday. The second is that with how late storms continued
through the overnight hours, outflow boundaries should likely reside
across the area. Strong heating during the day, as well as steeper
lapse rates, will give way to a very unstable environment on Sunday.
Therefore, we are now anticipating scattered thunderstorms to
redevelop during the day on Sunday as a result of daytime heating
and forced by outflow/sea breeze boundary collisions and the subtle
diffluence aloft. Shear appears a bit weaker than Saturday so these
storms may be more pulse-like in nature (similar to a typical summer-
time pattern) and storms could carry a brief hail/wind threat. These
storms should quickly dissipate during the evening hours as we lose
daytime heating.

Finally, by Sunday night, all eyes point to our north as showers and
storms develop over the Tennessee River Valley in response to a
shortwave moving across the central US and a surface cold front
pushing to the southeast. These storms should start to approach and
enter our northern counties sometime Monday morning, likely in the
form of an MCS. Although ample shear and plenty of instability is in
place, the big question that remains is if there will be enough
forcing. The best forcing still looks to be more of a glancing blow
to our area, with only subtle height falls and weak diffluence
aloft. Therefore, I still think that storms will be weakening as
they enter the area. The caveat will be a developing upper jet that
pushes across the Deep South during the day on Monday. Depending on
how far south it moves, it could provide a secondary brief window of
favorable ascent to our area. This could allow for storms to
redevelop/restrengthen during the day on Monday prior to finally
pushing offshore by the late afternoon hours, with damaging winds
likely being the main threat. Once again, we will continue to
monitor trends closely over the coming days.

A High Risk of rip currents will be in place for the weekend as surf
heights approach 4-5 feet. /96


Tuesday through Thursday...

There is unfortunately considerable uncertainty with the upper
level pattern during the remainder of the period, with some
guidance developing a substantial upper trof over the western half
of the CONUS while other guidance develops an upper ridge. For our
area, there is fairly good agreement on a light return flow
developing on Tuesday which continues through Thursday.
Uncertainties with the upper level pattern affect whether or not a
series of shortwaves will move across the area and bring rain
chances to the area. /29 /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions expected under high clouds. Southeasterly winds
around 5 knots expected through tonight. An approaching system will
increase winds speeds Friday to around 15 knots by noontime.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

A tighter pressure gradient than anticipated over the northern Gulf
is creating a more moderate southeasterly flow over open Gulf waters
and Mobile Bay. Am expecting near or SCEC conditions to continue
into the weekend, but will need to monitor for an SC.Y, especially
Friday night into the weekend. A cold front will move over area
waters Monday night, bringing a moderate offshore flow Tuesday.
Onshore flow returns mid week as surface high pressure passes
quickly north of the forecast area late Tuesday into Tuesday
night.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      60  80  63  76  64  81  67  82 /  10   0  10  60  50  40  10  60
Pensacola   63  74  65  75  66  77  68  79 /  10   0   0  40  50  50  10  70
Destin      62  74  65  75  66  75  68  76 /   0   0   0  30  50  50  10  60
Evergreen   55  82  60  81  63  83  65  82 /   0   0   0  40  50  40  20  80
Waynesboro  58  82  60  77  63  85  66  81 /  10  10  10  70  40  40  40  80
Camden      57  81  60  77  63  83  66  80 /   0  10   0  40  40  40  30  80
Crestview   54  80  59  80  63  81  65  82 /   0   0   0  30  50  50  10  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through late Sunday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through late Sunday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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