247
FXUS62 KMLB 300625
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
225 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms.
Isolated to scat`d showers and lightning storms are forecast to
develop into the afternoon over ECFL. VCSH begins at 17-20Z.
There is a limited potential for lightning. Light and variable
winds during the overnight/morning are forecast to increase into
the PM from the SSE at 5-10kts with the ECSB (except for KLEE).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Offshore flow will continue to push lingering showers and storms
from the peninsula out over the local Atlantic waters over the
next couple of hours, with activity expected to diminish before
midnight. Some lingering showers and a stray storm or two will
continue to be possible across the local Atlantic waters through
the remainder of the night, but otherwise, conditions are expected
to stay mostly dry across east central Florida. Winds will become
light and variable, with skies becoming mostly clear late
tonight. Overnight lows remain slightly above normal in the mid
70s. The forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot and humid conditions forecast to continue today. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for Okeechobee County and the Treasure   Coast.

- Numerous showers and scattered storms with locally heavy rainfall
possible today, especially across the northern half of east central
Florida.

- Scattered showers and storms will continue each afternoon and
evening through the work week.

Tonight...Tonight, southwest winds will become light overnight,
with skies remaining partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers
and isolated lightning storms will be possible through the
evening, with the greatest potential occurring from Cape Canaveral
northward. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions across land areas
through the overnight hours. Warm and muggy tonight, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge aloft will
continue to expand westward across each central Florida through
early to midweek, with the surface ridge axis over the west Atlantic
gradually lifting back north across the area and weakening. Low
level offshore flow will continue to weaken into Monday, with flow
eventually becoming onshore into Wednesday. PW values decrease a
bit, especially across southern portions of east central FL, which
when combined with the expanding mid level ridge should lead to a
slight decrease in overall shower and storm coverage. Sea breeze
will be able to move a little more inland each day, with isolated to
scattered showers and storms developing along and ahead of this
boundary into the afternoon. Rain chances will generally range
around 30-50 percent each day.

Ridge aloft will also keep above normal temps in the forecast
through early in the week, with highs in the low 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Humid conditions will continue to produce peak heat index
values of 102-107F each afternoon. As onshore flow develops by
midweek, a faster inland moving sea breeze should keep highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Overnight lows will continue in the
mid 70s for most locations.

Thursday-Saturday...(Previous Discussion) Large area of high
pressure shifts eastward toward the eastern U.S. coast toward late
week, with onshore flow prevailing and increasing slightly. Models
continue to indicate an area of low pressure gradually lifting
northward out of the western Carribean into the Gulf of Mexico later
in the week. Unfortunately, there is the potential for tropical
cyclone development with the system, up to 50 percent over the next
7 days from the latest Tropical Weather Outlook. However, it is too
early to tell what impacts if any may occur to east central FL from
this system. For now, residents and visitors should continue to
closely monitor the forecast for updates as we head into the work
week. Regardless of development, deeper moisture is forecast to lift
northward across the area into late week and early weekend, which
will lead to a gradual rise in rain chances. Onshore flow should
keep greatest afternoon/evening storm coverage across inland areas.
Highs will be a little closer to normal, generally in the upper 80s,
and overnight conditions will continue to be warm and muggy, with
lows in the 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  91  74 /  30  20  50  40
MCO  94  77  92  75 /  30  20  60  40
MLB  92  77  90  75 /  20  20  40  30
VRB  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  20  20
LEE  92  76  91  75 /  30  10  60  40
SFB  93  76  91  74 /  30  20  60  40
ORL  94  78  92  76 /  30  20  60  40
FPR  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Fehling