351
FXUS62 KMLB 162320
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

- Increasingly hot and dry conditions forecast for east central
  Florida this weekend and early next week with widespread low to
  mid 90s and near record high temperatures, as well as fire
  sensitive conditions

- Peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-106 this weekend into
  early next week. There is a Moderate HeatRisk on Saturday, a
  Moderate to Major HeatRisk on Monday, and a Moderate to Extreme
  HeatRisk Tuesday to Wednesday

- Mostly dry weather expected through next Wednesday before
  isolated to widely scattered showers and lightning storms on
  Thursday with a "cool" front expected to move over east central
  Florida. Drought conditions will have the potential to
  worsen/expand before returning rain chances.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Currently-Saturday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over
east central Florida and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mostly
clear skies. High pressure (~1018mb) is situated over the eastern
Gulf of America and the state of Florida. Temperatures are
currently in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in
the 90s to 100F degrees and dew points generally in the 60s to
low 70s. Winds are from the east-southeast at 6-12mph with gusts
to 20mph along the coast with the east coast sea breeze beginning
to move inland and from the west-southwest at 6-12mph to the west
of I-95.

Dry and hot weather is expected to continue this afternoon with
above normal to record high temperatures. Dry and hot weather will
continue Saturday afternoon with high pressure over Florida, as
well as 500mb heights at around 591dm forecast over east central
Florida into Saturday afternoon. ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles
indicate afternoon temperatures in the 97.5th to maximum
percentile for this time of year over east central Florida. Lows
in the mid 60 to mid 70s are forecast. Above normal (~5-10F+) to
record high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast. There
is a Moderate HeatRisk on Saturday. This level of heat affects
most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without
adequate hydration. It is recommended that those who spend
extended periods of time outside this afternoon and early evening
to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored clothing, reduce
time spent outdoors or stay in the shade, and take breaks in an
air conditioned facility.

Sunday-Tuesday... High pressure over Florida on Sunday is expected
to gradually shift east over the southwest Atlantic on Monday and
Tuesday. Guidance shows 500mb heights over east central Florida
around 588-591dm Sunday to Tuesday. Additionally, ECMWF and NAEFS
ensembles indicate afternoon temperatures in the 90th to maximum
percentile for this time of year over east central Florida. Dry
weather is expected with high temperatures in the low to upper 90s
and lows in generally the mid 60s to mid 70s. Heat index values
between 98-106F degrees are forecast. There is a Moderate to Major
HeatRisk Sunday to Monday, and a Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk
Tuesday. A Major to Extreme HeatRisk affects anyone without
effective cooling and/or hydration. More information on HeatRisk
can be found at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk. Winds are forecast to
increase from the east-southeast at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph
into each afternoon with the east coast sea breeze generally to
the east of the Orlando metro with winds from the west-southwest
at 5-10mph.

Wednesday-Thursday... High pressure is expected to weaken
and shift southeast over the southwest Atlantic Wednesday and
Thursday before a "cool" front is forecast to move east-southeast
over east central Florida on Thursday. Global models show PWATs
between 1.40-1.70" over east central Florida on Thursday.
Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) and lightning storms are forecast
ahead of the "cool" front Wednesday evening and into early
Thursday morning generally along and to the north of I-4 as the
aforementioned front moves south over northern Florida before
moving over east central Florida into Thursday afternoon. Isolated
to widely scattered showers (PoPS ~ 20-30%) and lightning are
forecast to develop from the northwest to southeast over east
central Florida Thursday morning and afternoon before showers and
storms are expected to move offshore of the Treasure Coast into
Thursday night. West-southwest winds at 10-15mph with gusts to
20-25mph are forecast. Above normal to record afternoon highs in
the low to upper 90s are forecast on Wednesday and the upper 80s
to mid 90s are forecast on Thursday. Heat index values between
98-106F degrees are forecast on Wednesday. There is a Moderate to
Extreme HeatRisk on Wednesday and a Moderate HeatRisk on Thursday.
Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Currently-Saturday.... Favorable boating conditions and dry
weather are expected with high pressure (~1018mb) over Florida.
South-southeast winds at 6-14kts are expected to veer west-
southwest tonight and back east-southeast into Saturday afternoon.
Seas to 1-3ft are expected.

Sunday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions and dry
weather are expected with high pressure (~1017mb) over Florida
expected to gradually shift southeast over the southwest Atlantic
through Tuesday. West-southwest winds at 6-14kts are expected to back
east-southeast into each afternoon and increase to 10-15kts on
Tuesday. Seas to 1-3ft are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions anticipated tonight through tomorrow, with no rain
chances forecast near the terminals. Variable winds tonight pick
up out of the west-southwest at 5 to 10 knots tomorrow morning.
Along the coast from TIX southward, winds are forecast to become
more onshore as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves
inland during the afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Sensitive fire weather conditions are expected through mid week
next week with soils expected to continue to dry out with no
mentionable rain chances in the forecast through Tuesday. Minimum
RH values between 30-35% over the interior are expected Saturday;
however, winds will be relatively light, so conditions will not
reach Red Flag criteria. Minimum RH values near 50% are forecast
close to the coast south of Cape Canaveral. Minimum RH values
between 35-40% are forecast generally over the interior Sunday and
into early next week. Winds will turn onshore each afternoon at
10-15mph with gusts to 20mph behind the sea breeze, mainly east of
the Orlando metro. Above normal to near record high temperatures
are expected each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  72  96  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  72  92  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  71  93  72  93 /   0  10   0  10
LEE  70  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  70  97  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  73  96  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  70  92  71  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen