472
FXUS62 KMLB 101121
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
621 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 239 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

- After a cold start this morning, a brief warmup is expected
  through Saturday, before turning colder on Sunday and into the
  middle of next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers will be possible along the frontal
  passage late tonight into Saturday.

- Hazardous boating conditions return this evening through the
  overnight hours.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure over the Southeast drifts eastward
into the Atlantic today, as a low pressure system skirts the
northern Gulf Coast. This feature will move northeastward through
north Florida tonight, dragging a cold front through the local
area. After a cold start this morning, will see a brief respite
begin today, as temperatures warm to just about average this
afternoon. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, aided by south to southeast winds around 10mph advecting
in higher moisture. No precipitation is forecast through the
daytime hours.

Tonight, winds veer southwesterly and increase to 10-15mph, as the
cold front approaches. Isolated to scattered showers will become
possible along and north of the I-4 corridor in the few hours
before daybreak, as the front begins to drop through the local
area. PoPs 30-50% north of I-4 prior to sunrise. Increased cloud
cover and southwesterly flow will help to keep low temperatures
near to even above normal, in the mid to upper 50s.

Saturday...As the aforementioned low pressure moves northeastward
towards the Mid-Atlantic coast, the associated cold front will
continue southward through east central Florida into Saturday
afternoon. Additional showers will be possible as it progresses
southward (PoPs 20-30%). However, models continue to indicate
little to no CAPE, negating the risk for lightning storms. Winds
10-15mph will veer northwesterly behind the cold front.
Temperatures look to be slightly cooler north of I-4 than Friday,
though still closer to normal than previous days. High
temperatures are forecast in the mid-60s for the northern counties
and upper 60s to lower 60s for southern areas. Dry conditions are
forecast to prevail by Saturday night, as temperatures begin to
drop again. Overnight lows are forecast to again drop into the
40s.

Sunday-Monday...Ridging once again develops over the Southeast US
late this weekend into early next week, with zonal flow in the
lower levels aloft. Dry conditions prevail Sunday, as high
pressure remains far enough north to keep winds from veering
onshore. Instead, persistent northerly flow will once again lead
to generally below normal to near normal temperatures through
Monday. Highs will once again struggle to reach 70 degrees, with
the exception of southern portions of the area on Monday.
Overnight lows are forecast in the mid-40s to lower 50s. A weak
disturbance is forecast to cross the area Monday into Monday
night, bringing the chance for scattered showers. PoPs 30-50%
during this time period, with lightning storms once again not
forecast to be a threat.

Tuesday-Thursday...Dry conditions are forecast to return through
midweek. Continued northerly winds, breezy at times, will plunge
temperatures to well below normal once again. Highs look to
struggle to reach 60 degrees by later in the week, with the
possibility of reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Today-Tonight...Poor boating conditions this morning over the Gulf
Stream waters will improve into the afternoon. However, south to
southeast winds 10-15kts will veer southwesterly and increase to
20-30kts this evening into the overnight hours. Occasional gusts
to gale force will be possible late tonight over the offshore
Volusia and Space Coast waters. But, the frequency and duration of
these gusts appears to fall below the threshold for a Gale
Warning. Thus, have issued Small Craft Advisories beginning this
evening for all of the Atlantic waters, but future shifts will
need to monitor the need for an upgrade through the day. Seas
4-6ft this morning becoming 4-5ft by late afternoon. Tonight, seas
building to 4-5ft nearshore and 5-7ft offshore. Isolated to
scattered showers will be possible along a cold front north of
Cape Canaveral late tonight into early Saturday morning.

Saturday-Tuesday...A cold front looks to pass through the local
Atlantic waters Saturday, with high pressure then building into
the Southeast through Monday, before a weak low pressure system
passes through Monday night into Tuesday. Northwest winds 20-25kts
will linger over the offshore waters through much of the day on
Saturday before improving. Winds are then forecast to fall below
15kts Saturday night, which will continue through the day on
Monday. Winds look to increase to around 20kts again Monday night
into Tuesday ahead of the weak low pressure system.

Seas up to 5-7ft well offshore early Saturday will diminish to
2-5ft by Saturday evening. Favorable seas then continue through
Monday night, before building to up to 7ft in the Gulf Stream on
Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers will continue southward
along the front through the day on Saturday. Scattered showers
then return Monday into Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 620 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Continued mainly VFR conditions into at least this evening.
Gradual increase of high cloudiness expected thru the day from the
NW. Veering winds later this morning and afternoon with E/SE
directional component; speeds increasing 10-15 kts and higher
gusts, becoming SRLY this evening and SSW late in the night ahead
of an approaching cold front. Speeds will decrease a little bit
late this afternoon and early evening, then ramp up late evening
and overnight 10-15 kts with higher gusts. LLVL winds (925mb)
increase 30-40 kts just off the deck overnight. Sky cover will
also increase (ceilings lowering), north --> south, overnight into
Sat morning. A thin line of gusty showers will approach the I-4
corridor after midnight and towards sunrise Sat morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  55  64  41 /   0  40  10   0
MCO  70  59  65  44 /   0  30  20   0
MLB  70  57  69  44 /   0  10  20   0
VRB  73  59  73  48 /   0   0  30   0
LEE  70  57  63  42 /   0  50  10   0
SFB  70  57  65  43 /   0  40  10   0
ORL  70  58  65  44 /   0  40  20   0
FPR  72  58  73  47 /   0   0  30   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ045-046-141-
     144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday
     for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM EST
     Saturday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Sedlock