020
FXUS62 KMLB 111826
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
226 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

- Temperatures trending hotter each day with heat indices
  approaching 102 to 107+ degrees, especially later in the week

- Near normal rain and storm chances, mainly along the sea breeze,
  with higher coverage focused across the interior

- A moderate risk of rip currents will continue at area beaches
  through at least midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Now-Tonight...Under plenty of sunshine so far today, temperatures
have climbed into the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices ranging
the upper 90s to mid 100s (as of 1 PM). A broad area of low pressure
is continuing westward across the Gulf as high pressure builds from
the western Atlantic toward central Florida. Streaks of fair weather
cumulus are seen on GOES satellite imagery with cumulus congestus
forming along the sea breeze from Melbourne southward. It is there,
from southern Brevard to Martin/Okeechobee counties, that a few
quick-hitting showers have developed and are moving west-
northwestward. These showers are so far not remaining organized
and falling apart as quickly as they form.

CAM guidance is in general agreement that the overall coverage of
rain through the evening will be isolated to scattered at best, with
the greatest potential for rain focused near and mainly west of the
Orlando metro area and north of the I-4 corridor. Forecast soundings
from the HRRR indicate steep low-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) present
as efficient surface heating takes place. As a result, DCAPE is
rising to near 1000 J/kg. Rather dry soundings are noted, mainly
above 800mb, with PW ranging from 1.6" (south) to 1.9" (north)
across most of the area (lowest across Treasure Coast). So while
slightly more moisture exists across northern and western portions
of the area, there is still uncertainty regarding updraft growth
and maintenance in support of storm development this afternoon.
A 40-50% chance for rain seems reasonable from Orlando westward
through early evening (up to 60% Leesburg to Lady Lake). Rain
chances quickly taper off after 8-9 PM with clearer conditions and
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 70s overnight.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night...Mid level ridging builds atop onshore flow
Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient continues to weaken.
Similar to today, plenty of morning and midday sunshine should
quickly warm us up into the upper 80s to low 90s by early afternoon.
The east coast breeze is forecast to develop late in the morning,
first across the Treasure Coast, becoming more defined north of the
Cape by early to mid afternoon. Southeast winds may gust 15-20 mph
along the coast, mainly from the Cape southward.

Rain chances will again be largely focused along the developing sea
breeze and CAM guidance is similar in appearance to today,
reflecting a low to medium chance (40-50%) of showers and storms
through mid afternoon. Deeper moisture is modeled over the area by
late afternoon, so slightly greater coverage of scattered convection
is possible, primarily along and west of the St. Johns River. Brief
downpours will be the main concern, though a more organized storm or
two could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Drier weather
resumes after 9-10 PM with temperatures settling back into the 70s.

Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...High pressure over the
western Atlantic will continue to build westward over the Florida
peninsula through the period, while slowly shifting northward.
Locally, E/SE winds will dominate each day before backing offshore
each night. The pressure gradient will remain weak, with wind
speeds generally 10 mph or less. Sufficient moisture will be in
place with PW values around 1.8-2.0", but could increase to over
2" by the weekend. This will support a medium (40-60 percent)
chance for rain and storms each afternoon and evening, with the
greatest coverage occurring across the interior.

The warming trend will continue as rain chances remain closer to
normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will reach the low to
mid 90s each day. This forecast leans more heavily on the NBM 75th
percentile, especially across the interior. These temperatures,
coupled with higher humidity, will produce peak heat indices of 102-
107 degrees. The potential exists for isolated higher values, which
may eclipse Heat Advisory levels, especially across the northern
interior. Overnight conditions will remain warm and muggy with lows
generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Favorable boating conditions are forecast through most of this week.
Southeast winds around 10-15 kt through tonight decrease to around
10 kt or less through the remainder of the week as the pressure
gradient weakens over the local waters. Seas 2-3 ft (up to 4 ft well
offshore through tonight) will remain in place through at least
Friday. Near normal rain and lightning storm chances are forecast
(30-50 percent), with the highest coverage focused over inland
portions of the FL Peninsula. However, any stronger storm that
occurs over the waters will be capable of gusty winds, lightning
strikes, and briefly higher seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VCSH at all terminals for this afternoon as the ECSB slowly moves
inland. Confidence in coverage of storms has been decreasing
through this morning and early afternoon, so opted to remove
TEMPOs from interior sites and switch to PROB30 for TSRA and
reduced VIS and CIGs between 21-24Z. Activity diminishes after
00Z, with light SE winds overnight strengthening once again to 5
to 10 knots after 14Z tomorrow morning. VCSH possible along the
coast after 16Z as the ECSB develops and moves inland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  91  76  92 /  20  60  10  50
MCO  76  93  76  95 /  20  70  20  60
MLB  78  91  77  92 /  20  50  10  40
VRB  76  92  75  93 /  20  50  10  40
LEE  77  93  77  93 /  30  60  20  60
SFB  77  93  76  95 /  20  60  10  60
ORL  77  93  77  95 /  20  70  20  60
FPR  75  92  74  92 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen