Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
102
FNUS72 KMLB 020957
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Bull Creek WMA units 90, 107...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
557 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
High rain chances and low confidence in timing due anomalously
high moisture and broad instability in the area. Today, highest
chances (50-70%) for showers and storms between 1 PM and 9 PM,
though an early start prior to noon cannot be ruled out (20-40%
chance). Winds SSW at 5-10 mph, increasing to around 10 mph in the
afternoon. Min RH 60-65%. Afternoon smoke dispersion Very Good.
High temperatures around 90 with peak heat indices around 100.
Thursday, rounds of showers and storms possible through the day,
with rain chances up to 60% in the morning and up to 80% in the
afternoon. Winds SSW 5-10 mph in the morning shift closer to SW
at around 10 mph in the afternoon. Min RH 60-70%. Afternoon smoke
dispersion Generally Good. High temperatures in the U80s with
peak heat indices in the U90s.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
showers late in the morning. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the morning, then
showers and thunderstorms likely late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph early in
the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......800-1300 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4000, then
decreasing to 2000-2800 ft AGL late in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph
late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 75.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........55 56 60 63 65 68 69 74 78 81
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).10 20 20 30 40 50 60 60 70 70
Temp............74 77 82 84 86 87 86 88 85 83
RH..............97 90 79 74 70 65 68 63 70 77
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust. 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.3 2.2 3.1 3.7 4.0 3.1 2.8 2.0 2.2
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S SW S
Transp wind spd.10 10 12 13 14 15 15 14 16 18
Dispersion idx..9 19 37 54 62 75 62 53 40 47
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....Decreasing to 8.
LVORI...............Increasing to 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........79 78 79 81 80 76 73 68 66 66 67 67
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).60 60 50 40 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Temp............82 80 79 77 77 76 76 75 75 74 74 74
RH..............74 79 82 88 88 90 90 94 94 97 93 93
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust. 8 9 12 13 13 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.16 13 12 10 12 10 12 12 12 12 12 10
Dispersion idx..36 22 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through
the day. Showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph, increasing to 10 to
15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-1100 ft AGL increasing to 2100-2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 40.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 3.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66 65 64 66 69 72 75 79 82 83 84 85
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 50 60 60 60 60 60 60 80 80 80 80
Temp............73 74 76 79 83 85 85 86 87 85 84 82
RH..............100 97 94 88 77 75 75 72 68 72 74 79
20 FT wind dir..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..6 7 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 10
20 FT wind gust.14 15 16 17 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.0
Transp wind dir.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.12 15 14 15 16 17 16 16 15 16 18 18
Dispersion idx..8 9 20 31 43 43 41 39 36 36 37 43
LVORI...........7 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
$$
Forecaster...Haley
Requested by...Jared Draxler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2517060.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jared.draxler@myfwc.com