814
FXUS62 KMLB 200235
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1035 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

An earlier start to diurnal convection today over land has led to
an earlier end. However, there are a few convergent cloud lines
seen on KMLB radar offshore Brevard and the Treasure coast as
well which should become more active with convection overnight.
Most of this convection should stay over the Atlc but will keep a
small PoP along the coast from the Cape southward into early
overnight. Light and variable winds will become light N/NW toward
morning with min temps in the low to mid 70s. Skies will become
mostly clear and there is a small chance for patchy fog in
normally fog prone areas, including where heavy rains fell today
(St Lucie county) and across north Lake/NW Volusia counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 820 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conds forecast to prevail for most of the TAF period. Outflow
boundary will push westward into Lake county and may spark addl
SHRA, possibly a TSRA through 03Z. Have removed all TEMPO groups
and kept VCSH at LEE/MCO/ISM/MLB for brief shower impacts. There
is some signal for patchy fog/stratus late tonight at LEE but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. Light and
variable winds tonight will become NE-E up to 10 knots on Fri.
Have inserted VCTS for VRB-SUA Fri aftn for sea breeze convection
with decreasing coverage to the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Now-Tonight...Seas will continue to fall into tonight, around 2-4
ft, as onshore flow becomes light and variable through daybreak
Friday. Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue to
push over the waters through the evening and may last through the
early overnight period. Locally higher wind gusts and seas are
possible as a result of this activity.

Friday-Monday...Generally favorable conditions are forecast
through the weekend with poor boating conditions potentially
returning by Sunday or early next week. Persistent northeasterly
winds will increase each day with the highest gusts 15-20 kt in
the afternoon and evening hours. Seas 2-3 ft thru Saturday,
increasing to 3-5 ft Sunday-Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  88  74  88 /  10  20  10  30
MCO  74  90  74  90 /  30  20   0  30
MLB  74  88  74  88 /  30  30  10  20
VRB  73  89  74  89 /  30  40  10  20
LEE  74  90  73  90 /  20  20   0  20
SFB  73  89  73  89 /  20  20   0  30
ORL  74  90  74  90 /  30  20   0  30
FPR  72  88  73  89 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly