823
FNUS72 KMLB 141253
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Bear island south...Florida Forest Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
753 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on November 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Southeast winds today will veer southerly this evening, ahead of a
weak cold front passage overnight tonight into Friday morning. This
is forecast to be a mostly dry front, with only a slight chance for
showers late tonight. Behind the front, winds will be northerly. A
few gusts to around 20mph will be possible Friday afternoon. No min
RH concerns, with good to very good dispersion.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL increasing to 4400 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon, then decreasing to
                    800 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 15 mph decreasing to 9 to 10 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 71 late in the morning.
LVORI...............5 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........44  38  31  40  43  39  36  28  31  35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............71  74  77  79  80  82  83  82  82  80
RH..............77  70  67  61  59  56  54  55  57  60
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   7   7   8   8   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.10  12  12  13  14  14  14  14  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.4 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 3.9 0.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  S
Transp wind spd.7   12  15  15  12  12  12  13  10  9
Dispersion idx..6   24  61  71  61  58  58  59  47  11
LVORI...........5   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming west 5 to 6 mph
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 10 mph early in the morning.
Dispersion index....6.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 6 overnight.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........50     40     49     47     56     60
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............78     75     73     72     70     68
RH..............66     73     78     81     87     93
20 ft wind......S 5    S 3    S 3    SW 3   SW 3   W 6
20 ft wind gust.12     10     10     10     12     14
Mix hgt (ft)....600    400    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..S 9    S 9    SW 8   SW 9   SW 10  NW 9
Dispersion idx..7      4      4      5      6      7
LVORI...........3      3      4      5      5      6

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 3700 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....10 increasing to 56.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........55        17        11        7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............66        69        71        71
RH..............97        80        65        62
20 FT wind......NW 6G15   N 9G17    N 10G18   N 10G21
Mix hgt (ft)....800       1700      3200      3500
Transport wind..N 12      N 14      N 15      N 17
Dispersion idx..8         30        50        56
LVORI...........6         3         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Leahy
Requested by...Jason Longfellow
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426553.0/MLB
.DELDT 11/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jason.longfellow@fdacs.gov