167
FXUS62 KMLB 081756
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1256 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

- Cold mornings will continue through Friday, followed by a brief
  warmup Saturday before turning colder once again on Sunday and
  into the middle of next week.

- Patchy to areas of frost are forecast each morning through
  Friday morning, mainly north of I-4 and across the interior.

- Hazardous marine conditions redevelop tonight and continue
  through Thursday across all the Atlantic waters

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Cold high pressure centered over the central U.S. will continue
to produce N/NW winds around 10 mph inland and closer to 10 to 15
mph along the coast today. This will maintain cooler temperatures,
around 5 to 10 degrees below normal into the afternoon. Highs
will range from the upper 50s across Lake and Volusia counties and
in the 60s farther south. Airmass remains quite dry and other
than passing high cirrus clouds today and developing diurnal cu
south of Orlando, skies will range from mostly sunny to partly
cloudy.

Attention then turns into tonight, as another push of colder air
works its way into the area, with temperatures for many spots
falling to their coldest temps so far for this week (and season).
Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 30s across much of
east central Florida. However, we could see temperatures reach
near freezing across northern Lake and northwest Volusia
counties. The other exception will be Martin County where lows are
forecast in the low 40s currently. This will combine with
northwest winds near 10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast
to produce wind chill values as low as the mid 20s to low 30s late
tonight through early Thursday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory
will likely be needed for tonight through early Thursday morning
for much of the east central Florida and this will be closely
looked at for the next update.

The elevated wind speeds and larger dewpoint depressions into
tonight should limit frost development, but still can`t rule out
patchy frost in more wind sheltered locations, especially across
the interior where winds will be a little lower.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Current... Cold, dry air remains in place across east central
Florida this morning, along with north to northwest winds of 10 mph
or less across the interior, and around 10 mph along the coast. Wind
chill values have dropped into the mid to upper 30s across most of
east central Florida, with the Treasure Coast dropping into the low
to mid 40s as of 4 AM. Patchy to areas of frost are forecast this
morning, mainly north of the I-4 corridor, and into portions of
Osceola counties, where winds will remain lighter. A Frost Advisory
remains in effect for Lake and inland Volusia counties from 1 AM to
9 AM where areas of frost has the greatest potential for form. A
weak coastal trough remains in place just offshore the Treasure
Coast this morning, which is supported by satellite imagery showing
marine stratocu remains confined to the east side of the trough,
with mostly clear skies on the western side. These lower clouds have
produced light showers or sprinkles across the offshore waters this
morning. There remains a low (20 percent) chance that one or two of
these light showers could push onshore across the southern Treasure
Coast this morning. Otherwise, expect dry conditions.

Today-Tonight... High pressure across the central US will build
across the Florida peninsula today as the high shifts southward.
Zonal flow aloft will remain in place, with colder temperatures
locally remaining the primary focus of the forecast. After a cold
start to the morning (forecast wind chills generally in the low to
mid 30s, except low to mid 40s across the Treasure Coast),
temperatures will remain well below normal for this time of year.
Afternoon highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the
north, and low to mid 60s across the south. Overnight lows will once
again be cold, with lows in the low to mid 30s, except low 40s across
the southern Treasure Coast. Patchy frost will once again be
possible late tonight and into Thursday morning, mainly across the
north and west of I-95 north of Martin County.

While mostly sunny to sunny skies are forecast for much of the day,
a few high level clouds may stream across the area into the
afternoon, with some low level clouds possible this morning along
the Treasure Coast from the marine stratocu. North to northwest
winds will prevail today, with speeds generally below 10 mph across
the interior, and 8-12 mph along the coast.

Thursday-Saturday... Mid level ridging across TX/Gulf States will
start to shift eastward on Thursday, building into Florida and
the Eastern US on Friday. Surface high pressure across the Midwest
and Deep South will build over the Florida peninsula on Thursday
as it shifts eastward, moving offshore in the Atlantic on Friday
as a longshore trough digs across the MS Valley. This will cause a
surface low pressure system to form over the northern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, with models shifting this low pressure eastward
into the panhandle/north Florida and the Deep South on Saturday,
while a strong cold front shifts across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and across the Florida peninsula Saturday. Locally, breezy
northerly winds on Thursday will veer east to southeast and
decrease to 10 mph or less on Friday as the high pressure shifts
eastward. Winds will continue to veer southwest to west on
Saturday and become breezy and gusty, with winds increasing to
10-15 mph with gusts 20- 25 mph, as the longwave trough moves into
the Deep south. Winds will then become northwest behind the cold
front and wind speeds decreasing to 5-10 mph overnight.

