322
FXUS64 KMOB 092008
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
308 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A positively tilted upper trof located over the south central
states into northern Mexico takes on a meridional orientation
while progressing across the southeastern states on Monday, and
then continues off into the western Atlantic Monday night. A
surface low is currently located near the mouth of the
Mississippi River, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary
extending across the near shore coastal waters. The surface low is
expected to advance across the marine area through the early
evening hours and move into the west central Florida panhandle by
around midnight. The surface low then continues well east of the
area overnight into Monday, and with the progression of the upper
trof, dry deep layer air is drawn into the forecast area in the
process. The pattern looks to favor the best pops mainly for
portions of south central Alabama for the rest of this afternoon,
tapering to slight chance pops for much of south central Alabama
and southeast Mississippi. For tonight, have gone with likely
pops well inland tapering to chance pops near the coast. Rain
chances end from west to east Monday morning as the upper trof
moves across the area with drier air flowing into the area. May
see a strong storm or two develop this afternoon, but otherwise am
not anticipating severe storm development. Lows tonight range
from the mid/upper 40s well inland to the lower 50s closer to the
coast. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60s over the eastern
half of the area with upper 60s/near 70 over the western half.
Lows Monday night range from around 40 inland to the mid/upper 40s
at the coast. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect tonight
and Monday, then a moderate risk follows for Monday night. /29

&&

.SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Semi-zonal flow will prevail over the region Tuesday into the
Wednesday as the next southern stream shortwave moves inland from
the Pacific. This results in dry weather and fairly seasonable
temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the mid
40s to lower 50s.

The aforementioned shortwave will quickly move into our local
area on Thursday. Moisture return will be limited until
immediately ahead of the shortwave. However, guidance is rather
consistent on showing just enough moisture and instability to
support isolated to scattered showers and storms. No severe
weather is expected at this time. This system will quickly move
east of the area by Thursday evening.

We then turn our attention to the next storm system that will
likely be much more significant. A high amplitude trough will
develop over the central United States late Friday into early
Saturday. An anonymously deep surface cyclone (likely in the 970
mb range) is expected to form over the central Plains and quickly
move northeast into Great Lakes. Meanwhile, long range guidance is
in pretty good agreement for this far out of a significant
shortwave moving around the base of the trough and pivoting into
the southeastern states on Saturday. Given the highly amplified
nature of this system, wind fields are forecast to be strong and
supportive of severe weather. It also appears that there will at
least be moderate levels of instability to work with. These large
scale factors support the concern of strong to severe storms
across the local area on Saturday. However, the specific details
and ultimate extent of the threat is to be determined. We will
have to wait until we are much closer in time to see how the
mesoscale details evolve. Stay tuned through the week as we
gradually learn more about next weekend`s severe threat.

Temperatures will warm to above normal levels by Friday and
persist into Saturday. Cooler and drier weather is expected by
Sunday in the wake of this storm system. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Light to moderate northerly winds become a strong northwesterly flow
tonight, then the offshore flow diminishes Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. A Small Craft Advisory comes in effect for the
entire marine area late this evening into early Monday morning, then
ends over the bay and near shore waters in the afternoon, followed
by the 20-60 nm portion ending early Monday evening. Winds become
light westerly on Tuesday, then light onshore flow develops on
Wednesday. The onshore flow becomes strong Friday into Friday night
as a cold front approaches from the west. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ633.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday for GMZ634>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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