359
FXUS64 KMOB 071127
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
527 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

IFR to LIFR ceilings remain across the forecast area this morning.
By mid morning, ceilings should lift to be predominately MVFR to
VFR, with the caveat being reductions back to IFR and LIFR
ceilings and visibilities underneath any afternoon showers or
storms. Tonight looks to be the same setup, with the expectation
that ceilings will fall to IFR to LIFR flight categories after
midnight. Winds remain out of the east-northeast to northeast at
around 5 to 10 knots through tonight. MM/25



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 454 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 454 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Upper ridging remains dominant across the Gulf of Mexico into the
Bahamas helping to keep the forecast area under southwest to
westerly flow aloft. Hurricane Rafael continues to slowly move
across the southern Gulf, staying well away from the forecast
area. Deep tropical moisture continues to be advected into the
area, allowing for isolated to scattered showers to remain in the
forecast through Friday. Best chances for rain will exist along
and southeast of the I-65 corridor today. High temperatures will
once again hinge on coverage of showers and storms, but overall
anticipate most areas at least cracking 80 degrees, with a few
spots managing some middle 80`s, particularly nearer the coast.
Friday will be similar, with highs mostly in the lower 80`s.
Overnight lows continue to be exceptionally warm, only falling
into the middle to upper 60`s inland and lower 70`s nearer the
coast. The November all time record warm minimum for Mobile may be
challenged today as we have yet to drop below 75 this morning,
with the previous record being 74 set on November 5th, 2003. If we
stay at and above 75 through midnight tonight, this would be the
warmest November morning on record for the Mobile area.

Thanks to Rafael sitting in the southern Gulf of Mexico, the
forecast area will see distant impacts in the form of strong rip
currents and high surf. A high risk of rip currents will continue
through the period. Additionally, a significant increase in surf
heights is expected. Surf heights of 5 to 7 feet will reach coastal
portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by tonight, and will
likely linger through at least Saturday afternoon. Given this, a
High Surf Advisory will go into effect for the aforementioned areas
tonight, lasting through late Saturday afternoon. A secondary peak
is possible Saturday night into Sunday night, however confidence is
not high enough at this time to continue the advisory through that
timeframe. If confidence increases, an extension in the advisory
would be needed. MM/25

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 454 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to extend
across much of the southeastern U.S. on Saturday before
deamplifying and shifting east into the western Atlantic Sunday
into Sunday night as an upper level trough translates across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. A surface ridge of high
pressure will meanwhile remain oriented along much of the eastern
U.S. and western Atlantic through the weekend while TC Rafael
slowly moves westward across the western Gulf of Mexico through
Sunday night. A plume of deep moisture with enhanced precipitable
water values up to around 1.75" and weak isentropic ascent will
support keeping a low (20-30%) chance of rain showers in the
forecast across southeast MS and portions of southwest AL on
Saturday. Rain chances may trend a little higher Saturday night
into Sunday given the combination of plentiful deep layer moisture
(precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2 inches) and ascent
courtesy of shortwave impulses translating across our region
within southwesterly to zonal flow aloft along the base of the
aforementioned trough axis. We have trended POPs up to 30-40%
coverage over much of our forecast area Saturday night into
Sunday. The unseasonably warm and humid pattern will otherwise
continue through the weekend, with high temperatures on Saturday
once again reaching near record levels in the lower to mid 80s
across the region. Highs by Sunday may trend back down into the
mid 70s to around 80 degrees given the increased rain chances and
cloud cover, but these readings will still be close to record
territory.

Zonal flow aloft generally looks to prevail across our region on
Monday and may be followed by a building upper level ridge on
Tuesday. Shortwave impulses within the zonal flow pattern and
convergence along a weak surface boundary/trough axis that may be
oriented over our CWA will support at least a slight chance of
rain showers across much of the area on Monday. We will maintain a
dry forecast Tuesday with the ridge axis building over our region.
The ridge axis may begin to shift to our east by Wednesday afternoon
as the next upper level trough axis and associated cold front
crosses the Mississippi Valley region. These features may bring
our next chance of showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. High temperatures will
remain much above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the
early to middle part of next week. Early morning lows are forecast
to be cooler in the mid to upper 50s over interior areas and in
the lower to mid 60s near the coast by Tuesday and Wednesday
morning. /21

MARINE...
Issued at 454 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Light to moderate easterly flow prevails through Friday before
becoming moderate to occasionally strong east-southeasterly to
southeasterly flow Saturday into Sunday. Light to moderate
northeasterly flow prevails heading into the next week. Seas will
increase tonight and through the weekend before gradually
diminishing through early next week. A Small Craft Advisory for
hazardous seas goes into effect this evening for all open gulf
waters as seas increase to the 7 to 9 foot range. Another Small
Craft Advisory or an extension of the current one may be needed
for Saturday night through Sunday as winds increase to advisory
levels. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      85  71  83  69  84  70  79  64 /  30  10  20  10  20  30  40  20
Pensacola   82  72  80  72  81  72  78  68 /  30  20  20   0  20  20  30  20
Destin      83  72  81  72  82  71  81  69 /  30  20  20   0  10  10  30  20
Evergreen   83  68  82  67  83  65  78  61 /  30  10  20  10  10  20  40  20
Waynesboro  82  67  81  64  84  66  77  59 /  10  10  20  10  20  50  40  30
Camden      82  66  80  66  81  65  74  59 /  10  10  20  10  10  40  40  30
Crestview   85  68  84  68  86  65  82  62 /  40  20  20   0  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday
     for GMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight CST
     Friday night for GMZ655-675.

&&

$$

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