469
FXUS64 KMOB 011724
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Light northerly
winds this afternoon become light and variable overnight and
northeasterly Wednesday morning. /14



&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Dry weather prevails across the forecast area today through
Wednesday. An upper level shortwave embedded within the
subtropical jet continues to move away from the area with any
remaining broken to overcast skies quickly eroding from west to
east early this morning as dry air aloft works its way into the
region. In the shortwaves wake, transient upper ridging moves
across the area keeping the region under mostly sunny skies and
afternoon temperatures above average. Expect highs to top out in
the upper 80`s to near 90 today, with some lower 90`s possible for
Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows should cool off decently,
particularly over the interior as calm winds and mostly clear
skies during the overnight hours promote idealized radiational
cooling. Lows tonight fall into the lower to middle 60`s inland
and middle to upper 60`s nearer the coast. Along the immediate
coast and beaches temperatures will only fall to the lower 70`s. A
low risk of rip currents remains in place through Wednesday.
MM/25

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 509 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Upper level ridging will continue to build across the southeastern
U.S. Wednesday night into Thursday. A surface ridge of high
pressure will also continue to build along the Eastern Seaboard
and into the southeastern states during this time frame. Southerly
to southwesterly mid to upper level flow along the western
periphery of the ridge axis and also in advance of an upper level
trough forming to our west will aid in bringing a plume of tropical
moisture north-northeastward across the southwestern and central
Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS model has been the
most aggressive with advecting this plume of moisture into our
forecast area during the day Thursday, while other models tend to
keep the deeper moisture relegated further to the south over the
Gulf during this time given a more pronounced westward and
southwestward extent of the aforementioned ridge axis in those
solutions. There probably will at least be some increase in deeper
moisture along southern portions of our CWA to support a chance
of showers and a few thunderstorms during the day Thursday. POPs
between 30-40% have generally been indicated over these southern
zones.

Upper ridging should weaken and shift further to the east Thursday
night into Friday as the mid to upper level trough axis progresses
eastward across central Texas. There are also indications that a
broad area of low pressure will begin to take shape over the far
southern Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula by Friday afternoon. Enhanced
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough over central Texas
should help bring increased deep layer moisture from the Gulf into
our forecast area Thursday night and into the day Friday. Weak
diffluence aloft over our region in combination with a weak surface
boundary also stretching over our area will bring increased rain
chances Thursday night and especially during the day Friday. Rain
chances trend higher by Friday afternoon with POPs increasing to
40-50% over our northern CWA and as high as 60-70% along the
coast. We may need to monitor for locally heavy rainfall given
precipitable water values around or a little above 2 inches across
the region.

There is still a lot of uncertainty with the overall forecast
evolution this weekend into the early part of next week. We will
be watching the broad area of low pressure that should continue to
take shape over the southern Gulf on Saturday. Operational model
solutions and ensemble guidance seem to be in fairly clustered
agreement with keeping this low pressure system confined to
central portions of the Gulf going into the day Sunday. A frontal
boundary may become draped along coastal portions of our forecast
area this weekend as surface ridging becomes reinforced to our
northeast. Precipitable water values look to remain most enhanced
along coastal portions of the forecast area and the adjacent Gulf
waters along and to the south of this boundary through the
weekend, so rain chances will be best along southern portions of
our region Saturday and Sunday. The low pressure system may
continue to strengthen over the vicinity of the central Gulf going
into Monday, but an upper trough crossing from the Great Lakes to
the Ohio Valley should send a reinforcing cold front southward
toward our forecast area by Monday. Ensemble guidance keeps low
pressure and potential tropical development confined to our south
over the central or eastern Gulf with this pattern, but will need
to keep a close watch on the overall pattern evolution the next
few days. Highs generally range in the 80s each day with lows
mostly in the 60s each night, except slightly warmer in the lower
70s along the immediate coast and beaches. /21



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  90  68  87  70  84  69  86 /   0   0   0  30  40  60  20  30
Pensacola   71  89  72  84  73  83  72  85 /   0   0   0  40  40  70  30  30
Destin      71  88  73  86  74  84  72  85 /   0   0   0  40  40  60  30  30
Evergreen   64  91  64  87  68  85  67  87 /   0   0   0  20  30  50  10  20
Waynesboro  63  88  63  88  67  84  67  86 /   0   0   0  10  20  40  10  20
Camden      63  88  63  87  67  82  65  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  40  10  10
Crestview   64  91  65  87  69  84  68  85 /   0   0   0  40  30  60  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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