938
FXUS64 KMOB 080020
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Fog and low stratus is rapidly developing along the coastal areas
with IFR to LIRF visibilities (vsbys) and ceilings (cigs) as of
00z. These low cigs and vsbys will continue to advect gradually
inland and with a very moist low level airmass characterized by
upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints advecting over the cool nearshore
waters and bays, there will be a more prevalent advective sea fog
component tonight that will impact the near coastal TAF sites.
Expect IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys this evening drop down to LIFR
and VLIFR later this evening and persist through early Saturday
morning. Vsbys and cigs will gradually improve through the late
morning into the afternoon to at least MVFR to at times VFR. The
exception may be at KJKA and KBFM, where the potential for sea fog
through the day may persist. Southerly winds will be light
overnight but increase to around 10kts with some higher gusts by
Saturday afternoon. /JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The near term for the most part remains dry outside of a few stray
warm advection showers this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon.
Generally zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure over the area
will continue through Saturday night.

The primary forecast challenge remains the delineation between
widespread dense fog and low level stratus. Current thinking based
on the latest forecast guidance is that marine dense fog will become
widespread once again and advect onshore, at least across the far
southern portions of Mobile and Baldwin Counties, perhaps even into
the southern portions of the western Florida Panhandle. Confidence
has increased on the occurrence of dense fog across this area, and a
dense fog advisory is being issued for tonight into Saturday morning
for those areas. Further inland things remain challenging as winds
above the decoupled boundary layer will be rather strong in the 15
to 20 knot range, not something you typically want to see for
radiational fog. This also means we may not see the marine fog make
it as far inland tonight as previous nights have seen with a greater
propensity for mixing to occur. Effectively the winds above the
decoupled boundary layer will be nearly twice as strong as they were
last night, which makes maintaining dense marine fog inland rather
difficult. Further assessment will be needed before deciding on the
inland extent of any dense fog advisories. Saturday night will
likely see the same problems, with similar forecast philosophy as
mentioned above.

Temperatures will be quite warm overall with highs topping out in
the middle to upper 70`s, perhaps even a few spots touching 80
degrees both today and Saturday, once again approaching record high
territory for some locations. Overnight lows will be warm, only
falling into the lower to middle 60`s for most locations. A Low risk
of rip currents continues through Saturday night. MM/25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 354 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The high level flow remains in a nearly zonal, west to east
orientation to close out the weekend. Surface high pressure over
the southwest Atlantic noses westward across the Florida Peninsula
through Sunday. A weak front slipping southward over the interior
Sunday eases to the coast Sunday night before settling out over
the Gulf Monday morning. Very little in the way of sensible
weather, outside of a very isolated shower here or there.

We look to continue to deal with night-time fog development. The
short range ensembles show a good signal in expanding fog Sunday
night with probabilities of visibility lowering to 3 miles or
less exceeding 50% along and south of the US Hwy 84 corridor.
Another round is expected Monday night as well.

Highs 76 to 81 north of I-10 Sunday could flirt with record
territory and some 13 to 18 degrees above normal. Highs mostly 72
to 77 range Monday. A few areas over the eastern zones though in
the upper 70`s. Mild overnight lows Sunday and Monday nights
look to be a staggering 18 to 24 degrees above normal for much of
the area. /10

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

A southwesterly flow aloft evolves through the middle of next
week as upper level troughing pivots eastward into the Plains.
At the surface, appears a complex synoptic pattern sets up with a
frontal boundary or two getting hung up over the Lower MS River
Valley becoming aligned northeast to southwest under the mean
southwest flow aloft. This boundary will serve as a surface focus
for ascent and considering much more rich, deep layer Gulf moisture
intersecting the boundary along with the passage of upper level
impulses aloft, the stage is being set for a more active weather
pattern going into the Tuesday to Thursday time-frame. Several
rounds of rain and potentially thunderstorms will likely occur
through the middle part of next week. Given the increased rain
chances and active pattern, we will probably have to keep an eye
out for potential for stronger storms. Latest 07.12Z global
spectral models suggests enough strengthening wind fields aloft
and bulk shear magnitudes that would support this line of
thinking. However often times in these types of patterns, storm
scale ingredients => shear magnitudes, instability, moisture and
position of mesoscale boundaries serving as a focus for convective
initiation can become out of phase limiting the overall threat or
coverage of strong to severe storms. Will continue to monitor.

Daily highs and lows continue to run well above normal through
the middle of next week. There are indications though of a
frontal passage the latter half of the week which would scale back
temperatures to closer to February normals. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Light, mainly onshore winds are expected through the weekend. A weak
front will sag south early in the week, bringing light offshore flow
Monday, but onshore flow is expected to quickly return Monday night
into Tuesday. Dense fog is possible over all the bays, sounds, and
nearshore waters each night through the weekend, potentially
lingering into early next week. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  79  62  78  60  76  60  76 /  10  20  10  10  10  30  20  50
Pensacola   66  74  64  75  62  74  63  73 /  10  20  10  10  10  20  20  40
Destin      66  74  65  73  62  74  64  73 /  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  40
Evergreen   63  80  63  79  57  77  58  78 /  10  20  10  10  10  20  20  60
Waynesboro  63  81  62  80  55  74  57  77 /   0  10   0  10  10  20  20  70
Camden      64  80  63  77  55  73  55  76 /   0  20  10  10  10  30  20  70
Crestview   64  80  62  81  57  79  58  77 /  10  20  10   0  10  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>633.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ634>636-650-
     655.

&&

$$

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