428
FXUS64 KMOB 041049
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
549 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 547 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

 - Rounds of heavy rainfall may result in areas of life-
  threatening flash flooding today, especially over the Florida Panhandle.
  Some residual river flooding is also expected through midweek.

 - A HIGH risk of rip currents continues for coastal Alabama and
   northwest Florida beaches through at least Monday.

 - Minor coastal flooding is expected early this morning during high
   tide with water levels up to 2 feet above normally dry ground.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A very moist tropical air mass remains in place this
morning with widespread rain and embedded convection streaming
onshore. The 00z LIX sounding observed a PWAT of 2.58 inches, which
exceeds the daily record. However, weak lapse rates have limited
widespread convective coverage and lightning activity as
thermodynamic profiles remain saturated and moist adiabatic through
the column.

This has been a challenging forecast as CAMs have struggled to
resolve a mesolow, which has been downtrending in strength. As a
result, forecast totals have come down slightly. Regardless, slow-
moving bands of heavy rain moving onshore will continue to impact
areas southeast of I-65 and remain capable of producing flash
flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for coastal counties
through midnight tonight.

Additional rainfall totals of 2-5 inches are expected across much of
the Watch area, with localized storm totals of 6-10 inches still
possible, though this is starting to look less likely. Totals
northwest of I-65 look lower overall, with many areas likely
receiving less than an inch of additional rainfall, though localized
2-4 inch amounts cannot be ruled out. The greatest focus for flash
flooding remains along and south of I-10 across the western Florida
Panhandle.

There is also a low tornado risk along the Florida Panhandle coast
given modest low-level shear and sufficient low-level instability
offshore for the development of mini-spinnies that may move onshore
early this morning. Otherwise, no widespread severe weather is
expected, though a few embedded storms could produce gusty winds.
Rain should begin to exit the area by evening, with highs remaining
in the mid to upper 70s away from the coast due to persistent rain
and cloud cover.

Minor river flooding is forecast on the Styx and Shoal Rivers due to
the expected rainfall, while other rivers across southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle are expected to rise to action
stage. Some residual river flooding will remain possible through
midweek.

For the workweek, a diffuse cold frontal zone moves into the area
tonight into Monday, bringing northeasterly flow and gradually
decreasing moisture and rain chances through midweek as it pushes
offshore. Scattered showers and storms remain possible Monday
afternoon with PWATs still around 2 inches. Drier air will begin to
filter into inland areas Tuesday, with dry conditions expected
through the remainder of the workweek. Highs will be in the 80s with
seasonably cool lows as northwest flow aloft develops with a broad
trough over the Northeast. Strong northeast winds over the Gulf may
reach Small Craft Advisory criteria beginning Tuesday.

Looking toward next weekend, ensemble guidance indicates troughing
entering the central U.S. as ridging builds west into the eastern
Gulf. This would send moisture back northward into the area with
another potential threat for heavy rainfall. Potential tropical
development will also need to be monitored, as the NHC has indicated
a 20 percent chance of development over the southwest Gulf during
the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A low pressure system and slow moving front over the area will
bring periods of showers and thunderstorms and prevailing IFR
conditions to the terminals for much of the forecast period.
Ceilings will range between 500 to 1000 feet at all of the
terminals. The periods of rain and high humidity will keep
prevailing MVFR visibiltiies of 3 to 5 miles in place at all of
the terminals, and PROB30 wording from 16z through around 21 to
22z reflects the thunderstorm risk with gusty winds of 25 knots
and IFR visibilties of 1 to 2 miles due to heavy rain expected at
times. The thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish after
03z, but prevailing IFR ceilings will persist through Monday
morning. PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Outside of gusty winds with thunderstorms, overall light
winds and seas of less than 3 feet can be expected through Monday. A
cold front will start to push through the waters Monday night into
Tuesday and winds will increase from the east and northeast to
between 15 and 25 knots with the stronger winds out in the open
waters. Seas will respond to these winds and increase to 5 to 7 feet
creating rough conditions offshore. These small craft advisory
conditions will persist through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  68  82  68 /  90  70  40  10
Pensacola   80  71  82  70 / 100  90  50  30
Destin      81  72  82  71 / 100  80  60  40
Evergreen   77  66  82  64 / 100  80  40  10
Waynesboro  77  66  82  64 /  80  40  40  10
Camden      77  65  83  63 /  90  70  40  10
Crestview   77  67  80  66 / 100  90  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through this evening for ALZ261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for
     ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$