149
FXUS64 KMOB 101905
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
105 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
   across the entire area with the ongoing drought, very dry
   weather, and forecast strong winds. A Red Flag Warning is in
   effect Monday afternoon for the entirety of the area.

 - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our local marine zones
   through tonight with the potential for occasional gusts to
   gale force over the open Gulf waters.

 - The first freeze of the season is expected for all of the
   forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall
   into the middle 20`s to lower 30`s. Wind Chills will be in the
   low to mid 20s areawide. A Freeze Warning is in effect for the
   entire local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The freezer door was apparently left open today as dry arctic air
continues to filter into the area. Despite ample sunshine this
afternoon, stiff northerly winds have kept temperatures in the
40s to barely reaching 50 here along the coast. With the deep
upper trough starting to slowly lift out to the northwest, Surface
high pressure will begin to move over the area in response. Winds
will begin to relax this evening leading to maximized radiational
cooling across the area. Temperatures will plummet into the mid
to upper 20s for most of the area Monday night into Tuesday
morning. NBM probabilities for below freezing remain 90-100% all
the way to the immediate coast with only the one to two miles
closest to the coastline ranging around 40-50% of below freezing.
With that in mind, Record daily lows at Mobile (31 degrees) and
Pensacola (33 degrees) are likely to fall at this point and
possibly could be broken by several degrees, especially at KMOB.
NBM probabilities of less than 31 at MOB is 90 to 100% range and
near 90 to 100% for less than 33 degrees at PNS. Freeze Warnings
have be issued for the entire area beginning 6pm Monday night til
8am Tuesday morning. Along with the freezing cold temperatures,
there may be an area along the coastal counties where winds remain
slightly elevated. The overlap of upper 20s to near 30s temps and
light winds will result in wind chills in the low 20s and
possibly teens across interior portions of the Florida Panhandle
and coastal Alabama. A cold weather advisory has been issued for
these areas as well. Nonetheless, its going to be downright cold
Monday night into Tuesday morning and given the relatively abrupt
and early nature of this cold compared to normal, we will not be
acclimated and the cold will be even more dangerous to vulnerable
communities.

By the middle of the weak, we will steadily begin to warmup again
as the upper low lifts northeast into the northern Atlantic and
high pressure to our west flattens out. We will quickly rebound
even on Tuesday and Wednesday night as the temperature roller
coaster climbs the next hill. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid
50s with lows dropping to just above freezing. By Wednesday,
highs will be back in the 70s as a more westerly wind aloft and
gradual modification of the air continues. Luckily it will remain
dry with no significant systems moving through until the weekend
when our attention turns towards another potent upper trough
ejecting over the central US. Analog guidance and long range
machine learning guidance suggest this system may need to be
monitored closely heading into the weekend for some strong to
severe storm potential. However, there still remains enough timing
and evolutions differences amongst the ensemble suite to keep
confidence low at this time. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning. Gusty
northwesterly winds at 10-20 knots become calm or light and
variable over interior areas this evening, while near the coast
the flow diminishes to near 5 knots overnight. A northeasterly
flow around 5 knots develops Tuesday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Strong northwesterly flow will persist through tonight and A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all local marine
zones. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible over the open
Gulf waters through this evening and overnight, however,
confidence and frequency of gale conditions was too low to warrant
a Gale warning. Winds will then relax on Tuesday and become a
light onshore flow by Wednesday. BB-8

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

In the wake of a strong cold front, dangerous burning conditions
are expected across the local area on Monday. Along with our
longstanding drought, afternoon relative humidity values are
expected to drop into the low to mid 20s, along with winds of
around 15 to 20 mph, with gusts nearing 30 mph. This has resulted
in a Red Flag Warning to be issued for the entire area. Given the
similar conditions areawide we felt that an expansion of the
warning to encompass all of Alabama as well as southeastern
mississippi and the Florida Panhandle was necessary. Burning is
not advised this afternoon. Winds will subside on Tuesday,
however, continued dry conditions (minimum RH values dropping into
the 15-20% range for much of the area) will remain across the
area leading to increased fire danger. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      28  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   32  56  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      36  58  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   25  58  33  73 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  25  56  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      24  55  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   24  56  32  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     Freeze Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Tuesday
     for ALZ263>266.

FL...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Freeze Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     FLZ201>206.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Tuesday
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     Freeze Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$