126
FXUS62 KMLB 121335
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
935 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

- Very dry airmass in place will continue sensitive fire weather
  conditions across the area today.

- A warming trend will continue through late week and into this
  weekend. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s across
  much of the area this weekend, nearing 90 across the south.

- Next best chance for showers and isolated storms (rain chances
  up to 30-50%) will be late Sunday into Monday, with the next
  passing cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

A dry airmass remains in place with PWATs observed between
0.30-0.35" across much of the state. Fire sensitivities continue
today due to low RHs, but winds are forecast to remain light.
Afternoon temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s. The current
forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure across Florida will shift eastward
into the Atlantic with ridge axis remaining across the region. A
very dry airmass remains in place, with PW values less than 0.5
inches, continuing clear skies across the area. Winds will be light
and variable with speeds generally 5 mph or less. However, a
developing weak east coast sea breeze will allow winds to pick up to
5-10 mph out of the E/SE this afternoon along the coast. After a
somewhat chilly start to the morning, with morning lows in the mid
40s to low 50s, temps will warm to near to slightly above normal
values as highs reach the upper 70s to low 80s. The influence of
high pressure extended across the area will continue light winds and
clear skies overnight tonight. These conditions may allow for some
patchy fog to develop late tonight through early Thursday morning,
especially near to NW of I-4. Lows will not be quite a cool, but
still fall into the 50s most locations into tonight.

Thursday-Friday...High pressure centered east of the area will
continue eastward into the open Atlantic as a S/W trough aloft
pushes across the southeast U.S. and offshore on Thursday. This
passing disturbance and gradual increase in moisture in the S/SW
flow may lead to isolated to scattered showers and a few storms
developing over the offshore coastal waters into Thursday night.
Otherwise, dry conditions look to prevail across east central
Florida through late week. Warming trend will continue as a mid
level ridge builds eastward and across Florida, with highs in the
low to mid 80s by Friday and mild overnight lows in the 60s Friday
night.

Saturday-Tuesday...Ridge aloft across Florida on Saturday pushes
east as a large and energetic trough across the central U.S. shifts
gradually toward the eastern U.S. late weekend and eventually
offshore into early next week. This will shift a cold front across
the area, with current timing of frontal passage either Sunday night
or Monday, with majority of the GFS ensembles slightly faster and
the ECMWF ensembles trending slower with the front and precip. For
now, forecast leans toward NBM with rain chances increasing up to 30-
40 percent into Sunday night and up to 40-50 percent on Monday. The
precise timing and amount of instability available with the frontal
passage currently leads to more uncertainty in overall thunderstorm
potential. However, will keep a slight chance for storms into Sunday
night and Monday. Outside of this passing cold front, dry conditions
look to prevail Saturday into much of the day Sunday, and again
behind the front into Tuesday.

Increasing low level S/SE winds this weekend will lead to breezy
conditions and well above normal temperatures. Max temps will reach
as high as the mid to upper 80s mainly across the interior on
Saturday, and then these values will be more widespread across
the area on Sunday with near 90 degrees possible across the
southern interior. Lows into Saturday night will be quite mild in
the mid to upper 60s, nearing or potentially breaking some warm
minimum temperature records for the date. Temperatures cool behind
the front into early next week, with values closer to normal
(highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

High pressure across the area shifts east, with light and variable
winds eventually becoming southeast 5-10 knots later this
afternoon. Seas will continue to fall today, but poor boating
conditions will persist through this morning over the Gulf Stream
waters with seas up to 6 feet. By this afternoon, seas will fall
to 3-5 feet. Boating conditions will remain favorable through late
week, with wind speeds less than 15 knots and seas decreasing to
2-4 feet Thursday and 2-3 feet Friday. Developing isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms will be possible, mainly across
the offshore waters into Thursday night. Otherwise, dry conditions
will prevail.

Southerly winds will increase into this weekend ahead of a front
that will be moving into the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and
approaching the area late Sunday. This will lead to poor to
hazardous boating conditions this weekend, with winds increasing
to 15-20 knots on Saturday, and 15-25 knots on Sunday. Seas are
forecast to build up to 4-6 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions persist through the day with light SW winds < 10
KT, except coastal terminals where sea breeze veers winds to the
ESE 5-12 KT after 16-18Z. Low potential for fog late tonight,
particularly at LEE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Today-Thursday...A very dry airmass across the area will again
lead to critically low RH and sensitive fire weather conditions
across east central Florida this afternoon, with Min RH values as
low as the mid 20s to low 30s near to west of I-95. However, high
pressure across the region will lead to lighter and variable winds
around 5 mph or less, with a weak sea breeze increasing winds at
the coast to around 5-10 mph out of the E/SE. Winds pick up
slightly to 5-10 mph out of the S/SW tomorrow, which will begin to
increase low level moisture, but min RH values will still fall to
the mid 30s to low 40s near to west of I-95.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  50  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  81  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  78  55  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  79  55  82  58 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  79  51  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  81  52  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  81  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  79  53  82  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Law
AVIATION...Heil