907
FXUS62 KMLB 142322
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
722 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
  the work week; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures this week with a low
  chance for showers Wednesday and Thursday

- Boating conditions deteriorate tonight into Wednesday and remain
  poor to hazardous through Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Tonight-Thursday...Low pressure well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast
will continue to push eastward into the open Atlantic as high
pressure continues to build down across the eastern United States.
Low level winds veer slightly to the N/NE and increase, with breezy
conditions developing along the coast each afternoon. Overall
airmass remains relatively dry, with PW values around 1-1.2 inches.
However, with elevated wind speeds as well as sufficient moisture in
the lower levels, isolated shower development will be possible.
These showers will develop across the waters and will be able to
push onshore along the coast from tonight through Thursday, but will
have to the potential to move a little farther inland during the
afternoon hours, especially on Wednesday. For now have limited rain
chances to around 20 percent. Temperatures will remain near to just
slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s across the interior and upper
60s to low 70s along the coast.

A high risk for dangerous rip currents will continue through
Thursday.

Friday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Behind Thursday`s
front, surface high pressure becomes well-established over the
eastern U.S. Friday and Saturday before gradually shifting toward
the Atlantic on Sunday into Monday. There remains some differences
in the model guidance aloft, regarding to southward extent and
strength of a trough that will be pushing eastward across the
eastern U.S. into late weekend/early next week. This feature will
gradually shift a weakening cold front toward Florida either Sunday
night or into Monday.

Prior to the late weekend/early next week front, conditions look to
stay mostly dry with onshore flow Friday-Saturday. Winds veer to the
south-southeast ahead of the front on Sunday with increasing
moisture from late Sunday afternoon through early Monday. Still much
uncertainty in overall rain chances for the end of the forecast
period, so have leaned toward NBM guidance at this time, with PoPs
remaining below mentionable levels Sunday and increasing to around
20 percent on Monday. By early next week, winds swing back around to
the north-northeast behind the front. A similar temperature forecast
to this week is in the cards with highs in the 80s and morning lows
in the 60s to low 70s. The warmest day of the next seven appears to
be Sunday, thanks to return flow and plenty of sunshine in between
partly cloudy skies. If you are planning to head to the beach, keep
in mind that the risk for life-threatening rip currents will remain
high Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

As high pressure builds down across the eastern U.S. through mid to
late week, a weak front will eventually push through the waters late
Thursday into Thursday night. N/NE winds increase through tomorrow,
up to 15-20 knots across the Volusia waters and 10-15 knots farther
south. Winds then increase to around 15-20 knots out of the
northeast across much all of the east central FL Atlantic waters
late Thursday into Thursday night behind the passing front. Seas
will gradually build as well up to 4-6 feet through tonight, and
small craft should exercise caution offshore. Hazardous boating
conditions will then gradually develop offshore Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday night, as seas build up to 7 feet.
Started a Small Craft Advisory at 2 PM Wednesday for the offshore
Volusia waters and then have it gradually expanding southward
across the offshore waters through Wednesday evening. Boating
conditions then look to remain hazardous across the gulf stream
through late week.

Boating conditions become a little more favorable into the weekend.
Winds veer to the east-southeast and diminish, with speeds less than
15 knots, and seas also gradually decrease to 4-5 feet into Saturday
afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions prevailing, with mostly dry conditions. However,
onshore flow is forecast to support a few showers along the coast,
mainly from early Wednesday through the afternoon. A few showers
may brush the coast overnight, but coverage is expected to remain
low. Inland, dry air should limit showers. So, while a few
persistent showers cannot be ruled out, there should be few enough
of them to negate a VCSH mention for interior sites. Northerly
winds overnight 4-6kts will veer NNE through the day and increase
to 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts in the afternoon, especially
along the coast from MLB northward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  80  68  82 /  20  20  10  10
MCO  66  83  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  68  82  70  83 /  20  20  20  10
VRB  68  83  70  83 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  64  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  66  82  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  66  82  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  67  83  70  83 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Leahy