784
FXUS62 KMLB 181950
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

- An elevated fire risk exists across the interior today, and
  sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast to persist
  through at least early next week.

- Slow warming through the weekend and early next week, getting
  back into the 90s inland by mid-week.

- Very low rain chances through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Dry and gusty. There`s sufficient
moisture streaming onshore to support a healthy daytime cu field,
and maybe even a hint of light showers (a few 20 dbZ pixels)
showing up over the Treasure Coast Atlantic waters on KMLB radar,
but not enough to warrant mention in the forecast as it`s
unlikely anything will survive through the subsidence along the
coast from the sea breeze circulation, which is very apparent from
the clear skies just offshore on GOES satellite imagery. Breezy
and gusty conditions are developing this afternoon behind the
diffuse east coast sea breeze as it moves inland. As we lose
daytime heating, winds diminish becoming light overnight. Daytime
temperatures around normal, and overnight lows a bit above normal
from onshore flow.

The Weekend...Dry, gusty, and maybe a bit windy. The ridge axis
of stout surface high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard will
continue to extend across Central-North Florida. A frontal
boundary across the CONUS stalls along the northern flank of the
high, tightening the pressure gradient across Florida a bit more.
LAMP guidance is going gang busters calling for gusts up to 30
mph, especially along the southern coast, but this exceeds the
HREF 90th percentile so went with a compromise of gusts near HREF
75th percentile in the forecast at around 20-25 mph. Although this
increasing flow in the marine layer would typical whip up some
onshore moving showers, it`s so dry (PWATs less than the
climatological 25th percentile) that entrainment is going to kill
anything besides some cloud cover, and rain chances remain out of
the forecast. These dry conditions combined with the increasing
winds will continue sensitive fire weather conditions, possibly
becoming critical across the interior Saturday afternoon. Onshore
flow keeps daytime temperatures around normal, and overnight lows
a bit above normal.

Monday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Surface high
pressure across the western Atlantic broadens as a cold front
slides across the southeast U.S. Ridging holds in place aloft,
although gradually flattening. More agreement now exists within
global deterministic models, keeping dry conditions across east
central Florida on Tuesday. Therefore, no mentionable PoPs exist
within the midterm forecast. A warming trend continues with a few
areas of low 90s sprinkled across the interior on Monday become
more widespread across the interior Tuesday. Mid to upper 80s are
forecast in vicinity of I-95 each day while low 80s hang on along
the immediate coast. Low temperatures remain steady, mostly
ranging the low to mid 60s.

Wednesday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) An active sea
breeze pattern is forecast mid to late next week, but there is
wide variability in precip output among model runs. Went with a
blend of NBM and MOS guidance in the extended period which
results in a silent PoP (10%) across much of the area Wednesday
and Thursday. Warmer than normal temperatures continue each
afternoon with highs in the low 90s across the interior and mid to
upper 80s across the coastal counties. Morning temperatures
become mild, mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Rest of Today-Saturday...A bit breezy and choppy as the pressure
gradient across the local Atlantic waters tightens a little more
in response to a frontal boundary over the CONUS laying up along
side high pressure extending from the Atlantic seaboard across
Florida. Periods of poor boating conditions in the Gulf Stream
and nearshore the Treasure Coast waters are expected as easterly
winds increase to 15-20 kts. Across the rest of the waters,
easterly winds generally 10-15 kts, but could pick up to around 20
kts right along the coast in the afternoon and evening once the
sea breeze develops. Seas building to 3-5 ft. Mostly dry
conditions, but a brief sprinkle can`t be ruled out.

Sunday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Southeast winds
diminish to 10-15 kts Sunday and into Monday, further falling near
10 kts on Tuesday as the center of weakening high pressure slowly
builds towards Florida. Seas of 4-5 ft gradually subside,
becoming widely 3 ft by Tuesday. No precip is forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Mainly VFR is forecast with high pressure (~1030mb) over the W
Atlantic. ESE winds at 12-18kts with gusts to 18-25kts are expected
into this PM and into the late AM SAT. Light ESE/VRB winds at 4-8kts
are forecast overnight at the inland TAFs and KDAB with ESE winds at
around 10kts forecast at the coastal TAFs. There`s the potential (20-
30%) for MVFR CIGs at times at the coastal TAFs into SAT AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Sensitive to possibly critical fire weather conditions develop
each afternoon through at least mid next week. High pressure
extending over Florida will keep moisture well below normal,
though onshore flow will provide some offset, resulting in min RHs
of 35-45 pct across the interior. The sea breeze pattern will
remain active, producing gusty conditions from the late morning
through the early evening each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  80  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  63  84  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  68  80  68  81 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  66  80  66  82 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  63  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  84  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  66  80  66  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Fehling