523
FXUS62 KMLB 211013
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
613 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

- A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for all east central
  Florida beaches through this evening. Large breaking waves of
  5-7 feet and minor beach/dune erosion is expected.

- The HIGH Risk of deadly rip currents will persist through late
  week and into this weekend as lingering swells from Hurricane
  Erin continue to reach area beaches. Do not enter the Ocean!

- Offshore flow and increasing moisture will lead to higher
  shower and storm chances (~60-70%) during the afternoon/early
  evening hours each day late this week and into the weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Today-Friday...As Hurricane Erin offshore of the Carolinas lifts
north-northeast and farther into the Atlantic, a deeper offshore
flow will develop and persist across east central Florida through
late week. Moisture will also increase across the area, with PW
values climbing to 1.9-2.1 inches, leading to higher shower/storm
chances across the area, up to 60-70 percent. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms will develop and shift eastward each afternoon.
Low level W/SW flow is forecast to keep the sea breeze pinned toward
the coast, allowing for enhancement in storm coverage across this
area as storm/outflow boundary collisions occur later into the
afternoon, with this activity shifting offshore through early
evening. Mostly dry conditions then forecast overnight tonight and
Friday night. It will be hot and humid, with highs in the mid 90s
across much of the area today and low to mid 90s on Friday. Peak
heat index values are forecast to near, but generally remain below
Heat Advisory criteria, ranging from around 102-107 degrees ahead of
showers and storms. Some stronger storms will be possible each day,
with main threats including strong wind gusts to 45-55 mph, frequent
lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall.

Saturday-Wednesday...Offshore flow prevails through the weekend into
at least early next week, as a front moves into and stalls across
north Florida. Moisture will only continue to increase with PW
values around 2+ inches. This will continue high rain chances (PoPs
up to 70% Sat/Sun and 60-70% Monday) and focus greatest coverage of
showers and storms toward the eastern side of the FL peninsula. Some
stronger storms will continue to be possible each afternoon/evening.
The deeper moisture and presence of the frontal boundary will also
increase the threat of locally heavy rainfall, especially into
Sunday, with a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall north of the
Treasure Coast/Okeechobee County. High rain chances and increase in
cloud cover should keep highs a little closer to normal in the low
90s, but peak heat index values will still reach around 102-107
degrees each day.

Deeper moisture looks to shift east of the area toward the middle
portion of next week, which may allow shower/storm chances to trend
to more normal values. Have PoPs around 50% Tuesday and Wednesday.
Highs will tick upward, with values near to slightly above normal in
the low to mid 90s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Today-Friday...Hurricane Erin, east of the Carolinas, will continue
to lift north-northeast through late week. Swells from Erin will
continue to subside today through tonight, falling from 6-9 feet
this morning to 5-7 feet later this afternoon and then 4-6 feet
later tonight into Friday. Hazardous boating conditions will
continue across the entire coastal waters for much of the day, with
a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continuing for the entire waters
through 2PM. The SCA will then end for the nearshore Volusia waters
at that time, and then end for the remainder of the nearshore waters
by 8PM, continuing offshore through 11PM. Long (11-12 sec) period
swells will also lead to hazardous boating conditions at inlets
during the outgoing tides through late week.

Winds remain below 15 knots out of the W/SW during the overnight and
morning hours, and then become more southerly into the afternoon and
evening as the east coast sea breeze struggles to develop from the
offshore flow. Offshore steering winds will also lead to an
increased threat for offshore moving showers and storms into the
afternoon, with some stronger storms possible.

Saturday-Monday...A front will settle into north Florida and stall
this weekend through early next week. This will continue an offshore
flow across the waters, with scattered to numerous offshore moving
showers and storms (some strong) each afternoon and evening. Boating
conditions will remain poor through the weekend, mainly over the
gulf stream for seas lingering up to 6 feet, and also remain poor to
hazardous at inlets during the outgoing tide for lingering long
period swells. Winds speeds will remain below 15 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 613 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Fairly quiet morning on the way with VFR. Keeping an eye on some
showers along the Gulf coast which have a low (<20%) chance of
reaching LEE, but will hold off and AMD if needed. Higher coverage
of storms is forecast this afternoon, particularly at the coastal
terminals between 20Z-01Z. Gusty winds to 25-35 KT and frequent
lightning will be the primary hazards. TEMPOs where confidence is
higher. For MCO, kept a PROB30 where that overall spatial extent
is more in question. WSW winds up to 12 KT prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  91  75 /  70  40  70  50
MCO  95  77  93  76 /  60  30  70  40
MLB  94  77  93  76 /  70  40  70  50
VRB  95  74  94  74 /  60  30  70  40
LEE  93  77  91  76 /  60  30  70  40
SFB  94  77  93  76 /  70  30  70  40
ORL  94  77  93  76 /  60  30  70  40
FPR  95  73  94  73 /  60  30  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil