245
FXUS62 KMLB 271902
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
302 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

- Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions on Friday due to
  low relative humidity, an increasing onshore wind, and dry fuels

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions tonight through Saturday
  morning, as east-southeast winds freshen and seas build, mainly
  south of Cape Canaveral

- Weather pattern gradually becomes more unsettled this weekend,
  deeper moisture provides higher chances for showers and
  lightning storms, especially on Sunday

- Increasing temperatures next week with forecast highs 5 to 10
  degrees above normal for late March

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Now-Tonight...A pleasant day weatherwise is ongoing across east
central Florida with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Scattered cumulus are present atop northeasterly surface flow,
which is gusting around 20 mph at times this afternoon. Sensitive
fire conditions have developed and several smoke plumes have been
observed on KMLB radar. Winds gradually decrease after sunset with
temperatures falling into the upper 50s and low 60s overnight.
Worth mentioning, where winds are lighter across interior
locations, some settling smoke from recent fires may lower
visibility on area roadways early Friday morning.

Friday-Saturday...Weak mid level ridging stays in place Friday,
helping to keep dry conditions in place to round out the work
week. A strengthening pressure gradient is forecast to increase
east-southeasterly winds to around 15 mph (20 mph at the coast)
with gusts peaking around 25 mph. Fire danger is expected to
increase through the day (see below Fire Weather section for
details). Daytime temperatures may feel slightly less warm due to
the steady onshore breeze with most locations still reaching the
upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows Friday night dip into the 60s
areawide.

Ridging begins to break down and move seaward on Saturday as
southerly 850mb winds aid in moisture return by Saturday afternoon
and night. Low-topped showers are forecast to reach or brush the
coast Saturday morning before steering flow turns more southerly
by midday. A gradual increase in rain chances (20-30 percent)
returns Saturday afternoon and evening, with a primary focus from
Lake Kissimmee to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Lows
Saturday night are forecast to settle in the mid 60s for most.

Sunday (previous)...Deeper moisture (PWATs 1.3-1.6") and a
passing mid/upper level trough are forecast to combine to produce
the highest PoPs our area has seen in some time. Have capped PoPs
around 60% due to some discrepancies in the models about where the
highest coverage of showers will be, though it does appear to be
across the southern portion of the CWA. Regardless, scattered to
numerous showers appear likely, especially during the afternoon,
with isolated lightning storms. Will need to monitor the threat
for a few strong wind gusts due to dry air aloft. Scattered
showers and a few storms will linger into Sunday night, especially
along the coast from Cape Canaveral southward.

Southeasterly winds, breezy at times, will persist through this
weekend. High temperatures creep upward through the period, with
lower 80s along the coast and mid-80s inland. Above normal
overnight lows in the mid to even upper 60s are forecast.

Monday-Thursday (previous)...A low pressure system moving across
the northern US will drag a cold front toward the area early next
week. Models are in decent agreement about this feature stalling
as it moves into Florida, though not exactly on where (GFS being
the farther southward solution). Nonetheless, the front is not
forecast to reach the CWA at this time, with isolated to scattered
PoPs continuing through early next week amid lingering moisture.
Temperatures will continue to rise, reaching the mid to upper 80s,
while overnight lows settle in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Gradually deteriorating boating conditions are forecast tonight
into Friday as east-southeast winds freshen, especially from Cape
Canaveral southward. Seas climb to 5-7 ft, especially over the
Gulf Stream, before decreasing to around 6 ft offshore on
Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory begins tonight for the Treasure
Coast waters, expanding northward Friday morning. Rain chances
gradually increase from south to north this weekend as moisture
returns to the local waters. Breezy conditions will persist
through at least Saturday before boating conditions improve next
week (outside of shower and lightning storm chances).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Generally VFR conditions through the TAF period. NE/ENE winds
increasing to 10-15 kts with some higher gusts. Winds will
decrease in the evening becoming light/variable over the interior
and remaining 5-10 KT along the coast through the overnight hours.
Increasing winds overnight at 925 mb (25 kts) may favor low
stratus development Vs fog early Fri morning. Winds continue to
veer ESE/SE on Fri with speeds up to 15 kts over the interior and
15-20 kts at the coast and frequent higher gusts (~22-27 kts)
areawide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Friday...Minimum relative humidity values in the mid and upper
30s, combined with increasing east-southeast winds and dry fuels,
will lead to sensitive to critical fire weather conditions. Most
notably, the lowest humidity and breeziest conditions are forecast
over the far interior (mainly west of the Orlando metro).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  78  64  80 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  61  80  64  83 /   0   0   0  20
MLB  66  78  67  80 /   0   0  20  20
VRB  63  78  66  80 /   0   0  20  20
LEE  60  82  63  84 /   0   0   0  20
SFB  60  81  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  61  81  64  83 /   0   0   0  20
FPR  64  78  65  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Sedlock