198
FXUS64 KMOB 040851
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
351 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Now through Saturday...
Southwesterly flow aloft continues through Saturday as our area
remains in between an upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic
and a deep, longwave trough over the southwest US. Surface high
pressure also maintains its hold through Saturday morning before
weakening and sliding eastward by Saturday afternoon as a strong
cold front begins its approach. The tight pressure gradient
between the high to our east and the approaching front to our west
will allow for gusty southerly winds to continue through
Saturday. Frequent wind gusts to around 25-30 mph are anticipated
this afternoon, potentially up to 35 mph Saturday afternoon. At
this point, we should remain just below Wind Advisory criteria,
but we will monitor trends closely. Although it will be a rather
cloudy day, not anticipating much in the way of rainfall today due
to subsident effects from the deep ridging in place. That being
said, can`t rule out a few isolated warm air advection showers
mainly for locations west of the Tombigbee River. Slightly higher
rain chances are anticipated on Saturday over southeast
Mississippi and into southwest Alabama as ridging starts to exit
the area and the front begins its approach. Lingering subsident
effects (as seen by weak mid-level lapse rates) and limited
forcing should keep activity relatively tame, however with strong
daytime heating giving way to nearly 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE, cannot
rule out one or two stronger storms Saturday afternoon. Otherwise,
temperatures remain very warm, with highs today and tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s along the coast to the upper 80s
inland. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid to upper 60s to
low 70s. A High Surf Advisory, for surf heights of around 4-6
feet, and a High Risk of rip currents continues through Saturday.
/96

Saturday night through Monday...
The cold front that has been nearly stationary well to the
northwest of the forecast area for the past several days will be
approaching and finally moving into our area Saturday night and
pass across our area on Sunday. Rain chances will be increasing
Saturday night, especially over the western half of the forecast
area, then the main period of rain still appears to be on Sunday
as the front and associated line of showers and storms moves east
across the area. Kinematics remain in place across the region on
Sunday suggest the possibility of a few isolated severe storms.
with damaging winds and maybe a tornado or two. Forecast soundings
Sunday afternoon in the central Gulf Coast states near the instability
axis have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear around 40 knots. Low level lapse rates do steepen during
the day, but mid-level lapse rates remain more minimal. The lower
mid-level lapse rates continue to suggest that the overall
synoptic ascent over our area will be rather weak, with more of a
glancing blow from the jet streak as it is lifting away during
peak heating. In addition, mid-upper level flow remains
unidirectional with no significant diffluence noted. So while some
severe storms could be possible, this patter will more likely
result in the surface boundary to lay out across the area and more
of a heavy rain threat to develop as storms train along the
boundary. If a severe threat were to materialize it would likely
be east of I-65 across south central Alabama around noon on
Sunday. Rain will likely persist into Monday as that upper trough
slowly moves east, but will be ending from west to east during the
course of the day. Saturday night low temperatures will still be
in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the region, but will cool
somewhat on Sunday night in the wake of the front, mainly ranging
from the upper 40s to lower 50s northwestern zones to the mid and
upper 50s eastern and coastal zones. Sunday will be another warm
day with high temperatures mainly in the mid and upper 70s, but a
few highs around 80 will be possible especially in eastern zones
that will see rain later in the day. Cooler high temperatures on
Monday in the wake of the front, ranging from the mid 60s over
most inland areas to the upper 60s and a few lower 70s closer to
and along the coast. The High Surf Advisory, for surf heights of
around 4-6 feet, and the High Risk of rip currents has been
extended through Sunday as the moderate to strong onshore flow
continues through then. DS/12

Monday night through Thursday...
The upper-level trough pushes to our east Monday night into
Tuesday. In its wake, a northwesterly flow pattern aloft will be
in place through the remainder of the period. At the surface, high
pressure builds in behind the cold front which moved through
Sunday/Monday, allowing for a cooler, drier airmass to filter into
the region. Lows Monday and Tuesday nights will dip into the 40s
across the area, although a few upper 30s cannot be ruled out
inland. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the upper 60s to low 70s.
We gradually warm up through the remainder of the period, with
highs reaching the upper 70s by Thursday and lows in the low to
mid 50s by Thursday night. No rain is anticipated through the
period. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Low-end MVFR to IFR ceilings are in place across the local area at
issuance time. Throughout the overnight, ceilings are expected to
lower further, with IFR becoming more prevalent (and possibly some
areas of LIFR at times). Some very patchy light fog may also
attempt to develop which could bring surface visibilities down
into the MVFR to possibly IFR range at times as well through
shortly after sunrise this morning. Best signal for patchy fog
appears to be over coastal counties. Ceilings should slowly rise
to low-end MVFR by the afternoon hours. Breezy southeasterly winds
will continue through the period. Gusts during the day on Friday
could reach up to 25-30 knots before decreasing somewhat this
evening. DS/12

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow continues through
Saturday. Strongest winds will continue to be over the western
marine zones through Saturday, and a SCA remains in effect there
through 7 PM Saturday. As a cold front approaches the marine area
Saturday night, stronger winds will spread east across the eastern
marine zones and seas will increase to around 7 feet offshore.
The front will move through the marine area on Sunday with a
northerly flow developing and becoming lighter, but seas will
remain elevated at around 7 feet offshore through the day.
Therefore, the SCA has been extended eastward over the Gulf waters
for Saturday night and Sunday. A cold front will move across the
marine area on Sunday with a moderate to occasionally strong
northerly flow developing in its wake for early next week. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      83  70  82  69  78  55  68  44 /  10   0  30  50  90  60  30   0
Pensacola   79  70  79  71  78  59  67  48 /   0   0  10  20  80  80  60   0
Destin      78  70  78  71  78  63  69  51 /   0   0   0  10  80  80  70  10
Evergreen   87  66  86  68  79  54  66  42 /  10   0  10  30  90  70  40   0
Waynesboro  86  69  85  66  75  50  64  40 /  20   0  40  80  90  20  10   0
Camden      87  67  86  66  77  51  63  41 /  10   0  20  40  90  50  20   0
Crestview   85  65  84  68  80  57  69  43 /   0   0   0  10  80  80  60  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>632-650-
     670.

&&

$$

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