441
FXUS62 KMLB 061330
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 513 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

- A High Risk of rip currents continues at Central Florida
  Atlantic beaches. In addition, a northward flowing longshore
  current is expected to develop in the surf zone today.

- Breezy and gusty conditions continue today and Monday.

- Temperatures remain warmer than normal, with near record highs
  in the upper 80s and low 90s forecast today and Monday. Turning
  cooler behind a cold front Tuesday through midweek.

- There is a low chance of showers along the sea breeze collision
  this evening. Higher rain chances are forecast late Monday into
  Tuesday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Quiet this morning with the KMLB radar in clear air mode and satellite
imagery showing scattered higher level clouds across the area with
some marine stratocu off the coast. High pressure in the western
Atlantic will continue to slowly shift southeast through today as
a cold front approaches the Florida peninsula from the west.
Locally, gusty conditions and above normal temperatures will
continue. Southerly winds will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to
25 mph this morning before winds settle across the interior to
around 10 mph. Winds along the coast (mainly from Cape Canaveral
southward) will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph in
the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze.
Agreed with previous shift`s assessment against a Wind Advisory
for that area due to the short duration and preexisting daily
breezy/gusty conditions. However, will continue to monitor through
the day. Winds begin to veer south to southwest tonight,
decreasing to around 5 mph.

There is a low (20 percent) chance for showers this afternoon and
evening along the sea breeze collision near the Kissimmee River
basin north to the Orlando Metro Area and then near I-4. Any
lingering showers will then push eastward and off the coast into
the Atlantic through late evening. The overall lightning threat
looks minimal, so have kept lightning storms out of the forecast.
Temperatures today will be above normal for this time of year,
with inland climate sites actually forecast close to their daily
high temperature records. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s
across the interior, and mid to upper 80s along the coast.
Overnight lows will be be in the mid to upper 60s. Forecast is on
track with no major chances to the forecast.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 513 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Today-Monday...Gusty and warmer than normal conditions continue.
Southerly winds today will drive inland climate sites close to
daily high temperature records in the L90s. The east coast sea
breeze is expected to develop between 1 PM and 3 PM, which should
keep most coastal areas in the L-M80s, but a later and weaker sea
breeze in Coastal Volusia today will allow highs to make it near
record in the U80s. Flow veers southwesterly Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front, pinning the sea breeze near the coast or
even keeping it offshore, bringing the entire coast to the
U80s-L90s party along with inland areas, putting nearly all ECFL
climate sites within sight of record highs.

On the subject of the breezes, southerly winds today are forecast
to quickly increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph by late
morning as 925mb winds support a morning wind surge, then settle
back to around 10 mph inland in the afternoon. Along the coast
from the Cape south, the sea breeze will enhance south-
southeasterly winds, pushing speeds to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30
mph, with a couple hours of gusts to as high as 35 mph possible.
Mulled over a Wind Advisory for the aforementioned area, but given
the short duration and preexisting daily breezy/gusty conditions,
held off issuing. Looking towards Monday, there is potential for
southwesterly winds to increase to 15-20 mph with to 25 mph across
much of ECFL from a combination of the pressure gradient
tightening ahead of the approaching cold front and enhancement
from the west coast sea breeze. Pretty much all this is based on
the GFS LAMP (speeds) and HRRR (directions and shifts), which
have been the only model guidance handling these breezy and gusty
conditions the last few days.

For rain chances, CAMs continue to show potential for showers
along the sea breeze collision, near the Kissimmee River basin
north to the Orlando Metro Area and then near I-4 this evening around
7 PM or so, then pushing northeastward/offshore through the late
evening. Went ahead and humored this scenario with a low (20pct)
chance of showers and no lightning chances. Otherwise, dry
conditions today and most of Monday.

Monday Evening-Tuesday...A cold front weakening is it outruns
upper level support (the parent trough is elongating along the the
North Gulf Coast from Texas to the Panhandle) is forecast to
reach ECFL near or after 8 PM Monday evening. Global models are
still in a bit of disagreement over how favorable the environment
will be for lightning storms, with the ECM being a little more
enthusiastic than the GFS. That said, ECM CAPE values are still
lackluster at less than 1,000 J/kg. CAMs coming into range show
varying coverage of showers along and ahead of the front, and not
much in the way of lightning chances. The most favorable areas
for stronger storms look to be just north of the area, maybe
including parts of the northern counties late Monday, and then
just south of the area, maybe including parts of the southern
counties Tuesday afternoon with the aid of some daytime heating.
Speaking of heat, behind the front temperatures finally drop back
into the 70s during the day and 50s for most of the area
overnight.

