Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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381 FXUS64 KMOB 300342 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1042 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the TAF cycle. Winds remain light overnight while generally becoming westerly through the day on Monday with a southwesterly component closer to the coastline. Patchy, light fog is possible across south-central Alabama in the pre-dawn hours, however, probabilities of fog occurrence remain low. 07/mb && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/ ..New AVIATION... AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the TAF cycle. Westerly to southwesterly winds remain gusty at times this evening along the coast, but will subside after sunset. Patchy, light fog is possible across south-central Alabama in the pre-dawn hours on Monday, however, probabilities of fog occurrence remain low. 07/mb PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 The large mid/upper deep low pressure system over the eastern CONUS (centered over the vicinity of Kentucky) will slowly weaken to a trough extending from New England to the lower Mississippi River by late Monday night. The associated weak surface low will dissipate on Monday, followed by surface high pressure nudging into our region from the northwest by late Monday night. Dry conditions look to continue through the near term as large scale subsidence dominates the region. Lows tonight and Monday night should continue to range in the lower to mid 60s over interior locations and in the upper 60s to mid 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. Highs Monday will again be warm in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. The rip current risk will become LOW this evening and should remain LOW through Thursday. /22 SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERMS... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 The forecast for mid week into the weekend continues to be a challenge, especially Friday through Sunday. Guidance continues to advertise a weakening upper level trough stretching from over the eastern Conus to the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough leaves the southern portion over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western Gulf of Mexico, being anchored between an upper ridge building west over the Southern Plains, and building upper level high pressure over the Caribbean. From late Thursday on, inconsistency in both run to run and between the models is the problem. The current runs are advertising the Caribbean upper ridge building north over the East Coast late Thursday as a tropical wave moves into the Gulf on the west side of the ridge. From there, more shortwave energy moves into the upper trough, deepening it as it moves east over the Southeast, shifting the Caribbean upper ridge south in the process. The current guidance is advertising the tropical wave either developing is an organized tropical system and heading towards the northern Gulf coast(GFS) or remaining a less developed surface low over the central Gulf (the rest of the guidance), with differences in the eastward shifting upper trough governing where the system goes. All move increased moisture inland Thursday night into Friday, with precipitable h20 values over the inland areas of the forecast area rising into the 1.9"-2.2" range for Friday. From there, guidance is adverting drier air moving south over the forecast area over the weekend. For this package, am again discounting the outlier(GFS) and going with drier air moving south across the forecast area. With respect to the upper dynamics, this package is governed by the tropical wave moving into the central Gulf of Mexico before taking a more easterly path as the upper trough shifts further south over the Gulf. With all that said, the increase in moisture will bring an increase in PoPs the end of the week, topping out on Friday, then decreasing through the weekend as drier air moves in. Will continue to monitor, as the play between upper trough and ridge for the end of the week into the weekend continues in the guidance. NHC is giving the system 50/50 odds of being an organized tropical system at this time. High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 are expected Tuesday into Thursday. An uptick in cloud cover and southerly push of moisture towards the northern Gulf coast will bring an increase in cloud cover for Friday through Saturday, with a decrease in daytime heating. Low to mid 80s are expected for Friday and Saturday. Sunday is a wildcard at this point, with cooler northerly flow keeping high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures remain on the more comfortable side, with low to mid 60s along and north of Highway 84 Monday through Wednesday nights before seeing a slight uptick for Thursday and Friday nights as radiational cooling limiting cloud cover increases. /16 MARINE... Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 A light westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail through Monday evening followed by a light diurnal flow pattern through Tuesday as high pressure builds over the marine area. Winds will shift easterly mid-week and increase to moderate to occasional strong while shifting northeasterly by late in the work week. A significant increase in seas is also expected late this week. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 67 88 69 91 69 90 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 71 87 72 89 72 88 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 Destin 74 87 74 88 73 88 73 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 Evergreen 63 88 66 89 65 89 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 63 86 65 87 65 88 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 63 84 63 86 65 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 64 89 67 91 66 90 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob