241
FXUS64 KMOB 021740
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

  - Strong flow will likely create hazardous conditions for small
    craft over the open Gulf waters through mid afternoon today.

  - A high rip current risk remains in effect for the beaches of
    Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today.

  - Heavy rainfall potential sets up end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Cold air advection processes and post frontal clouds contribute to a
chilly day today. May be some patchy drizzle here and there but
measurable precipitation is not expected. Aloft, a west southwest
flow is shown in the 02.12Z upper air data with drier deep layer
air spreading eastward over the deep south. In the lower levels
and at the surface, a shallow post frontal, cold season subsidence
inversion appears to be in place tonight which would support
overnight clouds causing havoc with mins. Taking a look at
satellite imagery, with low level overcast hanging back well west,
back into Arkansas and Louisiana lends credence to make an upward
adjustment to tonight`s lows ranging 29 to 34 north of I-10 and
upper 30s/lower 40s closer to the coast. Wednesday remains dry and
cool as high pressure eases eastward over the deep south.

The upper level pattern once again becomes active in short order as
we move into the close of the week. A positively tilted upper trof
diving into the 4-Corners of the Desert Southwest becomes
increasingly elongated and splits through Thursday as the northern
portion continues across the northeast states. The remainder of the
upper trof will be located roughly over the central Plains to across
the southwest states on Thursday and into Friday. Ahead of this
feature, a stream of enhanced environmental moisture sets up from
the southeast US, all the way back to southwest of the Baja.
The pattern resembles an upper level atmospheric river where a
series of mid-level impulses will be moving across. At the
surface, a series of frontal low pressure systems begin to form
off the Texas coast by Thursday AM with PoPs increasing from west
to east as early as Wednesday night as larger scale lift
increases/expands. We could very well see a pattern similar to
the one Monday night where a wave of frontal low pressure skirts
east northeast near the coast or more over the marine area Friday.
Will need to closely monitor the trajectory of the surface low
and attendant warm front/warm sector as the potential would exist
for more surface based convection south of this feature. Too
early to assess storm risk, mode and placement at this time.
Likely to categorical pops though remain unchanged for both
Thursday and Friday. There is a signal for modest probabilities in
the longer range guidance for the potential of heavy rain the end
of the week too. Considering this, a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall is outlooked for the central Gulf coast Thursday and
Friday. Forecasters maintain a chance to perhaps likely PoPs into
the day Saturday before rain chances diminish the remainder of
the period.

Daytime highs remain cool the remainder of the week and may need
lower adjustments Thursday and Friday considering clouds and
overrunning rainfall. Nights also remain cool.

A high risk of rip currents remains today, transitioning to a
moderate risk for Tuesday night. A low risk follows for Wednesday
and Thursday then a moderate risk is expected for Friday. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

It`s a low confidence ceiling forecast through early tomorrow
morning. Currently, an expansive low stratus deck prevails over the
region. IFR ceilings have been gradually lifting to MVFR levels and
will continue to do so through the afternoon. The big question is
whether the low ceilings will persist through tonight or begin to
scatter out. Given the abundant moisture trapped below a frontal
inversion, this forecast will lean toward the solution of persistent
MVFR ceilings through the night. Clouds are expected to clear out by
15-18z Wednesday at the latest. Gusty northwest winds today will
become lighter out of the northeast by Wednesday morning. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A moderate offshore flow this evening begins to subside late in the
night. Light north to northeast winds Wednesday become easterly
Thursday and begin to gradually increase through the course of the
day. A wave of frontal low pressure is progged to move east
northeast across area waters Friday morning. A return to building
seas the end of the week. Rains also increase late in the week with
perhaps embedded storms. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      32  58  42  54 /   0   0  30  80
Pensacola   37  58  46  56 /   0   0  20  70
Destin      40  60  47  59 /   0   0  10  70
Evergreen   30  58  36  55 /   0   0  10  70
Waynesboro  27  57  35  49 /   0   0  30  80
Camden      28  53  34  51 /   0   0  10  60
Crestview   32  59  38  56 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$