344
FXUS64 KMOB 101156
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
555 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Widespread rain shifts eastward across the area into the mid
afternoon hours, with dry conditions developing from west to east
from late afternoon into tonight. Easterly winds 10-15 knots,
stronger near the coast, switch around to a northwesterly
direction through this evening. VFR conditions initially drop to
MVFR then IFR ceilings through the afternoon, with IFR ceilings
anticipated to prevail tonight. Low level wind shear through 2kft
of 40-50 knots will be present through the early afternoon for
much of the area. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

An upper level trough over the Southern Plains will slowly move into
the Mississippi Valley today. A surface low, currently off the TX/LA
coast will move to the east, hugging the coastline. Currently, area
radars show a large area of precip over central Mississippi, moving
into the interior portions of the forecast area. A dry layer remains
above/at the surface, where dewpoint depressions were upwards of 15
degrees. This has led to mainly virga across our northern zones,
with a few isolated pockets of sleet reported earlier. Through the
next few hours, the vertical column will continue to saturate, with
the onset of measurable precipitation expected within the next few
hours. Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than previously
forecast, with obs showing temps in the near 40. As the lower levels
saturate, our temps may drop a couple of degrees, but will remain
above freezing. While it`s possible that we see a few more pockets
of sleet mix in with rain north of US-84, the likelihood is very
low, thus our shot at wintry precip has all but ended.

Rain will become more widespread through the day as the surface low
moves along our coastline. Meanwhile, a leading shortwave is
expected to round the base of the trough to our west, with the low
level jet moving over the area during the late morning through
afternoon hours. The combination of the increasing pressure gradient
and strong low level winds will lead to breezy conditions along the
coast and in our marine zones, with gusts up to 40 mph. Therefore, a
Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 am to 6 pm today. The
stronger onshore flow will also lead to high surf conditions, with
surf heights approaching 9 feet this afternoon. Winds will diminish
by sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes. Rain chances will also
come to an end late this evening, leaving cloudy conditions through
the overnight hours. This will limit cooling overnight, but CAA will
allow temps to drop into the upper 20s across our northern areas to
the lower 30s along the coast.

/73

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

An elongated positively tilted upper trof which stretches mostly
from the eastern states into the south central states weakens and
moves off into the western Atlantic through Saturday night. A
larger upper trof meanwhile evolves over the western and central
states then gradually transitions to be mostly over the interior
eastern states and northern/central Plains. A surface low is
expected to move from over the northern Plains on Saturday to off
across the Great Lakes region, and in the process brings a weak
trailing cold front through the forecast area late Sunday night
into early Monday morning. A secondary surface low appears to
progress across the northern Gulf with the frontal passage, and
rain chances for the forecast area Sunday night into Monday
morning will depend heavily on just how strong this surface low
turns out to be. Have continued with dry conditions for Saturday
through Sunday morning, with just a small chance for rain
returning to much of the coastal areas and extreme southeast
Mississippi by Sunday afternoon. For Sunday night, have for now gone
with slight chance pops well inland with chance pops further to
the coast, then for Monday morning will have slight chance to
chance pops mainly along and east of I-65. While lows Sunday night
drop to near freezing well inland, it appears that the
precipitation will come to an end over this portion before there
will be the potential for any wintry precipitation. Dry conditions
are expected for Monday afternoon through the remainder of the
period. Apparent temperature values drop to 17-20 well inland
Monday night and again Wednesday night, and it`s possible that a
Cold Weather Advisory may become necessary well inland for these
two nights. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect for Saturday,
with a moderate risk for Saturday night. A low risk is expected
for Sunday through Tuesday. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

A Gale Warning is in effect today, then a Small Craft Advisory
will be in effect for tonight into mid Saturday morning as winds
and seas subside. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      60  33  48  30  55  41  57  32 /  90  30   0   0  20  40  20   0
Pensacola   65  37  47  33  54  45  59  36 / 100  60   0   0  10  40  30   0
Destin      65  39  50  36  54  46  61  38 /  90  80   0   0  10  40  30   0
Evergreen   51  31  45  24  53  34  56  27 / 100  60   0   0  10  20  10   0
Waynesboro  45  30  45  24  54  35  54  26 /  90  10   0   0  10  20  10   0
Camden      44  29  42  22  51  32  52  24 / 100  40   0   0  10  20  10   0
Crestview   61  34  47  27  54  37  59  32 /  90  80   0   0  10  30  30   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for ALZ265-266.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>636-650-655-
     670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
     for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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