108
FXUS62 KMLB 090953
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
453 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 437 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

- Deteriorating boating and beach conditions today; High Risk of
  rip currents this weekend and into next week

- Continued above normal temperatures well into next week; Highest
  rain chances on Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 437 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Today-Sun...Stout high pressure over the Great Lakes will push
E/SE and off the mid Atlc coast while building down the eastern
seaboard. The tightening pressure gradient will support increased
east wind flow with wind speeds 15 mph and gusty esp along the
coast today. Breezy/gusty winds will continue overnight and
Sunday. Above normal temperatures continue esp with overnight
lows holding 10-15 degrees above normal and highs both days in the
mid 80s interior and lower 80s immediate coast. Record highs
appear largely out of reach with the exception of Leesburg which
could equal its record of 86F from 2018. Forecast soundings
indicate just enough moisture present in the lowest 1 km to
produce shallow, isolated showers that approach the coast from
time to time. Some of this activity may push well inland during
the daytime (peak heating) hours, but no lightning is forecast.
The increased onshore flow will produce rough surf and a HIGH
risk of rip currents at the beaches this weekend.

Mon-Fri...A trough of low pressure currently just east of the
Bahamas will be steered westward around the southern periphery of
the Atlc high pressure, then NW-N across the Florida peninsula
Mon. NHC has been tracking this feature but gives it only a 10
percent chance for development. Nonetheless, moisture will
increase with this feature on Mon resulting in scattered showers
and isolated storms. With rain chances at 30-50 percent across
most of the area, Monday looks like the best chance for rain. A
weak cool front is forecast to push across the area Tue and absorb
this disturbance, shunting the deeper moisture east away from the
area. There should be lingering showers on Tue but prospect for
thunder looks too low to mention. A period of breezy/gusty north
to northeast winds is forecast Tue-Wed but max temperatures will
only drop a couple degrees holding in the lower 80s. Have kept Wed
dry but forecast model soundings show enough low level moisture to
produce isolated, fast-moving showers off the Atlc so may
eventually need to add a small PoP then.

A somewhat stronger cool front is forecast to push cleanly through
the area late Thu/Thu night. Temperatures Fri will lower only
back to near normal for this time of year as sfc wind flow quickly
develops an onshore component but dewpoints/RH will be noticeably
lower.

A High risk of rip currents is likely to persist through early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Reinforcing high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard
this weekend and tighten the pressure gradient, increasing winds
15-20 kt Sat and near 20 knots Sat night/Sun. Seas will respond,
building to 6 FT offshore late Sat/Sat eve reaching the nearshore
waters by Sun morning with 7-8 FT offshore. Have raised Small
Craft Advisories to begin this evening across most of the waters
while Small craft should exercise caution this afternoon as
conditions deteriorate. By Mon, the pressure gradient will ease
as a sfc trough lifts north across the area and brings scattered
showers and storms. A frontal boundary is forecast to cross the
area Tue with North to Northeast winds 10-15 knots Tue and 15-20
knots Wed building seas back to 5 FT nearshore and 7 FT offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

VFR conditions prevailing across all terminals through the
forecast period. VCSH ongoing near VRB and FPR. VCSH possible at
all sites after 15Z, ending around 00Z everywhere except from MLB
southward. Onshore flow persists around 5 knots, picking up to
around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots possible through the
afternoon and early evening. Winds become lighter after 00Z,
though gusty conditions along the coast cannot be ruled out during
the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  73  83  71 /  10  10  20  10
MCO  84  71  84  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLB  83  74  83  73 /  20  10  20  20
VRB  84  74  84  74 /  20  10  20  30
LEE  86  70  86  69 /  10   0  10   0
SFB  85  71  85  70 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  85  72  86  72 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  83  74  83  74 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM EST Sunday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 PM EST Sunday
     for AMZ552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Tollefsen