993
FXUS64 KMOB 101146
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Today`s forecast will be a wash/rinse/repeat from yesterday. While
we can`t rule out a few isolated showers and storms along the
coastline late this afternoon, we don`t expect widespread coverage.
The highest coverage of storms will likely remain out over the Gulf
again through the pre-dawn hours this morning. As a result of the
lack of storm coverage today, highs will rise into the low 90s
across much of the area by the afternoon. Given that our dewpoints
aren`t high again this afternoon (PWATs below 2 inches across inland
communities), we don`t expect any heat stress concerns today. Soak
it in because the pattern turns more moist as we roll into the
early half of next week.

An weak inverted trough continues to slide westward across the Gulf
today, around the southern periphery of a ridge anchored over the
western Atlantic. This feature aloft will likely nudge into the
region at some point on Monday and Tuesday as the western Atlantic
ridge also builds westward. By mid-week, the ridge back builds into
the eastern Gulf and moves overhead late in the week. Prior to the
high moving overhead, moisture will continue to funnel into the
region with PWATs surging back up into the 2.2-2.5 inch range on
Monday (potentially lingering into Tuesday). Rain chances will be
high in the afternoon hours on both Monday and Tuesday as the
aforementioned subtle feature aloft slides near/into the region.
Rain chances will start to ease on Wednesday through Friday with
ridging moving into the region. Depending on exactly how the pattern
shakes out, we might be able to lower rain chances on Friday on
upcoming forecast packages. With the ridge moving west of the area
over the weekend, northerly flow will briefly set-up overhead. We`ll
have to keep our eyes to the northwest of the local area over the
weekend as we could see clusters of storms drop into the area in the
northerly flow. As rain chances begin to lower late in the work
week, the heat will begin to crank it up a notch. Heat stress may be
a concern on Friday before we get into the northerly flow.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains MODERATE today for our
Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The risk returns to LOW all
of next week. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Generally VFR conditions prevail this morning. Ceilings at a few spots
briefly fell to MVFR around sunrise (including KPNS terminal),
but conditions should improve by 13-14Z. VFR conditions persist
throughout the rest of the TAF cycle with easterly winds gradually
turning southeasterly along the coastline later this afternoon.
07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Easterly winds persist through early Monday with occasional
surges in the winds to exercise caution levels in the overnight
hours. No other impacts expected other than locally higher winds
and seas possible near thunderstorms. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  74  89  74  88  74  91  75 /  50  20  70  40  80  20  70  10
Pensacola   89  77  89  77  88  78  90  78 /  50  30  80  60  70  30  60  10
Destin      90  77  88  78  89  79  90  79 /  50  40  80  60  70  20  60  10
Evergreen   90  72  90  72  89  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  40  80  20  60  10
Waynesboro  90  72  90  72  88  72  90  72 /  30  10  50  30  70  20  70  10
Camden      90  72  89  72  88  72  90  73 /  20  10  50  20  70  20  60  10
Crestview   90  73  89  73  89  73  91  74 /  50  30  80  50  80  20  70  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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