000
FXUS64 KMOB 271830
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1230 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft across portions of the marine area through Friday
   morning, with another possible period from Friday night into
   Saturday morning.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches Saturday, then a high risk is anticipated for
   Saturday night and Sunday.

 - Low relative humidity values on Thursday and Friday along with
   the potential for breezy winds could result in an elevated fire
   danger and will be monitored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Now through Thursday....

KEY MESSAGES...

 - A series of passing systems will create moderate to strong winds
over area waters Saturday into the coming week.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area
beaches Saturday, then a high risk is anticipated for Saturday night
and Sunday.

 - Low relative humidity values today and Friday along with the
potential for breezy winds could result in an elevated fire danger
and will be monitored.

A deep upper trough over the eastern Conus moves off, with zonal
upper flow setting up over the Southeast into the weekend. Upper
level shortwave energy ahead of a deep upper trough digs south over
the western Conus the rest of the work week. Surface high pressure
passes over the Mississippi River, moving to the East Coast by late
Saturday, restoring onshore flow to the forecast area and nearby
Friday night into Saturday. The current dry airmass over the
forecast area (precipitable h20 values around 0.33") begins to
moisten Saturday, rising to around 1.3" Sunday. The zonal upper flow
over the Southeast helps to direct the stronger upper trough well
north of the northern Gulf coast as it moves east from the western
Conus. Weaker impulses pass over the region over region Sunday, with
a cold front moving over the forecast area late Sunday into Sunday
night. This front stalls over the northern Gulf by Monday. More
shortwave energy moves over the northern Gulf coast Monday into
Tuesday, guidance is advertising a surface low developing on the
stalled surface front over the northwestern Gulf Monday, then moving
northeast over/near the forecast area late Monday/Monday night
(ultimate path and timing of passage vary in the guidance).
Isentropic upglide showers develop ahead of the developing surface
low, with enough instability just north of the boundary and points
south for rumbles to mix in. With the inconsistency in the guidance,
have less confidence on where the rumbles occur or any
types/placement of rowdy storms. Inconsistency in model solutions
continue through the end of the forecast, with some models
advertising a passing shortwave bringing rain back to the forecast
area for Thursday. Have low confidence in this.

Taking a step back and looking at Sunday`s weather, instability is
modest and confined to over the coast and south. Guidance is
advertising some upper divergence with the passing shortwave energy,
along with Bulk Wind Shear of 40-50kts coincident with the
instability, mainly near the coast. Enough directional wind shear
for spinners will be confined to areas along and south of the front.
Where is hard to pin down at this time, with guidance indicating
some northward movement of the stalled boundary as a warm front, but
quick passage of the passing energy, plus ultimate positioning of
the stalling cold front, northward movement of the warm front will
be limited and confined to areas south of I-10. Will need to keep an
eye on this.

High temperatures are going to see a roller coaster through the
forecast, with mid 50s to around 60 today rising to around 60
northwestern areas to low 70s southeast of I-65 Sunday. The same
northwest to southeast gradient continues through Tuesday, with mid
50s northwest to upper 60s southeast of I-65 expected Monday and
Tuesday. By Thursday, high temperatures have climbed back into the
low to upper 60s over the forecast area. Low temperatures see the
same roller coast, with around 30 to mid 30s tonight rising to the
mid 40s northeast to low 50s over the southwestern third of the
forecast area Saturday night. Sunday`s system shifts the
temperatures over the forecast area to a northwest to southeast
banding, with around 40 northwestern-most portions of the forecast
area to the upper 50s well south of I-65. 30s return to most of the
forecast area Tuesday night.

Offshore flow shifts to onshore this weekend, with the Rip Risk
rising to Moderate to High Saturday into the coming week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.
Northwesterly to northerly winds will be gusty through the
afternoon, with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Gusts will subside
around sunset. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Moderate to strong northerly winds diminish somewhat on
Thursday, but restrengthen Thursday night, mainly over the open Gulf
waters. Moderate to at times strong winds shift to easterly Saturday,
then southeast to south Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front
crossing area waters late Sunday into Sunday night shifts flow to
offshore for a short period. A system passes over area waters late
Monday into Monday night, bringing moderate to strong variable
direction winds before moderate to strong offshore flow returns for
Tuesday into mid week after the system passes.
/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% for much of the
area today and Friday over most of the area. At this time, the
Significant Fire Potential rating is low or less for both days. The
20 ft wind speeds will be less than 15/16 mph for the most part, but
could reach these values over the coastal counties and will need to
monitor. Will mention the potential for elevated fire danger due to
low relative humidity and potentially breezy winds.
/29/16

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      60  35  56  39 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   61  40  57  44 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      62  40  58  43 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   59  30  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  57  30  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      55  28  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   61  31  57  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$