631
FXUS62 KMLB 081906
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
206 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions forecast tonight through
Tuesday, with poor boating conditions then lingering across the Gulf
Stream waters through midweek.

- Mostly dry conditions forecast through the remainder of the work
week, with temperatures remaining near to slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tonight-Tuesday...Front near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon will
shift farther southward into tonight, with drier/cooler air
continuing to gradually build in behind the boundary. Wind speeds
will remain somewhat elevated into tonight up to 10-15 mph as surge
of northerly flow behind the front continues. Winds then veer
slightly to the north-northeast into Tuesday and remain up to 10-15
mph. A few showers may still be possible, mainly near to south of
Melbourne through late this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise,
it is forecast to remain mostly dry across the area with cloud cover
slowly decreasing. Cooler temperatures forecast into tonight, with
lows in the 50s for much of the region, except mid to upper 40
northwest of I-4 and low to mid 60s holding on along the southern
Treasure Coast. Highs on Tuesday will be below normal, ranging from
the mid to upper 60s near to north of Orlando and in the low 70s
south.

Wednesday-Friday...High pressure builds down across the region as
another front moves into the southeast U.S. Wednesday and eventually
across the area early Thursday. High pressure then builds in behind
the weak front into late week. No precip is expected with the
frontal passage, with dry conditions forecast across central Florida
from mid to late week. Highs will remain near seasonable values in
the 70s, and overnight lows will be near to slightly below normal,
generally between the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure shifts eastward into the weekend,
and model guidance has begun to back off on showing another frontal
passage until Sunday night at this time. Temperatures look to remain
close to normal into the weekend, with highs continuing in the 70s
and lows in the 50s. The ECMWF has some coastal showers, mainly
along the Treasure Coast later in the weekend, but GFS remains
mostly dry. For now, the forecast leans toward the NBM, which only
has a low (20%) chance for showers along the Treasure Coast for
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tonight-Tuesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions forecast
across the waters through tonight and into Tuesday. Frontal boundary
near the Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon will continue
southward into tonight, with northerly winds across the waters
increasing to around 20 knots this evening, and remain elevated
through tonight. This will build seas to 6-8 feet. Will expand the
SCA to include the entire waters for tonight, and then the SCA
will continue across the Gulf Stream waters through Tuesday
afternoon as seas up to 7-8 feet linger even though winds out of
the N/NE decrease to 10-15 knots.

Wednesday-Saturday...High pressure will build down across the area
into midweek, with another front pushing into the southeast United
States. Winds will continue to decrease Wednesday, switching to the
west-southwest around 5-10 knots, but seas up to 6 feet will linger
over the Gulf Stream waters. Winds then become northwest around 10-
15 knots early Thursday morning as front moves through, decreasing
to 5-10 knots Thursday afternoon as seas fall to 3-5 feet. Another
area of high pressure then builds in behind the front late week and
winds diminish to 5-10 knots generally out of the N/NW as seas
continue to decrease to 2-3 feet. A little more uncertainty then
exists into the weekend, as models have backed off on another
frontal passage early in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1200 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

MCO IMPACT:
- IFR CIGs slowly lift into MVFR this afternoon.

Plentiful low-level moisture is stuck over Central FL behind a
cold front, keeping a layer of strato-cu in place. Guidance slowly
lifts the cloud bases out of IFR at most terminals through this
afternoon, but MVFR conds likely to linger into tonight. Other
than a few light showers, no sig wx is anticipated. NNW breezes up
to around 12 KT today, few gusts to 20 KT at the coast tonight.
Winds veer NE on Tuesday, up to 12G16 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  66  50  72 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  52  68  53  72 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  56  71  57  74 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  59  72  57  77 /  10  10   0  10
LEE  47  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  50  67  50  72 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  51  67  52  72 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  59  72  57  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil