053
FXUS62 KMLB 041340
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

- High Risk of rip currents persists at area beaches today. Poor
  boating conditions forecast into the weekend.

- Temps remain warmer than normal through Monday, with near
  record highs in the upper 80s and low 90s forecast Sunday and
  Monday. Then turning cooler behind a cold front Tuesday through
  midweek.

- Mostly dry conditions will continue through this weekend, with
  next best chance of rain (up to 60-70%) with passing cold front
  Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

An area of high pressure remains situated across the western
Atlantic, with the ridge axis draped across Georgia. As a result,
southeast winds continue to prevail locally, remaining around 10
to 15 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. The stronger winds
and wind gusts will primarily be focused along the coast,
especially as the east coast sea breeze develops and enhances the
southeasterly flow. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are
forecast, with temperatures this afternoon anticipated to remain
above normal for this time of year. Highs climb into the upper 80s
to low 90s across the interior, staying in the mid 80s along the
coast. Conditions are forecast to remain dry across east central
Florida, with rain chances remaining below 10 percent. Overall,
the forecast remains on track with minor adjustments made to
incorporate the latest data and surface observations.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Today-Tonight...Deep layer ridge centered east of Florida over the
west Atlantic will continue to produce a southeasterly flow across
central Florida. East coast sea breeze enhancement will again lead
to breezy and gusty winds at the coast this afternoon, with wind
speeds 15-20 mph and gusts up to 25-30 mph. Across inland areas,
winds will reach 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Even drier air
builds in from the east-southeast today, with PW values falling
below an inch to around 0.8-0.9". This combined with the strong
ridge aloft and even less low level moisture to work with, should
lead to even lower potential for stray isolated shower development
like we saw yesterday. Will therefore keep any mentionable rain
chances out of the forecast. Skies will be mostly clear to partly
cloudy with highs similar to yesterday, ranging from the low to mid
80s at the coast to upper 80s/around 90 degrees inland. Mild
conditions continue into tonight as southeast winds continue around
5-10 mph overnight. Lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Saturday-Sunday...Deep layer ridge persists across the west Atlantic
and Florida through this weekend. However, center gradually shifts
farther eastward into Sunday, with ridge axis sliding south of the
area as a trough across the central U.S. shifts a cold front into
the southeast United States. Conditions remain mostly dry and
increasingly warm as SE winds Saturday veer to the S/SE on Sunday,
which will slow the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze.
Highs in the mid 80s at the coast and upper 80s/around 90 degrees
inland Saturday rise to the mid/upper 80s at the coast and low 90s
across the interior on Sunday. Highs on Sunday are forecast to
either near or reach daily record highs at Leesburg, Orlando,
Sanford and Daytona Beach. Overnight lows remain mild in the mid 60s
to low 70s.

Monday-Thursday...There still remains some model differences between
the GFS/ECMWF in timing and overall QPF amounts with the next cold
frontal passage. However, there is general agreement that this
boundary and highest rain chances will move through central Florida
Monday night into Tuesday, with PoPs increasing up to 60-70 percent
during this timeframe. Increasing W/SW wind fields may allow for a
few stronger storms with this system as it pushes through (primary
threat being strong wind gusts). However, instability looks to be
modest at best, especially with greatest rain chances during Monday
overnight and Tuesday morning, so currently potential for stronger
storm development remains low. A passing S/W trough and quick
development of onshore flow behind the front will keep low end rain
chances around 20-30 percent mainly along the coast through midweek.

In terms of temperatures, near record heat will continue into
Monday, as winds continue to veer to the S/SW delaying or
potentially preventing east coast sea breeze development. Highs are
forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s most locations. Then
behind the front, max temps fall into the 70s Tue-Thu, with
overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure centered east of Florida over the west
Atlantic will maintain southeasterly winds around 10-15 knots across
the waters today, increasing back up to 15-20 knots across the gulf
stream waters overnight tonight. A few developing showers over the
waters will again be possible, mainly into tonight. Seas will range
from 3-5 feet.

Saturday-Tuesday...Poor boating conditions generally expected into
the weekend and early next week. High pressure centered east of
Florida will gradually shift farther eastward into the weekend, with
ridge axis sliding south of the waters into Sunday. A moderate to
fresh breeze will continue out of the southeast on Saturday (around
15 knots) and out of the south-southeast Sunday (up to 15-20 knots).
Seas will be 3-4 feet on Saturday and 3-5 feet on Sunday. Mostly dry
conditions will prevail across the waters into the weekend.

Next best chance for showers and storms will be into early next week
with the passage of a cold front Monday night into Tuesday. A fresh
southerly breeze continues into Monday, becoming N/NW behind the
front Tuesday. Seas 3-4 feet Monday increase up to 3-5 feet Tuesday,
and potentially up to 6 feet over the Gulf Stream late Tuesday into
Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. No significant
changes from the 06Z package. SE winds become gusty and breezy and
gusty after 14Z, especially along the coast south of KDAB between
around 19Z and 01Z as the sea breeze further enhances onshore
flow as it pushes inland. Peak gusts inland and KDAB 20-25 kts,
and along the coast south of KDAB 25-30 kts. Winds diminish after
sunset to generally 5-10 kts inland, and 10-15 kts along the
coast. There is a very low chance for a brief onshore moving
-SHRA tonight, otherwise, dry conditions continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Southeasterly winds will continue across east central Florida
today and Saturday, becoming south-southeast Sunday and south-
southwest into Monday. Wind speeds will become breezy along the
coast each afternoon, with speeds 15-20 mph and gusts up to 25 to
30 mph. This onshore flow should keep min RH values above critical
values, especially along the coast, but are forecast to fall as
low as the upper 30s to low 40s across the far interior today and
Saturday, with these lower RH values covering more of the
interior, west of I-95, on Sunday and Monday. The breezy winds at
the coast and lower RH values across inland areas will continue
sensitive fire weather conditions through this weekend and early
next week. Next best chance for showers and storms (rain chances
up to 60-70 percent) will be with a passing cold front into
Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  67  85  68 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  90  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  83  71  84  68 /  10  10  10   0
VRB  84  70  84  68 /  10  10  10   0
LEE  90  68  90  68 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  89  67  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  90  68  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  84  70  84  68 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Haley