616
FXUS64 KMOB 121017
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
517 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 509 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Now Through Tuesday Night...

We are finally getting to the end of this pesky upper level low
as it will begin to slowly lift northeast today. As the low lifts
out, we will gradually enter more westerly and eventually
northwesterly winds aloft today through Tuesday ushering in
increasingly drier air. For today there should be just enough
ascent and moisture for widely scattered showers to occur across
the area. Showers have already developed closer to the coast and
will gradually spread inland this afternoon. Overall, storms
should not be robust enough to pose much of any hazard other than
a nuisance if it happens to rain on you. By Tuesday, the upper low
will have moved into a more favorable location for drier air
finally clearing things out across the area. Throughout this
period, surface winds should remain southerly allowing for a high
risk of rip currents to continue. BB-8


Wednesday Through Sunday...

The pattern finally changes for the middle to latter part of the
week as an upper-level ridge builds over the Gulf. This, along
with high pressure at the surface, will give way to much drier and
warmer conditions. Highs especially by Thursday and Friday will
top out in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low 90s
inland. Factoring in upper 60 to low 70 dewpoints, heat indices
will climb into the upper 90s across much of the area. Overnight
temperatures will also be quite warm, with lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s. Modeled guidance begins to diverge a bit on their
solutions for this upcoming weekend as the upper ridge flattens
due to a passing upper trough to our north. Looking at the latest
deterministic runs, the GFS and the Canadian suggest that the
ridge is a bit stronger and maintains its hold over the local
area. This would allow for the bulk of passing shortwave energy
to remain to the north of the area, keeping us in the dry and very
warm pattern. The Euro on the other hand flattens the ridge
enough to allow for a few shortwaves to pass overhead during the
weekend, bringing higher rain chances back into the forecast.
Interestingly enough, looking at ensemble cluster analysis, a vast
majority of ensembles (~60-70% of GEFS, ENS, and GEPS members)
support the Euro solution of a stronger trough/flattened ridge.
This solution would lead to higher rainfall chances, mainly for
areas away from the immediate coast. Another smaller ensemble
cluster (~10-15% of ensembles) is more of a glancing blow, but
still highlights rainfall for our far interior counties. The
remaining cluster follows the drier solution. With the high amount
of ensemble support, the forecast shows an increase in rain
chances for the weekend (mainly during the afternoon hours). Best
coverage will be over inland counties as the proximity of the
upper ridge should limit convective coverage over our coastal
counties. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions should persist through the forecast. Some isolated
to scattered showers have developed this morning along the I-10
corridor and more will likely develop through the remainder of the
day. These showers will likely be relatively small and should not
result in any impacts to aviation. Any rain that does occur
should only last a few minutes and any reduction in visibilities
would do the same. Winds will be light becoming southwesterly
around 10 knots tomorrow. BB-8


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 509 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Moderate southwesterly flow will persist through the remainder of
the week. Some periods of exercise caution will be possible
offshore throughout the week. BB-8 /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  60  83  68  85  70  88  72 /  40  10  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   78  66  81  72  83  73  86  75 /  30  30  10   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      80  68  82  72  82  74  85  76 /  60  30  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   80  58  83  63  88  66  91  70 /  50  20  30   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  76  57  82  63  88  66  93  69 /  60  20  20   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      78  58  79  63  88  67  91  70 /  70  20  40   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   82  60  84  64  87  67  89  70 /  60  20  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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