139
FXUS62 KMLB 071735
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
135 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- Hot and very humid conditions with scattered daily lightning
  storms into early next week.

- Hazy skies this weekend due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches
  through the weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

This Weekend...High pressure ridging continues across the south-
central FL peninsula, with dominant SW/W flow "backing" along the
coast in the afternoon, but w/o much penetration inland due to the
dominant WRLY flow. Aloft, mid-level ridging expands across the Gulf
and across the southern FL peninsula. 500 mb temps remain
unimpressive at -6C to -7C with lapse rates modest at best. Going
with below seasonal PoP numbers this weekend (and well below NBM -
continue to blend in CONSALL values), 30pct this afternoon/evening
and perhaps as high as 40pct for north Brevard northward on Sun.
ISOLD to WDLY SCT convection may develop in the afternoon along the
(nearly) pinned ECSB and perhaps slightly higher chances as the WCSB
interacts with the ECSB and any other outflow boundaries late in the
day and early evening. Most of the activity will diminish or move
off of the coast by around mid-evening. Primary storm impacts remain
wind gusts of 30-40 mph (but up to 50 mph if storms can take
advantage of drier air aloft), occasional to frequent lightning
strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

Temps remain very warm with conditions humid as maxes realize L-
M90s, with peak heat indices of 98-103F. Overnight mins continue
in the L-M70s.

Mon-Fri...The surface ridge continues to push further seaward from
mid to late week, with the associated ridge axis drifting northward.
As such, the ECSB should be able to penetrate further inland from
Tue onward as the overall flow becomes ESE/SE nearly areawide and
daily sea breeze collisions will be well into the interior. W/SW
storm steering weakens Mon/Tue, then becomes light to variable on
Wed, then SERLY Thu/Fri. The WRLY flow in the mid-levels weakens
by Wed with weak mid-level ridging building back toward the FL
peninsula from the western Atlc. A few mid-level impulses will
traverse the north-central peninsula early in the period, but
generally remain north. Continue to undercut the absurd NBM PoP
numbers down to 50-60pct which, too, could also be generous. High
temps remain hot through at least Tue, before a more dominant
east coast sea breeze develops into mid-late week. Highs
remaining in the L-M90s early in the week, then U80s to L90s Wed-
Fri. Overnight mins continue in the L-M70s. Peak heat indices
98-105F remain forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Today-Wed...Continued generally favorable boating conditions
through mid-week next week, as high pressure ridging remains
across the south-central FL peninsula. The main threat will be
scattered offshore-moving showers and lightning storms each
afternoon and evening. South to southwesterly flow will back
southeasterly along the coast each afternoon and increase to 10-15
kts as the east coast sea breeze develops, but remains pinned
close to the coast through early next week. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Mainly VFR. There is a low probability of a shower or storm
developing near TIX/MLB this afternoon, but do not have enough
confidence to justify a mention of VCSH/VCTS in this TAF package.
Will monitor these sites and AMD if needed. Otherwise, dry
conditions are forecast at east central Florida terminals. A sea
breeze is beginning to develop along the Brevard and Treasure
Coast, but will struggle to make it very far inland. Southwest
winds around 10 kts at all terminals, shifting south-southeast at
coastal terminals behind the sea breeze. Light south-southwest
flow is forecast overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  94  72  93 /  10  40  10  40
MCO  75  94  74  94 /  10  30  10  50
MLB  74  91  74  89 /  10  30  20  40
VRB  72  92  74  90 /  10  20  10  40
LEE  75  93  75  94 /  10  30   0  40
SFB  75  94  74  95 /  10  30  10  50
ORL  76  94  75  94 /  10  30  10  50
FPR  72  91  73  89 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law