492
FXUS62 KMLB 241055
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
655 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

- A HIGH Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all
  Atlantic beaches of Central Florida.

- Unsettled weather continues early this week, with higher-than-
  normal chances for showers and storms. Occasional lightning and
  locally heavy rain leading to minor flooding are the primary
  hazards.

- While a return to more typical afternoon and evening storms is
  expected by mid to late this week, the forecast supports above-
  normal rainfall as we wrap up August.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

A rather amplified upper-air pattern, for late August, was analyzed
tonight across the Lower 48. Ridging has been pushed over the
Four Corners while a trough digs into the Great Lakes. An
additional shortwave resides over the Deep South and North
Florida. This disturbance has an associated surface reflection,
characterized by a stalled front and weak low pressure along the
I-10 corridor. Immediately south of the feature, deep-layer
westerly flow is drawing rich tropical moisture off the Gulf and
over the Florida Peninsula.

Weak low pressure is forecast to push into the Atlantic over the
next 2-3 days, leaving its surface boundary behind over North or
Central Florida. Frontolysis will gradually occur, but anomalously
high moisture content is expected to hold over the district through
at least Tuesday.

From mid to late week, ensemble guidance shifts the longwave
trough toward the Eastern Seaboard. A reinforcing cold front
should enter North Florida but climatology and a preponderance of
guidance both suggest it will not make it much farther southward
than that. Continental surface high pressure will follow this
front, dragging unseasonably cool weather into the Ohio Valley
and Mid-Atlantic. The positioning of the surface high to our
north should promote easterly (onshore) winds late in the week.
While a glancing pass of drier air may impinge on northern
portions of Central Florida around mid-week, moisture values
should return to near normal.

By next weekend, guidance is persistent with a mean trough over the
Eastern U.S. and reinforcing high pressure across the Northeast.
This should allow long-fetch SE flow over Florida. The exception is
that a cluster (15-20%) of members, led by the ECMWF, dig a
shortwave into the Southeast, allowing another area of low pressure
to form just north of Florida. Additionally, some members also show
a tropical wave passing through the NW Caribbean Sea. Anticipate
near-to-above-normal moisture values to remain in place.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Monday...

We`re contending with a somewhat unusual setup this weekend, one
that would be more likely to occur in late September rather than
late August. The combination of a nearby front and persistent
moisture flow off the Gulf will promote waves of showers and storms.
While deep moisture and frictional convergence will be maximized on
the Gulf Coast, occasional rain/storm bands should work eastward
into our area for the next couple of days. While rain chances remain
high (70-90%), timing is difficult; ensemble members generally
support a similar setup to the last couple of days. Ripples of
energy along the front will support showers and storms in the
morning or even pre-dawn hours over the I-4 corridor before activity
drifts east and southward through the rest of the day.

Excessive rainfall is not out of the question, but the highest
potential for this should lie along the I-75 corridor. Nonetheless,
max-member REFS rainfall tallies are 2-4" each of the next two days,
indicating at least a low threat of minor flooding. Areal average
rainfall totals from 1/2" to 1 1/2" will be more common.

We still anticipate enough breaks in cloud cover to reach the mid
80s to low 90s each day. Statistical guidance has been running on
the high side, so lowered temps just a bit.

The lingering long-period swell in the Atlantic will continue to
cause numerous life-threatening rip currents at our beaches.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

The front loses its definition over the area during this timeframe,
leaving behind the plume of higher moisture, particularly from near
Orlando and southward. Additional weak energy crossing the area and
stronger daytime heating should continue to support scattered to
numerous (60-70%) showers and storms. Boundary-layer flow remains
westerly on Tuesday, which may once again allow an earlier start to
the storms. As the flow becomes light northeasterly on Wednesday, we
should start to return to our normal afternoon/evening peak coverage.

Seasonably hot temps in the low/mid 90s will continue with peak heat
indices from 100-107 deg F.

Thursday - Next Weekend...

Onshore winds resume to end the work week, leading to a focus of
storm development over the interior. The setup looks favorable for
some of the storms to drift back toward the coast before diminishing
in the evening hours.

As the synopsis outlined above, the weekend picture is quite murky
due to multiple outcomes depicted in the grand ensemble. For now, we
will trend toward above normal coverage of showers and storms each
day, along with seasonably hot/humid conditions. The CPC 6-10 day
outlook supports above-normal rainfall as we close out August.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A lingering 12-14 second swell from former Hurricane Erin will be
slow to abate, prolonging hazardous currents at our inlets during
outgoing tides for at least 2-3 more days. In the open Atlantic
today and Monday, seas from 3-5 FT persist. Occasional 6 FT seas
through tonight well beyond 20 NM. By the middle of the week, seas
diminish to 2-4 FT.

Expect southwest winds up to around 15 KT with gusts to 20 KT
through Monday. Winds decrease quickly on Tuesday, allowing a sea
breeze to potentially form in the afternoon. Onshore breezes return
for the remainder of the work week, up to 12 KT.

Offshore-moving gusty showers and storms are forecast each day
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Stalled front north of the area will maintain a deep W/SW flow and
moist airmass across the region. This will continue high rain
chances, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing
early and pushing eastward across east central Florida and offshore.
This activity will lead to gusty winds and tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions, with a few stronger storms producing strong wind
gusts to 35-45 knots.

There remains some uncertainty on exact timing of TSRA impacts as
there could be multiple rounds of convection moving through today.
For now have maintained 3-hour MVFR TSRA tempo windows, with the
earliest start at KLEE at 13-16Z, 14-17Z through the I-4 corridor
(KMCO/KISM/KSFB/KDAB), 15-18Z at KMLB/KTIX, 16-19Z at KVRB-KFPR, and
17-20Z at KSUA. As this activity shifts offshore, lingering areas of
light rain will persist through at least sunset, but can`t rule out
some redeveloping isolated to scattered showers and storms into the
evening hours.

W/SW winds will increase to 7-12 knots with some higher gusts up to
17-20 knots even outside of showers and storms. W/SW winds will then
diminish to 4-6 knots into tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  75  89  75 /  70  40  70  20
MCO  87  75  90  75 /  80  40  80  20
MLB  88  75  90  75 /  80  40  80  40
VRB  88  73  91  72 /  80  40  80  40
LEE  85  75  89  75 /  90  40  70  20
SFB  86  75  89  75 /  70  40  70  20
ORL  87  75  89  75 /  80  40  80  20
FPR  91  72  91  72 /  80  40  80  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Weitlich