Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
925 FXUS64 KMOB 301126 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 526 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Strong offshore flow may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters late Monday night into Tuesday. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is expected for Monday night and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 An upper trof progresses across the interior eastern states through Sunday night, with an associated surface low meanwhile bringing a cold front through the forecast area during the day on Sunday. Instability looks to remain limited, with just showers expected with the frontal passage. Have gone with mostly chance to likely pops for Sunday, with the higher pops over southeast Mississippi and interior portions of southwest Alabama. Slight chance to chance pops follow for Sunday night. A positively tilted upper trof meanwhile advances across the western states on Sunday then takes on a more meridional orientation while traversing the central states Monday into Monday night. The upper trof weakens while continuing across the eastern states Tuesday into Tuesday night. A surface low develops over the northwest Gulf on Monday and then is expected to move across the portion of the forecast area east of I-65 Monday night before continuing well away from the area. This trajectory and the short turn around time from Sunday`s frontal passage will limit the potential for instability to improve much before this system moves through. That said, there`s still uncertainty with the trajectory of the surface low, and it`s possible that sufficient instability could be realized over the western Florida panhandle and possibly coastal Alabama to warrant concern. Will continue to monitor at this point. Have gone with chance to likely pops on Monday, then categorical pops follow for Monday night. Rain chances taper to dry conditions from west to east on Tuesday. Dry conditions follow for Wednesday while another positively tilted upper trof advances into the western half of the CONUS. The upper trof looks to split substantially, with a portion continuing quickly across the northeast states Thursday while the remainder slowly advances into the central states on Friday. It`s possible that a cut off upper low may even manage to form near the Baja area. This all makes for a rather uncertain upper and surface pattern going into Friday and Saturday. That said, there appears to be a general consensus for another surface low to develop over the northwest Gulf Thursday into Thursday night which then moves across the marine area or possibly the southern portion of the forecast area Friday into Friday night. Have gone with chance pops for Thursday then likely pops follow for Friday with chance pops for Saturday. Will continue to monitor. Overnight lows tend to remain above seasonable values through the period except for Tuesday night when lows range from the mid/upper 20s well inland to the mid/upper 30s at the coast. Daytime highs will be near seasonable values except for Tuesday through Thursday when highs tend to range from the 50s well inland to lower/mid 60s at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Monday, with a high risk for Monday night and Tuesday. A moderate risk follows for Tuesday night, then a low risk is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 VFR flight category prevails across the region this morning, with ceilings dropping to MVFR flight category this afternoon and locally IFR this evening. A cold front pushes across the area late this afternoon into the evening, with winds shifting from northeasterly to northerly. Winds this afternoon will also increase in the wake of the front to near 10 knots gusting upwards of 15 to 20 knots at times this evening. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Light to moderate easterly winds switch to the northeast on Sunday as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to occasionally strong Sunday night then a southeasterly flow develops on Monday. Winds become northwesterly late Monday night into early Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters late Monday night into Tuesday morning, possibly into the afternoon. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 69 50 66 49 / 40 20 50 90 Pensacola 71 56 69 55 / 30 20 50 90 Destin 71 56 70 58 / 30 30 50 90 Evergreen 68 45 66 47 / 40 30 50 90 Waynesboro 57 41 57 40 / 70 30 60 90 Camden 59 43 60 41 / 60 20 50 90 Crestview 72 51 68 53 / 30 30 40 90 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$