931
FXUS64 KMOB 040536
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Rounds of heavy rainfall may result in areas of significant flash
  flooding and potential river flooding this weekend, especially
  near the coast.

 - HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents for coastal Alabama and
   northwest Florida beaches through at least Monday.

 - Minor coastal flooding is expected during the early morning
   high tide cycle on Sunday with water levels up to 2 feet above
   normally dry ground.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The high pressure over the Atlantic and moisture from long gone
Hurricane Polo continues to advect in tropical moisture. PWATs
have climbed to around 2.4-2.5 inches which is quite anomalous
being well above the 90th percentile (~1.95 inches) and is even
close to the daily max of 2.54 inches based on sounding
climatology. With PWATs this high, the atmospheric column is close
to fully saturated. The significant deep layer moisture and
freezing levels of 15,000+ft will support efficient warm rain
processes with rainfall rates topping out at 2-3 inches/hour.

Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected into Monday before
the deep moisture departs. CAMs continue to pinpoint areas along
the coast for the highest rainfall amounts. Ensemble 6-hour LPMMs
show multiple periods of some bulls-eyes of around 4-6 inches
along the coast this evening and especially Sunday morning into
the early evening. Right now we are forecasting precipitation
totals of 4- 6 inches through Monday and some of our far northern
reaches could only receive 2-3 inches. Some areas, especially
along the coast generally along and south of I-10 could receive up
to 10-15 inches where storms train over the same area. These
areas would have life-threatening flash flooding and some rivers
are already expected to go into flood stage over the few days. We
opted to issue a Flood Watch for coastal counties given the high
totals coming in from the high-res guidance. No widespread severe
weather is expected with this event, but some gusty winds and
lightning are possible with any storms. Some guidance is pointing
towards a weak area of low pressure forming near the coast on
Sunday. This feature would enhance rainfall and increase low-level
shear with curved hodographs which introduces an isolated
tornado/waterspout potential. The good news is that while it is
very moist and rainy, temperatures are at or below normal through
the weekend as the rainfall and cloud coverage keeps highs mostly
in the low 80s.

The plume of deep tropical moisture (2+ inch PWATs) lasts into the
beginning of next week keeping the increased rain chances into at
least Monday. A cold front then sweeps through the area and
decreases rain chances around Tuesday and into late next week. It
will definitely feel like fall out there as temperatures decrease
and the drier air will be very welcomed after this wet period. The
front does come with increased winds bringing dangerous
marine/beach conditions with marine winds near advisory levels,
higher wave heights, and an increased rip current risk again.

...COASTAL FLOODING...

Minor coastal flooding continues to be a concern Sunday morning.
Local tide gauges showed very close or exceeded thresholds this
morning and a similar setup looks to be true for Sunday morning
during the pre-dawn hours when the high tide combines with
persistent onshore flow. Most areas approach or equal our 2.0 feet
MHHW threshold (2 feet above normally dry ground) so we opted to
issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for all coastal areas from midnight
to 8AM Sunday. Expect some minor inundation for typical trouble
spots like Dauphin Island and Fort Pickens and splashover on the
causeway.

...BEACH FORECAST...

Hazardous beach conditions continue with all area beaches flying
red flags again today. The rip current risk continues to be HIGH
for all beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida
Panhandle. The HIGH risk continues to Monday then drops to a
MODERATE Monday night through Tuesday before increasing again
around Wednesday to HIGH. Increased surf up to 3-4 feet continues into
the beginning of next week and by mid week may further increase
towards High Surf Advisory criteria.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A low pressure system and slow moving front over the area will
bring periods of showers and thunderstorms and prevailing IFR
conditions to the terminals for much of the forecast period.
Ceilings are currently ranging between 1000 and 2000 feet, but
will build down to 500 to 1000 feet by 12z at all of the
terminals. The periods of rain and high humidity will keep
prevailing MVFR visibiltiies of 3 to 5 miles in place at all of
the terminals, and PROB30 wording from 10z through around 21 to
22z reflects the thunderstorm risk with gusty winds of 25 knots
and IFR visibilties of 1 to 2 miles due to heavy rain expected at
times. PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026
Moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow continues into
Sunday. Winds relax by Monday morning and then become strong and
turn northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front on Tuesday.
Advisory level conditions are possible Tuesday through Thursday as
we get strong easterly winds.Seas increase to 3-5 feet late week
into early this weekend with another bump to 5-8 feet possible in
the middle of next week with the increasing winds. SS/97

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  69  83  68 /  90  70  40  10
Pensacola   81  71  82  70 / 100  90  50  30
Destin      82  72  83  71 / 100  80  60  40
Evergreen   77  66  83  64 / 100  80  40  10
Waynesboro  77  67  82  64 /  80  40  40  10
Camden      77  67  82  64 /  90  70  40  10
Crestview   77  67  82  66 / 100  90  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through this evening for ALZ261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for
     ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$