081
FXUS62 KMLB 081904
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- Isolated to scattered storms are forecast this evening.
  Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph, and locally heavy
  rain will accompany the strongest storms.

- Coverage of showers and storms will gradually increase later in
  the workweek as moisture builds over Florida.

- Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity
  persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F,
  visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek
  breaks in the shade or A/C.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...A loose pressure gradient as the ridge
axis of the Atlantic high weakly reaches towards Central Florida
has resulted in a fairly light and variable wind field. The sea
breeze has developed and pushed inland a bit from the Cape south,
while being pinned near the coast to the north, due to upper
level clouds. Broadly speaking, slightly below normal moisture
looks to support isolated to scattered showers (chances 30-50%)
initially developing on the sea breezes in the late afternoon,
with the highest coverage along the sea breeze collision in the
evening over the inland counties. While there`s plenty of
instability and decent lapse rates (especially in the low-levels),
dry/warm mid- levels have again been a significant hurdle to
convection. So far this afternoon have only seen a few short
lived, light showers, and a single lightning storm in East Central
Florida. Expect a little more destabilization over the next
couple hours from daytime heating, which will help some, but for
the most part will need boundaries to find pockets of higher low-
level moisture to get deeper convection going. Frequent lightning
strikes, wind gusts of 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will
accompany the stronger storms. Afternoon highs in the L90s
combined with humidity will result in peak heat indices 100-106F.

Wednesday-Weekend...(Modified Previous Discussion) No significant
changes to the overall pattern Wednesday. Maybe a little more
moisture to work with, which could support more scattered than
isolated showers and storms (chances 40-60%), especially on the
sea breeze collision over the interior in the late afternoon and
evening. By Thursday, a modest increase in available moisture,
combined with weak south to southwest flow in the lower
troposphere as the ridge axis shifts south, will support 50-70%
chances for showers and storms in the heat of the afternoon,
persisting into the early evening hours. Propagation of some
storms toward the coast should be anticipated. Typical July heat
and humidity will continue with heat indices maxing out as high as
106 deg F or so. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria, the
extended duration of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk conditions
will increase the risk for heat-related illness, especially for
vulnerable individuals with compromised health or insufficient
access to air conditioning.

Early Next Week...(Previous Discussion) Guidance continues to show
dominant ridging over the subtropics, with the caveat of a
potential weakness or TUTT off the East Coast. This has some
potential to drag higher moisture over the state, leading to
continued scattered-numerous coverage of showers and storms.
Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions. High pressure over the
Atlantic basin remains in control as a weak surface ridge axis
meanders north and south across Central Florida and the local
Atlantic waters through the week. A very loose pressure gradient
the next couple days will result in light and variable flow, with
winds shifting onshore from the afternoon through the early
overnight, to offshore from the late overnight through the
morning, with the diurnal sea breeze circulation. South to
southeasterly flow, backing in the afternoon and evening with the
sea breeze, becomes more established by late week into the
weekend. Winds 5-10 kts, becoming light at times. Seas 1-3 ft.
Mostly isolated showers and storms expected across the Atlantic
waters today and Wednesday, then chances increase the second half
of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Sparse showers initializing along the sea breeze early this
afternoon which is significantly lower coverage than observed
this time yesterday. Timing of limited convection will generally
be pushed beyond 19-20Z, favoring KMCO right along the sea breeze
collision. TEMPOs included for interior sites and northern coastal
locations for MVFR/IFR in convection with less confidence along
the Treasure Coast. Activity ending 00-01Z with variable winds
overnight. Sea breeze development again at 16-17Z, with another
round of afternoon storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  75  91 /  20  50  30  50
MCO  76  92  75  93 /  30  60  30  60
MLB  76  89  76  90 /  20  40  20  50
VRB  73  90  73  90 /  10  30  20  50
LEE  77  91  75  92 /  20  50  30  60
SFB  77  93  75  93 /  20  60  30  60
ORL  77  92  76  93 /  20  60  30  60
FPR  73  90  74  90 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Schaper