315
FXUS62 KMLB 161734
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
134 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

- Elevated fire weather danger persists today. Steady breezes will
  surge drier air down the peninsula.

- No rain is forecast through the weekend. Next week, there is at
  least a low chance of a few showers and storms.

- A slow warming trend gets underway late this week and through
  the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

A weakening cold front will continue moving southward across the
Florida peninsula this morning, with a drier air mass filtering in
from the north behind it. Cloud cover along and ahead of the front
will continue to diminish as the front pushes southward, with
clear skies forecast across east central Florida this afternoon.
Rain is not forecast through today. Northerly winds becoming more
northeasterly along the coast this afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze develops and moves inland. Highs generally in the mid 70s
to low 80s along the coast, and in the low to mid 80s across the
interior.

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions persist across
east central Florida today due to low minimum RH values and
continued drying of fuels, with the lowest RH values focused
across the interior. Proper fire safety cautions should be taken,
including avoiding starting any sparks or flames, properly
discarding cigarettes, and keeping vehicles off of dry grass.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

              ----------Synoptic Overview----------

Florida rests within a tranquil weather pattern over the coming
days. The current setup across the U.S. rhymes, to a large extent,
with what we saw last weekend. A trough resides along the East
Coast, forcing a cold front down the peninsula this morning. Ridging
emanates from Mexico to the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. On the
West Coast, we find a classic rex block featuring a cut-off low off
the California coast and a strong ridge over the Gulf of Alaska.

Little downstream blocking is indicated over the N Atlantic,
allowing modest progression of this pattern initially. By Friday,
the trough over the Northeast will have lifted into the Canadian
Maritimes, allowing the ridge west of Florida to build eastward and
over the state. The position of the cut-off low over the Desert
Southwest, well south of the polar jet, will slow its forward
movement. This should place Florida beneath the burgeoning ridge
for a longer period (through at least the weekend). H5 heights are
forecast to exceed the the percentile of climatology for mid-
April (591+ dam).

Confidence quickly disintegrates thereafter, with guidance unable to
pin down the details for next week. As the disturbance to the west
finally ejects toward the Great Lakes, cluster analysis of the
recent global ensemble suite reveals a disagreement with how it will
interact with energy along the U.S.-Canadian border. There are also
stark differences within the lower-latitude pattern by this time,
which should feature a strengthening subtropical jet segment over N
Mexico and a potentially retrograding trough over the Antilles. Such
a complex pattern will take at least a couple more days to resolve.

Behind this morning`s cold front, surface high pressure will slip
by to our north over the next two days before pushing off the
Carolina coast by late Friday. The high should move little this
weekend, introducing a long period of east-to-southeast winds. By
early next week, NAEFS members are more bullish with an
approaching cold front while the EPS largely keeps the ridge
closer to the state through at least mid-week.

While slowly modifying, the surge of dry air arriving today will
largely remain in place through the weekend. As the guidance
diverges next week, moisture values have at least a low/medium
chance of increasing to near or above normal, posing our next
opportunity for convection.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Other than a rogue sprinkle, the frontal passage early today will be
noticed only by some cloud cover. Skies clear this afternoon as
winds turn north to northeast - and breezy along the coast. Much
drier air surges in here, so sensitive fire weather conditions
persist. High temps will be coolest north of Cape Canaveral (70s),
with low/mid 80s elsewhere. Below-normal temps are expected tonight
with 50s for most locales. A couple of our typically colder spots
may touch the upper 40s.

Thursday - Weekend...

Quiet weather persists with mostly sunny skies through Saturday
giving way to a few more clouds on Easter Sunday. Steady east-
southeast breezes each afternoon will keep our warmest readings over
the interior. By Sunday, places like Greater Orlando down to
Okeechobee should be closing in on 90 degrees. Dew points should
remain manageable, in the 50s to mid 60s. Outdoor plans look good to
go, but the sunscreen will be needed. At least a moderate risk of
life-threatening rip currents persists at our beaches!

Next Week...

As mentioned in the overview, confidence is lower than normal as the
setup becomes quite complex in this timeframe. We decided to stay
close to our statistical blend of models. This introduces low
chances (20-30%) for showers and storms by Tuesday and Wednesday as
moisture starts to return. However, this activity could begin a day
earlier (or later) depending on how the pattern plays out. With no
clear frontal passages, temps are forecast to be a bit above normal
(mid 80s to near 90F).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

A cold front settles south of the local Atlantic today. High
pressure brushes by to the north over the next couple of days before
reaching the Western Atlantic and remaining nearly stationary this
weekend. Moderate to fresh north winds early today briefly cause
poor boating conditions especially north of Cape Canaveral. Winds
slacken by this afternoon and quickly turn onshore beginning
Thursday, slowly freshening through the weekend while veering toward
the southeast.

Gulf Stream seas will be quite rough today, 3-6 FT, as dominant
periods remain short and wind-driven. Nearshore, expect 2-4 FT seas,
the lesser south of Cape Canaveral. From Thursday through the
weekend, seas subside to 2-4 FT for the entire local Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. N-NNE winds 10-15
kts, with gusts 20-25 kts along the coast, early this afternoon
shift to the NE through the late afternoon and evening, becoming
light and variable overnight, then becoming NE-ENE 5-10 kts
Thursday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast
today as much drier air surges down the peninsula. The lowest RH
readings should reside along and to the northwest of I-4, in the 20-
25% range. These values increase to 30-40% along the Volusia-Brevard
coasts and upwards of 45%+ south of Vero Beach. As a sea breeze
initially arrives this afternoon, there is a low chance that a short
period of critical fire weather conditions will occur especially
over Volusia and N Brevard counties.

Winds turn onshore (easterly 8-14 mph) the rest of the week, slowly
increasing moisture values. RHs are still forecast to plunge to 28-
35% over the far interior on Thursday but then remain above critical
thresholds thereafter. A few gusts to 20-25 mph each day, especially
near the coast. Very good dispersion each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  79  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  57  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  61  79  66  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  60  80  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  55  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  56  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  59  84  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  59  79  64  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Haley