323
FXUS62 KMLB 100006
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
706 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

- Deteriorating boating and beach conditions today; High Risk of
  rip currents this weekend and into next week

- Continued above normal temperatures well into next week; Highest
  rain chances on Monday

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Current-Tonight... Isolated to scattered showers continue to push
onshore and well inland this afternoon, especially from Cape
Canaveral southward. Temperatures as of 3 PM are in the low to mid
80s with easterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph at
times. Satellite and surface observations show a few low to mid
level clouds streaming overhead, making for partly sunny skies this
afternoon. Leesburg has tied their record high already this
afternoon, which is 86 degrees (last set in 2018).

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to push
E/SE towards the eastern seaboard through tonight. Breezy and gusty
conditions remain this afternoon with east winds at 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 20 mph at times due to a tightening pressure gradient.
These breezy and gusty conditions will continue into the overnight
hours.

Forecast soundings shows adequate moisture at the surface with  PW
values of 1.2-1.4" this afternoon. This will continue to support
isolated onshore moving showers through tonight (PoP 15-20 percent).
Some of these showers will push well inland this afternoon and early
evening, especially Cape Canaveral southward. The threat for
lightning storms remains limited due to these showers being shallow-
topped. Thus, have left out the mention of lightning storms in the
forecast into tonight.

Warm conditions will persist, with temperatures remaining about 10-
15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will
be in the low to mid 80s along the coast, and mid 80s across the
interior under partly sunny skies. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy skies.

Marine and beach conditions will continue to deteriorate into
tonight producing rough surf and a HIGH risk of rip currents at the
beaches. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged.

Sunday... Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will continue
to push E/SE and off the mid Atlc coast on Sunday while building
down the eastern seaboard. The pressure gradient will tighten over
the local area, allowing for breezy/gusty easterly winds of 10-15
mph with gusts up to 20 mph at times. Forecast soundings shows
moisture increasing slightly, with PW values ranging from 1.3-1
.6". This will allow for onshore moving showers to continue through
the day and into the overnight hours, with PoP 15-20 percent
occurring along the coast and as far inland as Orlando. Some of
these showers may push inland a bit, but shower activity is not
expected to move as far inland as today. Much like today, lightning
storm potential remains limited. Thus, have kept mention of
lightning out of the forecast.

Warm conditions continue, with well above normal temperatures
forecast. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s along the
coast, and mid 80s across the interior, which is 10-15 degrees above
normal. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, which is
8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Mon-Fri...(Modified Previous Discussion) A trough currently just
east of the Bahamas will be steered westward around the southern
periphery of the Atlc high pressure, then NW-N across the Florida
peninsula Monday. NHC has been tracking this feature but continues
to give it only a 10 percent chance for development. Nonetheless,
moisture will increase with this feature on Monday resulting in
scattered showers and isolated storms. With rain chances at 20-40
percent across most of the area, Monday looks like the best chance
for rain. A weak cool front is forecast to push across the area
Tuesday and absorb this disturbance, shunting the deeper moisture
east away from the area. There should be lingering showers on
Tuesday but prospect for lightning storms looks too low to mention.
A period of breezy/gusty north to northeast winds is forecast
Tuesday-Wednesday but max temperatures will only drop a couple
degrees holding in the lower 80s. Have kept Wednesday dry but
forecast model soundings show enough low level moisture to produce
isolated, fast-moving showers off the Atlantic so may eventually
need to add a small PoP then.

A somewhat stronger cool front is forecast to push cleanly through
the area late Thursday/Thursday night. Temperatures Friday will
lower only back to near normal for this time of year as sfc wind
flow quickly develops an onshore component but dewpoints/RH will be
noticeably lower.

A High risk of rip currents is likely to persist through early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Tonight- Wednesday... A reinforcing high pressure will build down
the eastern seaboard through the weekend, with a surface trough or
weak low lifting NW across the FL Straits into early week. A frontal
boundary is then forecast to cross the area Tuesday. Breezy and
gusty conditions returned this afternoon and will continue into
Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens over the local area. Expect
easterly winds at 15-20 KT Saturday and near 20 KT Saturday
night/Sunday before winds decrease and become southeast at 10-15 KT
on Monday, and northeast by Tuesday. Seas will respond into tonight,
with seas building to 6 ft offshore this evening, and up to 7 feet
overnight. Seas will continue to build on Sunday, with seas reaching
reaching the 5-7ft across the nearshore and up to 8 feet in the
offshore. Seas will subside into early week, becoming 5-6 ft on
Monday, and 4-5 ft on Tuesday before increasing once again to 5-7
feet on Wednesday. Small craft should exercise caution in the waters
this afternoon and evening with a Small Craft Advisory going into
effect overnight across all the waters. Isolated showers will
continue to be possible across the local waters through the weekend,
with rain and storm chances increasing into early week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 706 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

TAFs begin with mainly VFR conditions with a mid/upper level ridge over
the SE US. The potential for MVFR CIGs exists at times with onshore
flow in place. VCSH is forecast at KMLB, KVRB, KFPR, and KSUA
this PM and after 15Z SUN at KTIX, KMCO, and KSFB. E winds at 10-16kts
with gusts up to 15-22kts are forecast to diminish into the overnight
at the inland TAF sites at 5-8kts before increasing into SUN PM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  84  71  84 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  71  84  71  86 /  10  10  10  30
MLB  74  84  73  84 /  20  20  20  40
VRB  74  84  74  86 /  20  20  30  40
LEE  70  86  69  86 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  71  85  70  86 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  72  86  72  87 /  10  10  10  30
FPR  74  84  74  86 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM EST Sunday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Sunday for AMZ552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Fehling