280
FXUS62 KMLB 011805
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
205 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions expected outside of convection through the TAF
period. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast
today, with the greatest coverage occurring into mid afternoon
through this evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland.
Have included TEMPOs for TSRA with IFR/MVFR starting 19/21Z and
going for 3 hours. Convection will gradually decrease this
evening, with VCTS/VCSH ending around 03Z. Onshore flow this
afternoon with the inland moving sea breeze will become light and
variable once again overnight. Winds will then become northeast by
early morning with speeds around 5 KT.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A weak sfc trough analyzed over central FL combined with an
approaching upper disturbance will support a higher coverage of
rain/storms developing this afternoon and continuing into the
evening across much of EC FL. Early morning Cape sounding shows
increasing moisture from 12-18 hours ago with PWATS up to 2.16"
and this should tick up further toward 2.3" during the day. Weak
steering flow toward the E/NE along with training of cells will
promote heavy rainfall with potential for localized flooding
across portions of EC FL, including Orlando, the Space Coast and
northern portions of the Treasure coast. Prior to onset of
rain/storms, it will again be hot and humid with max temps
reaching near 90 with peak heat indices 100-106, unusually hot
for early October. Record highs appear a bit out of reach but will
come closest at LEE and VRB (both record highs are 93F).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Currently-Tonight... Light and variable winds are forecast to
become onshore into the afternoon and evening with the east coast
sea breeze at 5-10kts. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning
storms are forecast to develop into this afternoon and move
offshore into the late evening hours. The main hazards will be
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 40mph, and heavy
rainfall. Seas are forecast to build up to 1-3 ft.

Wednesday-Saturday (modified previous discussion)... Wind flow is
expected to become onshore into Wednesday afternoon and gradually
increase through late week. Wind speeds will remain relatively
light through Wednesday around 5-10 kts, with speeds gradually
increasing up to 10-15 knots from Thursday afternoon into Friday.
Seas will build up to 2-4 ft Wednesday, 3-5 ft Thursday and 4-5 ft
(with up to 6 ft offshore) Friday. Scattered to numerous showers
and lightning storms are forecast across the local Atlantic waters
Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers and storms forecast
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  74  88 /  50  40  10  30
MCO  75  88  75  89 /  50  60  20  50
MLB  74  87  76  87 /  60  60  40  50
VRB  73  89  75  89 /  50  60  50  60
LEE  75  88  74  89 /  30  50  10  40
SFB  74  87  74  89 /  50  60  10  40
ORL  76  88  76  89 /  50  60  20  50
FPR  74  88  74  88 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Watson