870
FXUS64 KMOB 071142
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Now Through Sunday Night...

The upper ridge over the Gulf and Deep South will retreat to the
southwest over the weekend as a large deep closed low pressure
system exits south central Canada and settles over the western
Great Lakes region. A series and perturbations and shortwaves will
pass over our region today in nearly zonal flow, especially on
Sunday with the closest approach of the low pressure system`s
base. Meanwhile, a low-level ridge will persist from the Atlantic
across the Gulf, maintaining light southwesterly winds across our
area. Adequate moisture will be available for at least isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as precipitable waters
values hover close to 1.8 inches. With stronger upper shortwave
activity on Sunday, and PWAT`s ticking up to around 2 inches, we
expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Rip
Current risk will remain Moderate over the weekend.

Very warm temperatures will persist over the weekend with high 3
to 6 degrees above normal, ranging from 90 to 95 degrees interior
areas, around 90 degrees closer to the coast, with mid 80s at the
beaches and barrier islands. Apparent temperatures (heat indices)
should range from the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees across
the entire area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the middle
70s inland, with upper middle 70s along the coast. These temps are
around 7 to 11 degrees above normal. /22

Monday Through Friday...

An active pattern is expected through the middle of next week as
an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Although we
remain in a general northwesterly to westerly flow pattern aloft,
multiple embedded shortwaves are expected to push across the area
through Wednesday.. the more prominent waves moving through on
Monday and Tuesday. These shortwaves, paired with deep, rich
moisture in place, as well as diffluent flow in the upper-levels,
will lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
the first half of the week. At the surface, a boundary (likely a
remnant outflow from this weekend`s storms) will remain draped
across the local area through at least Tuesday before lifting back
to the north. This boundary will help to serve as a focus for
storms to develop and move along. As mentioned yesterday, one
thing we will have to monitor throughout this period is the
development, organization, and progression of upstream storms that
develop over the Southern Plains in response to the train of
shortwaves. For Monday, guidance is hinting at an MCS moving
across the Deep South throughout the day, possibly reaching the
local area by the afternoon hours. There are still several
questions we still need answered with this system, such as: 1) how
far east will it be able to travel before weakening? 2) if it
manages to get here, how strong will it be? 3) if it weakens prior
to arrival, will it be able to redevelop due to daytime heating?
These details will likely be ironed out in the next day or so once
we begin receiving hi-res model data. For now, SPC has outlooked
much of our area in a Slight Risk of severe weather for Monday,
with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Looking at
Tuesday, with the overall synoptics remaining nearly unchanged
from Monday, I would not be surprised if we find ourselves in a
similar situation for Tuesday, with a potential MCS approaching
and moving through the area. This potential can be seen in CIPS
Analogs, where both Monday and Tuesday show similar severe signals
across the northern Gulf Coast and into the local area. We will
monitor trends closely over the coming days. In addition to the
severe risk, isolated instances of flooding cannot be ruled out
(mainly in urban/low-lying areas) due to the multiple rounds of
storms expected across several days.

By late Wednesday and into Thursday, the upper trough over the
Great Lakes will be exiting to the northeast. Upper-level ridging
begins to build over the Southeast US helping to push the train of
shortwaves away from the local area. This likely should mark the
return of a typical summertime pattern, with scattered to numerous
pulse-type storms developing during the afternoon and dissipating
by the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures
through much of next week will be slightly cooler due to cloud
cover and higher convective coverage. Highs will generally range
from the mid 80s to the low 90s and lows will range from the upper
60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Sunday, along with light
mainly southwesterly winds. Isolated showers along the coast will
dissipate by noon, followed by isolated to low-end scattered
showers and storms forming inland around mid-afternoon. Expect
brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier
activity. Light southwesterly winds will continue through the
period. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early
next week, and there will be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity early next week. Overall, low impactful weather is
anticipated for small craft operators outside of any storms where
winds and seas will be locally higher. May have to also watch for
some isolated AM waterspouts over the weekend. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  75  92  74  89  73  88  73 /  20  10  50  60  80  70  90  50
Pensacola   91  79  91  77  88  75  86  76 /  30  10  50  60  80  80  90  60
Destin      90  79  90  79  87  76  86  77 /  40  20  50  60  80  80  80  60
Evergreen   94  74  92  71  89  71  86  71 /  30  20  60  60  90  80  90  50
Waynesboro  94  74  91  71  87  69  84  68 /  20  20  60  60  90  70  80  40
Camden      92  74  89  70  86  68  83  69 /  30  30  70  60  90  80  80  50
Crestview   93  74  93  72  90  71  88  71 /  30  20  60  60  90  80  90  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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