111
FXUS62 KMLB 081055
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
655 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through this week. The main storm
  hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy
  rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise,
  frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph will
  also be possible.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices
  in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches again
  today. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim
  alone.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current-Wednesday...Weak frontal boundary will remain in proximity
to central FL into early Wed, then lift back northward. Light
onshore flow develops today with early formation of a diffuse sea
breeze and penetration well inland for a change. An eventual late
day/evening collision should occur across WCFL today, and the
collision on Wed will also occur across the interior. PWATs remain
very high, well in excess of 2". Steering flow will be weak and
erratic today and much of the same into Wed. PoPs today 30-50%
along the coast and 50-70% into the interior - highest may be
along the Kissimmee River. Probably expecting highest PoPs on Wed
across the eastern/central FL peninsula with 50-70% PoPs
areawide. Aloft, we have weak troughing thru mid-week aiding
convection allowing for continued higher chances. Primary storm
impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds locally
40-50 mph, and torrential downpours capable of 2-4" in a
relatively short period (esp interior) promoting minor/nuisance
flooding in repeated rounds.

Max temps near climo in the U80s/L90s. Humid overnight with mins in
the 70s. Peak heat indices in the U90s to L100s ahead of daily
storms.

Thu-Mon...Subtle shortwave troughing aloft will traverse central FL
aiding mostly diurnal convection thru the period. At the surface,
with the former trough lifting north moisture will surge across the
region into the weekend. Weak ridging noses back toward and across
the central FL peninsula thru late work-week and points further
north thru the weekend. The pressure pattern remains fairly weak and
expect daily sea breeze formation and push inland. PWAT values
remain in excess of 2" into Sun, then perhaps some slightly drier
air late Sun into Mon. Generally light SW storm steering Thu-Sat
becoming light SERLY Sat night-Mon. Still expect occasional
erratic storm motions surrounding stronger late day boundary
collisions. Fairly high PoP numbers (60-70%) continue. Primary
storm impacts continue to revolve around locally heavy rainfall.
Near seasonal temps for highs (U80s-L90s) with lows in the 70s and
conditions remaining humid. Peak heat indices continue in the
U90s to M100s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Thru Saturday...A weak frontal boundary has dipped into central FL
and will remain nearby into mid-week before advancing back north. A
fairly weak pressure gradient remains in place though the Atlc
surface ridge will try to nudge back into the local waters late
Thu and Friday, then further north into the weekend. Variable
winds early today will transition onshore thru the morning and
afternoon along the coast as the sea breeze pushes well inland for
a change. Winds will continue to become onshore 10-12 kts each
afternoon along the coast into the extended with sea breeze
formation and march inland. Moisture remains high thru the period
and expect ISOLD-SCT showers/lightning storms to remain in the
forecast becoming occasionally scattered to numerous in coverage.
Occasional diurnal offshore-moving storms affecting the
intracoastal/near shore waters will also continue. A few strong
storms, are possible with primary impacts of frequent lightning,
gusty winds in excess of 40 kts, and heavy downpours. Overnight
activity mostly confined to the Gulf Stream, where a few strong
storms will remain possible with frequent lightning/gusty winds.
Seas locally higher invof storms. Seas build 2-4 ft during today,
highest offshore/Cape northward and this trend continues
southward thru Wed 3-5 ft, then gradually subsiding Wed night into
the weekend back toward 2-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Onshore-moving showers and storms early this morning will
continue inland, increasing in coverage across the interior late
morning into this afternoon. Have added PROB30s to all sites
except LEE due to lower confidence in exact placement of coverage.
The PROB30s are generally between 15-19Z along the coast and
18-22Z across MCO, ISM, and SFB. VCTS has the potential to last
through 02Z across the interior, with VCSH along the coast through
03Z. Light and variable winds return overnight, picking up out of
the SE after 14Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  77  89  76 /  40  30  50  10
MCO  90  76  91  75 /  60  20  70  10
MLB  89  78  90  78 /  40  20  50  10
VRB  88  76  89  76 /  50  30  50  10
LEE  90  76  91  76 /  70  40  60  10
SFB  90  76  91  76 /  60  20  70  10
ORL  90  76  90  76 /  60  20  70  10
FPR  88  75  89  76 /  50  30  50  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen