143
FXUS62 KMLB 112355
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
755 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Coastal flooding, rough surf, beach erosion, and a high risk of
  rip currents all continue along the east central Florida coast.
  Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged!

- Hazardous boating conditions continue across the local Atlantic
  waters, especially in the Volusia waters where a Gale Warning
  continues through 4 AM early Sunday Morning.

- Cooler 60s arrive tonight over much of east central Florida. Drier
  air filtering down the peninsula will allow for more sunshine
  and pleasant autumn weather during much of the coming week.

&&

.UPDATE... (Tonight)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The Wind Advisory will expire at 8 PM for coastal Volusia as the
pressure gradient loosens behind a low pressure system off the
coast of the Carolinas. Much of Florida remains in cyclonic flow
in the mid-levels as a trough and associated vort maxima pivot
overhead. This has led to rather unusual conditions for the
Sunshine State: low clouds along with patchy areas of rain and
drizzle.

Drier air begins its march down the peninsula tonight, eventually
ending the coastal showers and gradually lifting/scattering cloud
cover. Dew points are dropping into the 60s in many spots, and we
anticipate lows in the 60s for much of the district by daybreak.
We do expect to see more sunshine on Sunday, leading the way into
a more pleasant next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Low pressure that developed on our coast
yesterday has pushed into the adjacent Atlantic waters, with the
center well east of Jacksonville and Savannah, and continues to
lift northeastward, while high pressure builds across the
southeast behind the cold front which has pushed south of the
area. The pressure gradient ended up tightening enough for
northerly winds to pick up to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
across the northern counties (including the Orlando metro area)
and Brevard coast, and higher along the Volusia coast and Atlantic
waters at 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph at times. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for Coastal Volusia through 8 PM,
primarily for the barrier islands, but mainland areas can and have
seen winds occasionally surge as well. A Gale Warning has been
issued for the Volusia Atlantic water for frequent gusts to 34 kts
through early Sunday morning. Winds taper off farther south down
to 5-10 mph or so from the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee. Winds
ease across the area overnight. Drier air is filtering in behind
the front, but most of this is above 700mb, and below high
moisture continues to be pumped onshore, keeping skies very cloudy
and supporting scattered low-topped showers, with the highest
chances (30-40%) along the coast and decreasing slightly (20-30%)
inland. As far as deep convection goes, if the dry air aloft
wasn`t enough of a hurdle, model soundings show an inversion has
developed between 850mb and 700mb, likely due to the cloud cover
inhibiting mixing, knocking instability down to less than 1,000
J/kg MUCAPE except along the coast and a couple pockets across the
southern counties where there`s some daytime heating, which only
top out around 1,500 J/kg MUCAPE. Can`t completely rule out a
thunderstorm capable of occasional lightning strikes and wind
gusts to 45 mph, but the odds are highly against. Afternoon highs
top out in the U70s-M80s between the cloud cover and slightly
cooler air filtering in.

Sunday-Monday...The low pressure system continues to lift
northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, but could become a bit
messy as a small but potent shortwave/cutoff low swinging from the
Great Lake to New England merges with the trough/mid-level low
deepening over the southeast, evolving in to a deep, sharp trough
along the eastern seaboard one way or another. All models have
been stricken with developing secondary low pressure centers at
the surface (and none agreeing where), which is probably more
model behavior than anything, but the key takeaway is the surface
low is likely to become large and elongated. There has been a
relatively consistent signal for a surface trough and plume of
low-level moisture developing on the western side to swing back
down towards Florida almost like a backdoor front, but how strong
it becomes and how far it makes it is uncertain. Ultimately the
greatest impact is maybe an uptick in winds, which should be
otherwise light to moderate, increased cloud cover, and maybe a
few sprinkles and bit of humidity on what was supposed to be some
finally dry conditions. Else, temperatures a few degrees below
normal with afternoon highs in the L-M80s and morning lows in the
60s, and much less humidity. We`ll see some improvement at the
beaches as the onshore winds finally relent, but it could be a
while before we shake the high risk of rip currents as multiple
swell groups maraud the North Atlantic basin, and minor coastal
flooding during high tide could linger through early next week as
seas slowly subside while closing out this month`s set of high
astronomical tides. Uncertainty how the low will evolve doesn`t
help determining how long impacts will continue.

Tuesday-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Broad high
pressure is forecast to set up across the eastern US into next
week, gradually shifting southward towards Florida by late week.
Limited energy aloft paired with lower PWATs mean that the
extended forecast period looks to be fairly dry across east
central Florida, with rain chances anticipated to remain below 20%
for most of the area. North to northeast winds are forecast to
prevail through at least Thursday, veering to out of the east on
Friday. This onshore flow may lead to a slight return of moisture,
which could support some isolated shower development Friday into
Saturday. A great deal of uncertainty remains at this point, and
again, rain chances generally remain at or below 20%. Temperatures
are forecast to remain near normal through next week, with highs
generally in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Late next
week, lows may only fall into the low 70s along the coast.

Coastal hazards could persist through much of next week. Residents
and visitors are encouraged to continue monitoring the forecast
and always heed the advice of local beach safety officials.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Low pressure over the local Atlantic
waters continues to lift northeastward, but a tightening pressure
gradient has caused Nrly winds in the Volusia waters to increase
to 20-25 kts and are forecast to further increase to 25-30 kts
with frequent gusts to 35-40 kts, prompting a Gale Warning to be
issued for these waters through 4 AM Sunday morning. Seas have
increased to 10 ft at Buoy 41070 13 NM northeast of Ponce Inlet in
response to these increased winds, with seas forecast to reach up
to 13 ft in the Gulf Stream. To the south, Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect where N-NNW winds 20-25 kts are forecast in the
Space Coast waters and 15-20 kts in the Treasure Coast waters, and
seas build to 6-9 ft nearshore and 7-11 ft offshore. Isolated to
scattered showers, and a lightning storm can`t be ruled out.

Sunday-Wednesday...Boating conditions gradually improve as the low
lifts farther away and high pressure builds towards Florida, but
seas will remain poor to hazardous through Sunday and into Monday,
especially in the Gulf Stream, and are likely to remain
choppy/unfavorable through most of the week. Winds improve
quicker, becoming NW-NE at 10-15 kts across most of the waters by
Sunday afternoon, but remain 15-20 kts in the Volusia waters
through most of the day. Mostly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

MCO IMPACT:
- MVFR CIGs persisting through this evening.

DAB IMPACT:
- IFR to LIFR conditions with lingering rain/drizzle through mid-
  evening.

We still have some lingering rain, drizzle, and IFR/LIFR conds
for DAB, with low potential for this activity reaching TIX/MLB
early this evening. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs are the primary forecast
challenge tonight. While drier air is working in our direction,
the pattern remains favorable for low cloud persistence through at
least late evening (perhaps much of the night at DAB). Confidence
in improving conds remains low and will AMD as required. VFR is
expected on Sunday with winds remaining NW 5-12 KT, except turning
N/NNE late along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  80  64  82 /  40  10  10  10
MCO  64  83  65  85 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  66  82  67  83 /  20  10   0  10
VRB  66  83  66  84 /  20  10   0   0
LEE  62  82  63  84 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  64  82  64  85 /  20  10   0  10
ORL  64  82  65  84 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  66  84  66  84 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-347-447.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     FLZ141-347-447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for FLZ154-159-164-
     647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil