873
FXUS64 KMOB 061120
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A southerly flow pattern aloft becomes established later today
and lingers through early next week as an upper-level low slowly
retrogrades westward across the northern Gulf. This will allow for
deep moisture to slowly advect back into the local region over
the next couple of days. Flow aloft becomes light and variable by
the middle to latter part of next week as upper ridging attempts
to build in across the southeast US. Several shortwave impulses,
however, are expected to move around/within the ridge. This may
help to prevent the ridge from firmly establishing itself
overhead, and instead it may keep our local region underneath a
weakness within the ridge. Therefore, am anticipating rain chances
to gradually increase throughout the week, with isolated to
scattered showers and storms expected for today and into the start
of the week, becoming scattered to numerous by the middle to
latter part of the week. Activity is expected to follow a typical
diurnal summertime pattern, with pulse-type storms developing
during the afternoon hours along the sea breeze, spreading inland
via outflow boundary collisions, and eventually dissipating during
the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. As we typically
see with this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger
storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail,
as well as very heavy rainfall. Highs each day will generally top
out in the low to mid 90s. At this point, it still looks like we
should stay just below Heat Advisory criteria, although heat
indices could potentially rise to as high as 102-107 degrees by
midweek. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to
upper 70s along the coast. The rip current risk remains low
through midweek, potentially increasing to moderate by late next
week as a persistent onshore flow becomes established. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions were noted across the forecast area at 11z.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
morning into the afternoon hours. Drops in conditions to low end
MVFR/IFR possible in the stronger storms, along with locally
variable and gusty winds. Light northerly winds are expected the
rest of the night, becoming a generally southerly 5 to 10 knots by
afternoon as a seabreeze moves inland.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A light diurnal flow pattern continues through tonight,
featuring offshore winds overnight and onshore winds during the
afternoon. By the beginning to middle of next week, a more
persistent light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow
pattern becomes established. Otherwise, no impacts are expected
other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms. /96

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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