Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
718 FXUS64 KMOB 181141 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 641 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 A large high pressure area extending from the central and southern plains east of the Mississippi River will persist into late Monday night, with a ridge expected to expand eastward to the mid Atlantic states. This upper high and ridge will then retreat westward on Tuesday through midweek as Hurricane Erin moves northward over the western Atlantic. We are expecting PWATs to remain steady around 1.5" through midweek, with rain chances continuing to trend to mainly isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A few of the stronger storms will have the potential to produce gusty surface winds and/or small hail. PWATs are expected to increase slightly to around 2" through the latter half of next week as a cold front stalls north of our region, so we could see a return to scattered to occasional numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With the drier air in place and low convective coverage, highs through Thursday will reach the low to mid 90s (a few interior locations could reach the upper 90s). Heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory criteria as the drier air should allow our afternoon dew points to mix down into the upper 60s to low 70. With moisture returning the latter half of the week, temperatures will trend slightly lower with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows through the period will generally remain in the low to mid 70s. A Low Risk of rip currents remain in place through the period. /22 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 VFR conditions will through the day today. Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm will likely develop during the mid afternoon mainly west of I-65. Localized IFR to MVFR conditions will be present with the strongest storms. VFR conditions will return overnight as storms subside before midnight. Winds will be light out of the south. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 No significant impacts are expected for mariners other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. A diurnal flow pattern will continue through the middle of the week, with an offshore flow developing late each night and becoming onshore in the afternoon. A light southwesterly flow will follow to finish out the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 74 94 74 95 74 93 74 / 40 10 30 0 30 10 40 20 Pensacola 93 77 93 76 94 77 91 77 / 30 10 30 10 30 20 40 30 Destin 92 77 92 78 92 78 91 78 / 20 10 30 10 30 20 40 30 Evergreen 96 72 97 72 96 73 95 72 / 20 10 20 0 20 10 30 20 Waynesboro 95 73 96 72 96 72 94 72 / 30 10 20 0 20 20 40 30 Camden 95 73 96 73 94 73 94 73 / 20 10 10 0 20 10 30 20 Crestview 95 72 94 73 95 73 94 73 / 20 10 30 0 30 10 40 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob