950
FXUS64 KMOB 041134
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

We continue with a pattern where half of the area gets a daily
drenching while the other half of the area remains dry.
Southwesterly flow aloft continues through at least mid-week as a
trough hovers over the region, sandwiched between a ridge to our
west and to our east. Deep onshore flow will allow moisture to
continue to funnel into the eastern half of the area, especially
across the coastal counties where a weak front continues to stall
out. PWATs remain juicy today as they hover in the 2.2-2.5 inch
range near the coast and east of I-65. PWATs still remain above 2
inches east of I-65 on Tuesday while the corridor of moisture
continues to slim down as we roll into Wednesday. Meanwhile, drier
air tries to work its way into our northwestern-most counties, so
southeast Mississippi will likely miss out on much of the rain in
the upcoming days. The aforementioned weak front will focus
convective activity along the coast and generally across the eastern
portion of the area (east of I-65) for the next several days. We are
not concerned with severe weather in this pattern. However, we are
concerned about the continued threat for minor flooding as slow-
moving storms repeatedly move over the same locations. This will not
be widespread flooding as convection is expected to remain scattered
in the afternoon hours. That said, storms the past few days have
been efficient rainmakers with 2-3 inches of rain falling in a
relatively short-period of time and this trend will continue today
into Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. While
we will start next week on a soggy note, we transition back into
more of a summertime convection pattern later in the week.

Temperatures will be cooler-ish (heavy emphasis on the -ish in that
statement) across the eastern half of the area today and Tuesday
given the cloud cover and storms. Highs will remain in the 90s
across the rest of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama given
the lack of clouds and storms. The temperatures start creeping back
toward normal for this time of year once we get deeper into the work
week. That said, there are no heat stress concerns this week.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains low through this
afternoon. For the Florida panhandle beaches, the risk increases to
a MODERATE tonight through Tuesday night. For the Alabama beaches,
the risk remains LOW tonight before briefly increasing to a MODERATE
on Tuesday and back down to a LOW risk that night. The risk should
be LOW for the remainder of the work week. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility prevail early this morning
across the region, particularly near and east of the I-65
corridor. Expect flight category to improve over the next few
hours to prevailing VFR to MVFR outside of showers and storms
through this afternoon. Winds remain out of the northeast at
around 5 to 10 knots this morning, turning southeasterly nearer
the coast late morning into the afternoon hours. MVFR to locally
IFR flight category will likely return tonight similar to the past
couple nights for much of the area, particularly anywhere that
receives a decent amount of rainfall today. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A weak front continues to hover along the coastline and out over the
Gulf waters early this week. Winds will vary in direction with the
nearby front but wind speed looks generally light. In addition to
winds and seas higher near storms, reductions in visibility are
likely in heavy rains and frequent lightning will also pose a
hazard to recreational and commercial boating interests. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  72  88  73  90  73  91  72 /  70  50  80  40  70  30  70  30
Pensacola   88  76  87  76  89  76  91  75 /  80  70  90  50  70  40  70  40
Destin      88  77  88  78  90  76  90  76 /  80  80  90  50  70  40  70  50
Evergreen   86  71  88  70  91  70  91  70 /  80  60  80  30  70  20  50  20
Waynesboro  88  70  90  70  91  70  91  69 /  50  30  60  20  50  20  50  20
Camden      83  71  87  70  89  71  90  70 /  70  50  60  20  50  20  40  20
Crestview   87  72  88  71  90  71  91  71 /  90  70  90  40  80  30  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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