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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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960 FXUS64 KMOB 010923 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 423 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 An upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area through Monday. This will maintain a generally northerly flow pattern aloft. The combination of weak shortwaves rotating around this ridge, daytime heating and the seabreeze circulation will continue to result in scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms. A weak frontal boundary will sink toward the coast this afternoon resulting in the highest rain chances near the coast. Drier conditions are expected across inland areas today. A heat advisory remains in effect today for heat index values around 110. The frontal boundary lifts back north on Tuesday returning higher rain chances to inland areas. Highs on Tuesday will range from the low 90s east of I-65 to mid and upper 90s west of I-65. Another heat advisory may be required for western areas on Tuesday. /13 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Sunday) Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The overall weather pattern remains rather persistent through the entire extended term period. Looking aloft, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Tennessee River Valley at the start of the period will gradually shift east through the week, reaching the western Atlantic by Sunday. At the surface, with the lack of any notable surface features entering or affecting our area, it is safe to assume that the typical summertime land/seabreeze circulation will likely be the driving force each day. This will help to initiate isolated to scattered showers and storms each morning along our coastal counties and our local marine zones. As the seabreeze marches inland during the afternoon, scattered pulse-type thunderstorms can be expected each day (PoPs generally around 30 to 50 percent). As is the case with this typical summertime convection, although severe storms are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to develop. Otherwise, it will be hot thanks to the close proximity of the ridge. Highs will generally be in the low 90s along the coast and the mid 90s inland (localized interior areas could even reach the upper 90s). With dew points likely to remain in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast to rise into the 105 to 112 degree range each day prior to the onset of thunderstorms. Therefore, we will likely have multiple days of heat advisories across much of the area. Lows will not provide much relief, further exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local area... temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to upper 70s, with low 80s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place for Wednesday and the 4th of July holiday, however, as the previous shift mentioned, the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This will likely be a result of long period swell reaching our local beaches in association with Beryl as it enters the Bay of Campeche by the weekend. We will monitor this potential, as well as possible increases in surf and wave run-up issues, over the coming days. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 97 77 93 77 92 76 93 76 / 30 20 60 30 50 10 40 0 Pensacola 96 79 89 79 90 78 92 79 / 50 30 60 30 50 10 40 10 Destin 93 80 89 80 90 80 91 81 / 60 40 70 20 50 20 30 10 Evergreen 97 74 92 75 94 74 95 75 / 20 10 60 20 60 10 50 10 Waynesboro 96 71 97 75 94 74 96 75 / 10 0 40 10 60 10 30 0 Camden 95 72 92 75 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 50 10 50 10 40 10 Crestview 97 76 92 75 94 74 96 75 / 50 30 60 20 60 10 50 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052>060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob