Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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896 FXUS64 KMOB 061154 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 654 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Mostly VFR conditions will persist through the day; however, some MVFR ceilings have developed this morning across the western Florida Panhandle. These ceilings should rise this afternoon. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out across the Florida Panhandle and immediate coastline late this afternoon. Winds will continue to be around 10 mph out of the east-northeast throughout the forecast. BB/03 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 443 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Mostly cloudy conditions will continue today but most areas should remain dry as a very subtle upper shortwave moves across the eastern US. At the surface, a weak boundary continues to slowly push further and further offshore. Continued overrunning of the front is expected through the weekend; however, with the front being so far south and drier air filtering in from the northwest rain chances will likely be confined offshore. A isolated to scattered shower cannot be ruled out along I-10 or south but overall most of the area should remain dry. Really it`ll just be cloudy across the area from the overrunning. By Monday, the upper shortwave will depart to the east leading to the final push of drier air into the area and clearing out skies. Given a tightening pressure gradient along our marine waters, seas will increase throughout the week leading to a HIGH rip current risk by Monday night. Temperatures will remain mild given the clouds cover with highs in the mid 80s across the northwester where clouds will be thinner and low 80s across the Florida Panhandle. Temperatures then increase on Monday as clouds clear allowing for more mid to upper 80s across the entire area. BB/03 LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Much of this forecast period will be characterized as post-frontal with no rain in sight this week nor this upcoming weekend and rather pleasant, fall temperatures (especially late in the week). The cold front will have passed through the area and be well to our south over the Gulf as we roll into Tuesday morning. Drier air will continue to filter into the region in the wake of the front, especially as the local area remains on the northern and eventually the northwestern side of Milton. Milton is forecast to be a hurricane in the southern Gulf (well south of our local area) by Tuesday morning and a MAJOR HURRICANE by Tuesday evening. Milton poses no threat to our local area and the only impacts we will receive locally are along the beaches and out over our Gulf waters. Surf will continue to build through the day on Tuesday with breakers of 4-7 feet on Wednesday. The risk of rip currents remains HIGH on Tuesday as swell from Milton reaches our beaches. Conditions along the coast will improve late Wednesday into Thursday. In the wake of the front and hurricane, high temperatures will only top out in the low 80s to upper 70s area-wide Tuesday through Sunday. Lows will bottom out in the 50s across inland communities with low 60s at the beaches in this pattern. 07/mb MARINE... Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Moderate to occasionally strong east-northeasterly winds will continue through Sunday. Seas will increase to around 4 to 7 feet offshore by Monday and a small craft advisory has been issued Monday. Additional small craft advisories will likely be needed as Tropical Storm Milton moves east across the southern Gulf by midweek leading to a significant increase in winds and seas. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 85 67 89 63 85 63 85 61 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 83 70 87 67 85 68 83 63 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 82 71 87 70 86 70 81 64 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 83 63 89 57 85 60 84 55 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 63 89 57 82 58 84 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 83 62 87 56 82 59 83 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 81 65 89 60 86 62 82 57 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob