561
FXUS64 KMOB 190940
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
440 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

An upper trof along the eastern seaboard today will move off into
the western Atlantic tonight and Friday while upper ridging begins
to build into our area from the west. A weak and diffuse surface
trof just offshore or over the immediate coastal areas may allow for
a VERY isolated shower today, but not nearly enough of a signal for
this to include any PoP today. This surface boundary washes out
tonight and Friday, and with the ridging building aloft we don`t
expect any PoP tonight or Friday either. Deep layer dry air will
continue over the region through the near term. With the ridging
aloft and dry airmass, we expect daytime high temperatures to heat
up into the upper 80s and lower 90s both today and Friday (which is
about 4 to 7 degrees above normal high temps). Lows tonight will
range from the mid and upper 60s over most inland areas to the
low to mid 70s at the coast. DS/12

&&

.SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper-level ridging over the south central US is expected to
shift eastward throughout the extended period. This will allow for
northeasterly flow aloft at the start of the period to become
more light and variable by Sunday and into Monday as the ridge
moves overhead. At the surface, an expansive high pressure over
the Appalachians will also remain in control through Monday.
Subsidence from the deep-layer ridging in place, along with lower
moisture values (PWAT values around 1.1 to 1.5 inches) should
keep rain out of the forecast through, at least, Monday. Highs
will generally range from the upper 80s along the coast to the low
to mid 90s inland. Lows will be in the upper 60s inland to the
low to mid 70s along the coast.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, troughing should dig into the central US
and move into the Great Lakes region, helping to weaken the ridge.
There are, however, some model discrepancies with the overall upper-
level pattern by this time. One possible scenario (suggested by the
ECMWF and ICON) shows a decently strong cut-off low breaking away
from the main trough on Tuesday over the central US and pushing
southward towards the Desert Southwest. This solution results in a
weaker trough moving across the Great Lakes, leading to the ridge
lingering overhead longer. The other scenario shows a weaker cutoff
low (GFS solution) or does not even show one forming at all (CMC
solution). This would lead to a stronger trough overall, helping to
weaken and shove the ridge further to the east, leading to a more
southwesterly flow pattern aloft. Ultimately, as we look past the
scope of this extended term forecast, these features and solutions
will likely play a huge role on the eventual trajectory of a low
pressure system that will potentially develop over the southern Gulf
of Mexico midweek. We will continue to monitor these trends closely
over the coming days. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A light, mostly offshore flow is expected today through Friday
night, with a more east to southeasterly flow expected to develop
on Saturday and continue into late Monday. Little change in seas
through the period. No expected hazards to small craft through the
weekend and into the early part of next week, but winds and seas
will likely be increasing by midweek and especially by late week,
possibly posing a hazard to small craft by mid to late week as low
pressure develops over the Gulf. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  70  91  70  92  70  91  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   90  73  90  73  90  73  89  73 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      89  74  90  75  89  74  88  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   90  68  91  68  93  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  90  67  91  68  93  69  91  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      91  67  92  67  93  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   92  68  92  67  93  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob