621
FXUS64 KMOB 152001
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
301 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Now through Tuesday...

For the current forecast, the biggest item to deal with is a system
moving west over the northern Gulf, passing south of the forecast
area Wednesday. Heat Indices bumping Heat Advisory levels before and
after the passing system are the second item.

Looking at the bigger picture, the aforementioned system moves west
on the south side of upper level high pressure situated over the
Southeast. A surface low associated with this system passes south of
the forecast area Wednesday, with the forecast area coming under
stronger southerly flow late Wednesday into Friday. As the system
moves over very warm Gulf waters (water temps in the upper 80s over
the northern Gulf), it is expected to become a bit better organized.
How much more organized depends on how far south of the disruptive
Gulf coast it travels. As of the 1 PM CDT Tuesday issuance from the
NHC, a 40% chance of this system becoming a tropical system is being
advertised. Guidance is advertising the system become better
organized as it begins to move west of the upper ridge (and inland
over southern Louisiana). Deep layer flow increases over the
northern Gulf coast, pumping Gulf moisture inland, with precipitable
h20 values rising above 2.4" over the forecast area and nearby.
MLCapes in the 2000-2500J/kg Wednesday drop into the 1000-1500J/kg
range Thursday and Friday, with an uptick in the coming weekend.
With the soupy airmass over the forecast area the end of the week,
the expected thunderstorms are expected to be efficient rainers, and
with training cells possible, especially over our southern-most tier
of counties, water issues may be an issue. WPC has placed our
southern tier of counties west of the Florida state line in a slight
risk of excessive rain for Friday. Am holding off on any Flood Watch
at this time, with the ultimate path of the system this far out a
bit hard to pin down.

After this system moves off, upper level high pressure over the
Southeast shifts west a bit, but remains in control over the region.
A surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf, keeping moisture
levels high. Daily, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms over
land areas of the forecast area are expected, overnight into early
morning over our Gulf waters.

Temperatures start well above seasonal averages, take a dip as rain
chances increase the end of the week, then bounce back over the
weekend into the coming week, especially high temperatures. High
temperatures in the low to mid 90s Wednesday drop into the upper 80s
to around 90 for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures quickly
rebound back into the low to mid 90s by Sunday lasting into the
coming week. Heat indices Wednesday bump Heat Advisory levels
(108+), with most of the forecast area topping out in the 102-107
degree range. The drop in temperatures with the passing system will
drop Heat Indices to around 100 for Thursday and Friday. Heat
Indices then rebound back into the 102-107 degree range for Sunday
into the coming week. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s north
of I-10, mid 70s to near 80 south expected through the forecast.

An increasing tidal cycle along with greater swell on the lee side
of the passing surface low will bring a High Risk of rip currents
Thursday and Friday
/16
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible during the afternoon, however
the chances are not high enough to include in the TAF. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A light variable flow will become a moderate onshore by Thursday on
the lee side of a westward moving surface low. Winds will east to a
light to at times moderate this weekend into the coming week as a
surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  95  74  88  75  88  75  90 /  10  70  50 100  50  90  20  80
Pensacola   78  92  77  88  78  89  79  91 /  30  80  60  90  50  90  20  60
Destin      79  91  80  89  80  87  81  92 /  50  80  60  90  50  80  10  50
Evergreen   74  95  73  91  74  90  73  93 /  20  60  30  80  20  80  10  50
Waynesboro  74  97  73  92  73  88  73  93 /  10  30  30  80  20  90  10  60
Camden      75  95  74  91  73  89  73  91 /  10  40  20  70  10  80  10  50
Crestview   74  93  73  90  75  91  74  94 /  30  90  40  90  30  90  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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