Wednesday-Saturday...Bit of a sloppy weather setup for the latter
part of the week, as a weak secondary front moves over the area
and dissipates Wednesday, followed by weak high pressure Thursday,
then another frontal passage Friday into Saturday. Onshore winds
Wednesday and residual moisture over the Atlantic waters keep low
rain chances along the coast Wednesday, then dry conditions
forecast at this time through the remainder of the forecast
period, as models depict a fairly anemic late week front at this
time, though it does cut off the Wednesday-Friday warming trend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 513 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions. The
pressure gradient between high pressure centered in the western
Atlantic and a low pressure system in the Southeast US tightens
across Florida and the coastal waters. Southerly winds increase to
15-20 kts across all marine zones this morning, and further
increase to around 20 kts in the Volusia waters this afternoon and
evening. Seas 3-5 ft. A few offshore moving showers possible
later this evening.

Monday-Thursday...Boating conditions further deteriorate Monday as
the cold front approaches, with Advisory conditions developing by
Monday afternoon. The front is expected to push across the area
late Monday through Tuesday, departing to the south and east by
the end of Tuesday. Southerly winds 10-20 kts Monday morning
increase to 15-25 kts in the evening, gradually shifting to the
W-NW and easing to 10-20 kts behind the front. A weak secondary
front pushes through late Tuesday into Wednesday with little
fanfare, then high pressure builds briefly over the waters
Thursday before another weak front late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR conditions are generally forecast to continue today into
tonight. There are some MVFR cigs across Polk County that may
briefly make it into KISM/KMCO/KLEE early this morning. Otherwise,
any cigs will be from developing diurnal cu from around 4-6kft.
Winds will be breezy to windy out of the S/SE, with speeds
increasing to 10-15 knots, with gusts up to around 20 knots
across the interior and up to 15-20 knots, with gusts around
25-30 knots along the coast from KMLB southward this afternoon.

East and west coast sea breeze boundaries will push inland,
colliding around the inland I-4 corridor toward sunset. This may
lead to some variable and gusty winds across KSFB/KMCO/KISM and
potentially a stray isolated shower roughly between 23Z-02Z
depending on exactly where sea breeze collision sets up. However,
rain chances remain quite low (~20%), so not enough confidence to
add any VCSH to the forecast at this time. Southerly winds will
gradually decrease into tonight, falling to 5-10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 513 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions today as breezy/gusty
winds continue and slightly drier air decreases decreases RH
values to 35-45 pct inland (west of I-95), and 45-55 pct along the
coastal corridor. Southerly winds increase to 10-15 mph with
gusts to around 25 mph by around 11 AM this morning, then
decreasing slightly inland after a couple hours (initial morning
surge). The east coast sea breeze is expected to develop between 1
PM and 3 PM, earlier to the south, backing winds to the southeast
and further increasing speeds to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
behind the boundary. There is potential for wind gusts to 35 mph
along the coast corridor between 1 PM and 4 PM. A diffuse west
coast sea breeze is forecast to reach ECFL after 5 PM, shifting
winds across the interior to southwesterly and bringing speeds
back up to around 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The sea breezes
are forecast to collide near the Kissimmee River basin north into
the Orlando Metro Area around 7 PM, which could produce a few
showers (rain chances 10-20 pct), but lightning is not expected.
Winds become light south to southwesterly later this evening and
overnight.

Monday...While breezy/gusty conditions continue, moisture
increasing ahead of an approaching front will recover min RHs to
40 pct or higher, reducing the fire weather risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  68  90  61 /  20  20  20  70
MCO  91  69  91  64 /  20  20  10  60
MLB  86  68  88  64 /  10  20  10  60
VRB  86  67  89  66 /  10  10  10  50
LEE  91  69  89  63 /  20  10  20  60
SFB  91  69  91  63 /  20  20  10  70
ORL  92  69  90  65 /  20  20  10  60
FPR  86  67  89  66 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT Monday
     for AMZ570.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Weitlich