Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
026 FXUS64 KMOB 150551 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 An upper ridge over our region will break down on Friday as a large positively-tiled upper trough extending from the northern Great Plains to off the coast of southern California shifts eastward. The southern portion of the upper trough outraces to the northern portion Friday night and Saturday, and becomes neutral to slightly negatively-tilted as the axis crosses over the Mississippi River early Sunday morning. The dry weather conditions will persist through noon Saturday, followed by isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, and then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Dry weather conditions will then follow Sunday night into midweek in the wake of the cold front. At this time, we are not expecting any severe storms, but are anticipating around six-tenths to 1.2 inches of much needed widespread rainfall with this system. Locally higher amounts are certainly possible. High temperatures today and Thursday will range from 85-90 degrees (around 6-11 degrees above normal) before cooling slightly Friday and Saturday, and then into the lower to middle 80s on Sunday due to increasing cloud cover and rain chances. Low temperatures tonight will range from 57 to 61 degrees inland and from 62 to 67 degrees along the immediate coast. Lows will trend warmer through the remainder of the week, and be around 12-17 degrees above normal Saturday night (middle to upper 60s inland and around 70 degrees along the immediate coast) due to a good fetch of southerly winds. Lows will then drop into the 50s Sunday night and Monday night behind the cold front. Beach Forecast: The LOW rip current risk will persist through Thursday night. Increasing low level southeasterly flow across the region will help increase the rip current risk by the weekend across our local beaches, with a Moderate risk returning on Friday and a High risk of rip currents over the weekend. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday evening. Light and variable winds tonight into Wednesday will become easterly Wednesday morning, and then more southerly along and south of I-10 at 5-10 knots throughout the day as a seabreeze pushes inland. Winds further inland will remain easterly or become light and variable. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Small craft exercise caution conditions are possible over the weekend as a cold front approaches and passes through the area. Overall, a light mainly southeasterly flow develops Thursday afternoon, with winds gradually increasing Friday into Saturday along with building seas. A light to moderate southeasterly flow to start the weekend will shift southerly and then southwesterly going into Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest, and then northerly Sunday evening as the cold front passes through the area. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 59 86 61 87 62 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 65 84 65 85 67 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Destin 67 85 67 84 68 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 56 90 57 91 59 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 56 86 57 88 58 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Camden 56 88 58 88 59 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Crestview 56 88 57 89 59 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob