808
FXUS62 KMLB 181054
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
654 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

- Incoming swells from Major Hurricane Erin will bring a HIGH
  risk of rip currents today and continuing through the week.

- Rough pounding surf as swells build Tue-Wed bringing minor
  beach and dune erosion with 5-8 foot breakers.

- Very dangerous boating conditions developing near inlets mid
  week especially during the outgoing tide.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Today...Isolated showers this morning esp near the coast. A NE
wind flow will develop and help push the sea breeze inland with
highest coverage over the interior late in the day into the eve.
With deep moisture remaining across the north assocd with a
dissipating trough, locally heavy rain will again be a threat with
one or more Flood Advisories possible. Max temps low 90s coast and
low-mid 90s interior with peak heat indices up to 106. Very long
period swells from major Hurricane Erin are starting to be
detected at NOAA buoy 41009 (20 mile buoy) in its spectral
density plot. A HIGH risk of rip currents will exist at the
beaches today even though the surf will look inviting.

Tue-Wed...Winds increase out of the north-northeast 10-20 mph with
some higher gusts up to 30 mph along the coast.  Subsidence
around this large and powerful hurricane will produce some drier
air and lower rain chances somewhat Tue. Temperatures generally
hold steady with highs in the L90s along the coast and L-M90s
inland. Low temps mostly in the M-U70s while more rural areas may
be able to touch the L70s.

As swells build, breaking waves of 5-8 feet will produce rough,
pounding surf with minor beach and dune erosion especially around
the times of high tide which will occur between 5-7 am/pm. Will
likely need a High surf advisory. The HIGH risk of rip currents
will persist all week. Heed the advise of lifeguards and beach
patrol and stay out of the ocean if so directed. The NHC forecast
brings the closest approach of Erin on Tue night when it will be
lifting northward, about 450 miles offshore.

Thu-Sun...Surface ridging builds south of the area as Erin
departs northeastward and out to sea. Developing light offshore
flow will favor precip chances across the eastern side of the
peninsula each afternoon/evening. However, there remains some
model disagreement in how fast moisture may return. The current
forecast favors scattered/numerous showers and storms (50-60%)
each day. Little change in temperatures, with highs in the L90s
along the coast and L-M90s across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Deteriorating boating conditions as Major Hurricane Erin turns
northward and passes by to the east. Current NHC forecast has its
closest approach Tue night about 450 miles east of Cape Canaveral.
Increasingly large swells will impact the local Atlc waters
through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory will go into effect
tonight for offshore Volusia and Brevard then expand to include
those nearshore waters and offshore Treasure coast. The nearshore
Treasure coast will eventually need an Advisory but development
of 7 ft seas there looks to hold off til Tue night. Peak seas will
be realized on Wed with 6-9 FT nearshore and up to 14 FT well
offshore. In addition, north to northeast winds will pick up
around 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Seas slowly subside into
late week as light offshore flow becomes established Thu/Fri as a
surface ridge axis builds south of the waters. This pattern
should favor offshore moving lightning storms late in the
day/evening.

In particular, very dangerous conditions will exist at inlets
especially during the outgoing tide cycle due to the incoming
large, long period swells produced by Erin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The current TAF forecast remains on track. Northeast winds
increasing to 8-10 kts will push the sea breeze inland this
afternoon. VCSH/VCTS remains mentioned along the coast from
16Z-19Z as the sea breeze passes. VCTS then spreads to inland
terminals around 18Z/19Z. Have added a TEMPO at LEE from 21/24Z
where confidence in TSRA impacts is highest. Trends continue to
favor convection diminishing or moving west of the interior
terminals by 00Z/01Z, potentially lingering longer into the
evening near LEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  78  90  77 /  60  20  40  20
MCO  94  77  93  77 /  70  20  50  10
MLB  91  79  91  78 /  50  20  40  20
VRB  93  77  92  75 /  50  20  50  20
LEE  93  77  92  76 /  70  20  40  10
SFB  93  77  92  77 /  70  20  40  10
ORL  93  77  93  77 /  70  20  50  10
FPR  93  75  92  74 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ550-552-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law