Dry and sunny conditions will prevail through Friday as PW values
remain well below 1.0". As flow becomes more southerly on Saturday,
moisture will return across the area, with PW values 1.5"+ along and
ahead of the cold front. This in turn will support rain chances
returning  to east central Florida Saturday. There is a low to
medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain from Saturday morning through
the early afternoon, before the front quickly shifts southward into
South Florida and cooler, drier air filters across east central
Florida. Conditions do not appear favorable for lightning storm
development at this time, so have kept all mention of lightning out
of the forecast.

Well below normal temperatures are forecast on Thursday with normal
to slightly below normal temperatures forecast on Friday and
Saturday. Thursday morning looks to be the coldest for the period,
due to radiational cooling looking to to be very efficient as clear
skies are forecast. Not only does this translate to a cold morning
overall, but will also feel colder due to a northerly breeze (5-10
mph), which will produce wind chills ranging from the upper 20s to
mid 30s. As a result, another Cold Weather Advisory may be needed
Thursday morning. Patchy to areas of frost will also be possible
Thursday and Friday mornings, mainly north of the I-4 corridor and
across the interior. Afternoon highs on Thursday will only warm up
to low to mid 50s across the north, and upper 50s to low 60s across
the south. A brief warming trend will begin on Friday, with
afternoon highs warming up to mid to upper 60s across the north, and
upper 60s to low 70s across the south both Friday and Saturday.
Overnight lows will continue to be chilly on Thursday, with lows
ranging from mid 30s to low 40s. Temperatures overnight will briefly
warm up to near normal on Friday night, with lows in the low to mid
50s before becoming chilly once again on Saturday night behind the
front, with lows in the mid to upper 30s to low 40s across the north
to low to mid 40s across the south.

Sunday-Tuesday... High pressure across the eastern US on Sunday will
shift eastward and move offshore into the Atlantic by early Monday,
as a weak cold front moves across the Florida peninsula. High
pressure across the central US will then shift eastward into the
Midwest on Tuesday. Light north to northwest flow will prevail
through Monday with winds veering slightly to the north to northeast
and increasing to 5-10 mph. While temperatures will be seasonable to
slightly below normal for this time of year, morning low
temperatures will remain colder Sunday and Monday, with temperatures
ranging from the mid 30s to upper 40s areawide on Sunday morning,
and across the north and generally west of I-95 on Monday morning.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s on Sunday,
and low 60s to low 70s on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Poor boating conditions in the offshore waters will continue this
morning before steadily improving through the day as high pressure
settles towards the southeast US. Small craft should exercise
caution today in the offshore waters for seas up to 6 feet. North to
northwest winds at 10-15 KT today will increase to 20-25 KT with
gusts up to 30 KT tonight as a reinforcing front moves through
before winds decrease to 15-20 KT by Thursday afternoon. Winds will
then veer east to southeast on Friday and decrease to 5-10 KT before
a strong cold front moves through the water on Saturday, increasing
the winds to 20-25 KT with gusts 30-35 KT possible. Seas 4-6ft today
will build up to 8 ft in the offshore waters on Thursday, before
subsiding to 3-5ft on Friday. Seas will then build once again on
Saturday up to 7ft before subsiding to 2-5ft on Sunday.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting late tonight for the
Volusia waters, expanding to all the waters early Thursday morning.
The SCA will get pared back to just the offshore waters Thursday
night, going through the evening. Small craft should exercise
caution in the nearshore waters Thursday afternoon. Poor to
hazardous boating conditions will redevelop Saturday, with a Small
Craft Advisory may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1255 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the period across all east
central Florida terminals. NNW winds persist, becoming gusty at
times, especially along the coast. Gusts up to 20 knots possible
tomorrow afternoon. Skies remaining mostly clear, with a few
clouds at FL250. Dry through the period, with no rain forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Today-Thursday... Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions
are forecast today and Thursday, making it sensitive fire weather
days through Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast
to drop below 35 percent mainly along and north of the I-4 corridor
today, with RH values around 35-50 percent everywhere else except
the southern Treasure Coast, which will be 50-60 percent. Min RH
values will drop to below 35 percent across the western interior on
Thursday, with min RH values of 35-50 percent everywhere else (with
the higher values occurring along the coast). North-northwest winds
today will generally be below 10 mph across the interior, and 8-12
mph along the coast. Winds will increase Thursday to 10-15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  34  53  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  37  55  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  36  59  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  38  62  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  35  55  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  35  55  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  37  56  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  37  61  41  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-347-447-547-647-
     747.

     Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ041-044-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ552-
     555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Thursday for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for AMZ572-
     575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Tollefsen