305
FXUS64 KMOB 302341
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Today through Wednesday night...

An unsettled pattern continues on Tuesday as the area remains in
a northerly upper level flow pattern between a ridge to our west
and upper low east of the Florida peninsula. This will lead to
another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
on Tuesday, starting near the coast in the morning before
gradually spreading inland. High rain chances continue on
Wednesday as a trough moves across the Great Lakes region and
sends a weak front southward into the area. The boundary will
provide a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms
through the day on Wednesday. Coverage will remain diurnally
driven with the highest coverage during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Severe storms are not expected, however minor
flooding is possible as much of the area is saturated. The clouds
and rain will keep temps below normal. /13

Thursday through Sunday...

The front pushes off into the marine area Wednesday night with a
drier airmass moving in for Thursday. Precipitable water values
are forecast to drop below 1.5 inches Thursday into Friday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge to our west will build eastward. The
combination of the drier air and building ridge will result in
hotter and drier conditions for the start of the holiday weekend.
Rain chances return to the area by early next week as moisture
levels increase. Much hotter conditions expected through Saturday
with highs in the low to mid 90s. At this point, heat indices are
expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria thanks to
afternoon dew points mixing down into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Lows throughout the period will be generally in the low 70s inland
and the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms are bringing local
drops in general VFR conditions to the forecast area at 23z. Am
expecting this rain to decrease in coverage through the evening,
then redevelop towards sunrise over the southern third of the
forecast area and northern Gulf. Conditions will be bouncing
between mid level MVFR and VFR in rain and embedded thunderstorms
during the day Tuesday. Fog development is possible tonight,
especially in areas that received greater rainfall today. The key
will be if breaks in the clouds will be enough to allow for
radiational cooling overnight. The chance is low, but still
possible. Southwest to westerly winds around 5 knots are expected
overnight, becoming south to southwesterly around 10 knots during
the day Tuesday.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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