822
FXUS64 KMOB 281749
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1149 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Light
southerly to southwesterly winds will become more variable
tonight. Light northwesterly winds will return for Saturday
morning. /96

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

A pleasant springtime pattern and clear skies will setup in the
wake of this last trough that will last through the weekend.
Westerly to northwesterly flow will develop along the southern
periphery of a rather large upper trough. Drier air will continue
to stream into the area resulting in dry and mild conditions for
the area. A subtle shortwave on Saturday will bring a re-enforcing
front through the area leading to slightly cooler temperatures
Saturday night and Sunday. Expect highs today to range from 70 to
75 degrees, highs on Saturday to range from 73 to 78 degrees,
before cooling off into the lower to middle 60s on Sunday! Lows
will be cool each night with lows in the 40s. A Low Risk of
rip currents will continue through the period. BB-8

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 422 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

The extended period is broken up really into two periods. A drier
cooler start to the week will quickly give way to a likely more
active period by midweek with the potential for some strong to
severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Upper
ridging will quickly build over the area on Monday leading to dry
and slowly warming conditions. The big change comes Tuesday as
that upper ridge strengthens and slides eastward in response to a
very potent upper trough digging into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Timing of this specific trough remains a little uncertain
at this time but with ample return flow ahead of the system and
starting to get more into springtime, this will certainly have to
be monitored for the potential for some strong to possibly severe
storms. Analog guidance and machine learning ensemble guidance are
already rather aggressive for the potential for strong to severe
storms across somewhere over the deep south on Tuesday into
Wednesday. We will continue to monitor this situation over the
coming days as more specific details become clearer. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s Monday before quickly
heating up into the mid 70s By Tuesday and Wednesday. BB-8



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      47  76  43  66  42  68  57  75 /   0   0   0   0   0  20  10  20
Pensacola   52  75  47  66  46  67  58  73 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  10
Destin      54  73  48  66  47  66  58  72 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  10
Evergreen   43  78  40  64  36  68  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  10
Waynesboro  43  77  39  64  37  69  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  20  10  30
Camden      44  75  38  61  36  68  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  20  10  20
Crestview   43  77  41  67  36  68  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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