818
FNUS72 KMLB 010933
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for SFWMD Jones p2s...SFWMD
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
533 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Low confidence in convective evolution due to broad, weak
instability and high moisture. Showers and lightning storms could
get going prior to noon (20-40% chance), with high chances (60%)
by 2 PM, decreasing after 6 PM. Possibly early start to showers
and storms Wednesday as well.

Light E-SE winds early this morning increase to 5-10 mph in the
morning, up to around 10 mph in the afternoon from sea breeze
enhancement. Winds shift south while diminishing after 6 PM,
becoming light overnight, then increasing to 5-10 mph Wednesday
morning and afternoon, shifting southwesterly late. Smoke
dispersion Poor to Fair today due to slightly decreased transport
winds and mixing heights, becoming Very Good to borderline
Excellent Wednesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers
                    and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500-1500 ft AGL increasing to 3200- 3800 ft AGL
in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 10
                    to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 41.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 3 in the late morning.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........62  58  60  60  61  66  66  68  70  76
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).20  30  30  40  40  50  60  60  60  60
Temp............75  80  82  85  85  85  85  84  86  83
RH..............97  85  79  75  75  75  75  77  72  80
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   3   6   7   8   8   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.7   8   9   10  13  14  14  14  14  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.5 2.8 3.4 3.8 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.7
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.6   7   10  10  10  10  13  14  13  13
Dispersion idx..4   16  34  43  45  42  41  43  40  36
LVORI...........7   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late
                    in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph early in the
evening, shifting south at 5 to 10 mph, then
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....29 decreasing to 6 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 7 in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........80     83     79     72     63     61
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50     40     30     20     10     10
Temp............83     78     75     76     76     74
RH..............77     88     94     90     90     97
20 ft wind......SE 8   S 6    S 3    S 2    S 3    S 2
20 ft wind gust.14     12     9      8      8      7
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   800    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..S 14   S 12   SW 8   S 6    S 6    S 7
Dispersion idx..33     8      4      3      3      3
LVORI...........3      4      6      6      6      7

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-1700 ft AGL increasing to 3500-4100 ft AGL
in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 61 late in the morning.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 4.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........58        58        71        81
Weather cov.....S CHC     CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).20        40        40        70
Temp............73        80        86        86
RH..............100       88        72        72
20 FT wind......S 2G8     S 5G10    S 8G14    S 8G14
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1700      3900      3500
Transport wind..S 7       S 12      S 15      S 13
Dispersion idx..3         25        60        46
LVORI...........9         4         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Haley
Requested by...James Schuette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2517002.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/01/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jschuett@sfwmd.gov