435
FXUS62 KMLB 060245
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1045 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Scattered showers are ongoing this evening mainly across the
Atlantic with a few showers moving onshore this evening.
Increasing moisture will keep rain chances through the overnight
hours, especially along the coast and over the Atlantic (PoP
20-40 percent). However, there is a slot of drier air that will
move in across the northern interior, mainly north and west of
I-4, that will keep things mostly dry across that area until a
few hours before sunrise when rain chances return. Thus, Increased
PoP to 20-30 percent across the northern interior to reflect this
increasing moisture before sunrise. East to northeast winds will
prevail through the overnight hours, with speeds generally around
5 mph or less. Muggy conditions continue tonight, with overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s. Forecast remains on track with only
minor adjustments to the rain chances overnight and into Sunday to
reflect slightly higher rain chances across the interior than
previous forecasted.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 753 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions through Sunday morning. Mostly dry conditions
expected across the interior through the overnight hours. VCSH
ongoing from VRB southward with VCSH from MLB northward starting
at 02Z and continuing through Sunday afternoon. VCSH starting at
18Z across the interior. Have not included any TEMPOs at this
time. Light ENE winds tonight will increase to 5-10 KT by late
morning before becoming light once again Sunday night. Models
indicate MVFR/IFR CIGs will start Sunday afternoon, so have
included BKN010 starting 20/21Z for all interior sites and DAB-
MLB, and BKN020 starting at 20/21Z for VRB- SUA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Tonight-Sunday... A slow-moving front will sag southward,
reaching the Space Coast late on Sunday. Increasing coverage of
showers and a few storms is forecast. East winds 10-15 KT, with
seas 4-5 FT nearshore - building to 5-7 FT offshore. Small craft
should exercise caution, particularly in the Gulf Stream.
Conditions may become hazardous near inlets as a long-period swell
arrives.

Monday-Wednesday... Boating conditions worsen and eventually
become dangerous. The boundary should settle near the Treasure
Coast early this week. Expect continued high coverage of rain and
storms. East winds around 15 KT on Monday increasing to 15-20 KT
on Tuesday. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible by
Wednesday, depending on how quickly Milton arrives from the west.
Sea 5-7 FT on Mon/Tue, increasing to 6-10 FT on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  83  73  82 /  50  70  60  70
MCO  76  83  73  80 /  20  60  60  70
MLB  77  85  73  82 /  40  60  70  70
VRB  77  86  74  83 /  40  60  70  80
LEE  75  83  73  81 /  10  60  40  50
SFB  75  83  73  81 /  20  70  60  70
ORL  77  84  74  82 /  20  60  60  70
FPR  77  86  73  82 /  40  60  70  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Thursday morning for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-
     347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Watson