788
FXUS64 KMOB 182002
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
302 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Near Term (Now through Saturday night)
Through Saturday night, a large positively tilted upper trof
stretching from the northern Plains to the 4 Corners region advances
slowly eastward then splits, with the northern portion moving off
across eastern Canada while the remainder moves into the southern
and central Plains. An upper ridge over the southeastern states (and
stretching up along the mid Atlantic Coast) meanwhile slowly begins
to move off into the western Atlantic, while a surface ridge remains
in place over the southeastern states and promotes a light
southeasterly flow. Deep layer moisture looks to remain too limited
to support precipitation and have continued with a dry forecast
through Saturday night. Patchy to areas of fog is favored to develop
overnight, and may develop Saturday night as well. There is a low
risk of rip currents tonight and a moderate risk of rip currents for
Saturday. A High Risk of rip currents begins Saturday night and
through Monday night. /29

Extended (Sunday through Friday)
Upper level high pressure centered off the Florida Atlantic coast
with a ridge stretching north over the East Coast will hang tough
into Monday, then begin to tilt anticyclonically as a series of
shortwave troughs move over the Central/Southern Plains. By
Thursday, the upper pattern has transformed into zonal upper flow
over the Southeast, with a series of shortwave troughs passing over
the Southeast. A surface cold front moves to areas northwest of the
forecast area as a closes upper system exits a mean upper trough
over the Plains Sunday into Monday. This front becomes the focus for
rainfall in the coming week. Another shortwave passing Tuesday
shifts the surface front a bit further southeast, closer to the
forecast area. Will need to monitor where this boundary moves in the
coming week, with isentropic upglide heavy rain a possibility with
the Tuesday system and another passing Wednesday night into
Thursday. Guidance is painting precipitable h20 levels rising into
the 1.5"-1.6" range in areas near or over the forecast area
(generally west of I-65), and MLCapes rising to around 1000j/kg,
enough for localized heavy rain, maybe more extensive if the surface
front is re-enforced.

Temperatures remain at or above seasonal norms Sunday for the coming
week. High temperatures range from the upper 70s near the coast to
low to mid 80s well inland are expected for the period, with some
shifting of where the lower temperatures end up. Low temperatures in
the low to mid 60s expected for most of the period.

A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected Sunday into midweek with
onshore flow continuing to bring swell to area beaches. A wide
tidal range this weekend will slowly decrease in the coming week,
with the Rip Current Risk easing to a Moderate by the end of the
week.
/16
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions prevail over the area this afternoon except for
occasional MVFR ceilings near the coast. Patchy MVFR conditions
with fog are expected to develop this evening, with the potential
for late night dense fog development mostly over portions of
south central Alabama and the interior western Florida panhandle.
Any fog that develops will dissipate during early to mid Saturday
morning leaving VFR conditions. South to southeast winds 10-15
knots today diminish to a calm or light southeasterly flow this
evening, then a southeasterly flow at 10-15 knots develops
Saturday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A light to moderate southeasterly flow pattern will persist through
the middle of next week. It`s possible that the southeasterly flow
may increase sufficiently to warrant Small Craft Exercise Caution
headlines mainly over the 20-60 nm portion of the Alabama coastal
waters Sunday morning. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  82  64  82  66  82  66  82 /   0   0   0   0  10  30  30  60
Pensacola   66  78  66  78  67  79  68  80 /   0   0   0   0   0  20  10  40
Destin      66  78  67  78  68  79  69  80 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  30
Evergreen   57  87  59  85  58  85  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  30  30  60
Waynesboro  63  87  61  85  63  83  64  82 /   0   0   0   0  10  70  50  80
Camden      58  86  60  83  60  83  63  79 /   0   0   0   0   0  40  40  70
Crestview   57  85  58  84  58  84  62  84 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through late Tuesday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through late Tuesday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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