950
FXUS62 KMLB 302356
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
756 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

- High coverage of afternoon and evening showers and lightning
  storms each day, especially Wednesday onward. Slow-moving storms
  will be capable of wind gusts to around 50 mph, frequent
  lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall, leading to minor
  flooding.

- Humid conditions will continue to lead to apparent temperatures
  in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  at least mid week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Current-Tonight...Warm and humid conditions again this afternoon
with maxes topping out in the U80s to near 90F with peak heat
indices in the M-U90s for most. Clouds and early convective
initiation will keep numbers in check (lower than recent days). The
Atlc surface ridge axis continues across the central FL peninsula,
while aloft, general troughiness persists across the FL peninsula
keeping conditions unsettled. PWATs range from 1.70-2.10 inches with
500 mb temps hovering around -8C.

Expecting fairly high coverage (50-70pct) of convection, again, this
afternoon/evening. The I-4 corridor and portions of north Brevard
and Osceola counties have already observed early activity. Showers
and storms will begin to focus further southward toward Lake
Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast late today. Expect coverage and
intensity to increase thru late afternoon and early evening. Storm
steering flow remains light and generally toward the N/NE, but any
stronger boundary collisions will allow cell movement to be erratic
at times. A few strong storms will be possible with primary storm
impacts of frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, gusty winds
locally to 50 mph, small hail, and torrential downpours leading to
minor/nuisance flooding potential. Quick accumulations of 1-3 inches
locally will be possible in a 60-90-minute period or from multiple
rounds. This could exacerbate any ongoing minor flooding concerns
and/or create new ones, as daily rainfall amounts add up. Activity
will linger during the evening gradually dissipating late. Clouds
thin overnight with mostly drier, but muggy conditions.

Winds will become light SW/W (perhaps variable) later tonight with
overnight mins generally L-M70s, perhaps M-U70s for barrier islands.

Tue-Thu...Previous Modified...Weak mid-upper level troughing
initially over the FL peninsula finally pushes east of the area as
additional shortwave troughing slides southward into the Deep South
to reinforce. This will act to weaken the surface ridge axis.
Moisture surges further on Wed ahead of a weakening front dropping
into the southeast U.S. and Gulf Coast states. Storm steering flow
will veer more SWRLY and become stronger, resulting in the (W/E
coast) sea breeze collision across the eastern half of the
peninsula. Rain chances jump back to well above normal the later
half of the week. While a few stronger storms will be possible, the
primary concern will be increasingly daily rounds of heavy
downpours. Seasonable high temperatures in the U80s to L90s are
forecast to continue, with peak heat indices in the U90s to L100s,
and Minor to Moderate HeatRisk impacts.

Fri-Mon...Previous Modified...Unsettled conditions with high rain
chances expected to continue as the nearly stalled front (to the
north) accompanied by copious moisture sags into the southeast U.S.
and towards Florida. While there is potential for a tropical or
subtropical system to form along the frontal boundary by the
weekend, which the National Hurricane Center is monitoring and
currently has a low (20%) chance of development over the next 7
days; heavy rainfall will be the primary concern regardless of
development. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will be possible
each day, increasing/compounding concerns for flooding. On the plus
side, high cloud coverage will result in near to slightly below
normal temperatures, with afternoon highs in the U80s to around 90F,
and peak heat indices in the M90s to around 100F.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

High coverage of afternoon/evening showers and lightning storms
will continue through the upcoming week. Some of this activity
will be capable of moving across the intracoastal and near shore
Atlc waters, particularly into the late afternoon and evening
hours, while overnight activity will remain offshore. A few storms
could be strong, capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. S/SW prevailing winds,
remaining less than 15 kts. However, winds become SE along the
coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes slowly
inland. Seas 1-3 ft, but locally higher invof storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 756 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

After an earlier start to showers and isolated storms today and
some cloudier conditions, convection was fairly isolated into the
afternoon. However, higher coverage of showers and storms across
south FL has produced an outflow boundary that is moving quickly
northward across central FL this evening. This will be capable of
producing additional scattered showers and storms through late
evening, mainly inland, as it lifts toward the Orlando Metro area.
Have VCTS included from 01/02Z-05Z for KISM/KMCO/KSFB/KTIX, and
VCTS through 04Z at KMLB, with a Tempo group for 3SM TSRA for the
next hour as storms are already developing near the terminal.
Will continue to monitor trends and may have to include some
additional Tempo groups for the Orlando metro area for SHRA/TSRA
this evening.

Into tomorrow, high coverage of showers and storms forecast, and
again have VCTS at all terminals starting around 18-20Z. Tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any of this activity, but
timing is still a little uncertain, so have kept them out of the
TAFs for this package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  90  73  89 /  30  70  30  70
MCO  72  91  74  88 /  30  70  30  70
MLB  73  89  73  90 /  40  70  40  70
VRB  69  90  70  91 /  40  70  40  70
LEE  73  88  74  87 /  30  70  30  70
SFB  73  91  73  89 /  30  70  30  70
ORL  73  91  75  89 /  30  70  30  70
FPR  70  88  70  90 /  40  70  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Weitlich