278
FXUS64 KMOB 031121
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
621 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Upper ridging remains dominant over the south-central CONUS
through the weekend while upper troughing across the far eastern
CONUS persists. Our forecast area remains between these two
features through Friday before a cutoff upper low/trough
retrogrades west this weekend into early next week over the
forecast area. A weak cold front has moved offshore with a much
drier but hotter airmass settling in. Isolated showers and storms
return to areas southeast of the I-65 corridor Friday afternoon
with more typical afternoon scattered showers and storms becoming
established this weekend into next week as moisture returns to the
area. Hot temperatures can be expected each day with highs topping
out in the lower to middle 90`s. The good news is that afternoon
dewpoints drop off with the dry air in place overhead to round out
the week, helping to limit heat indices in the 95 to 105 range
any given day. We continue to monitor the potential for tropical
development somewhere in the northeast gulf or off the southeast
U.S. coast late week into the weekend in association with the
aforementioned weak front gradually washing out, however
confidence is low on if development occurs and where it would go
if it did develop. Most forecast guidance is starting to lean
towards development off the southeast U.S. coastline if there is
any development at all. A Low risk of rip currents remains through
the weekend and early next week. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions under northerly winds expected for most of the
forecast. A shift in winds to westerly is expected in the
afternoon for stations south of I-10, before becoming a light
northerly in the mid to late evening.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

No marine impacts are expected outside of showers and storms
through early next week. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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