585
FXUS62 KMLB 221929
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
229 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

- Cold and breezy today, with continued wind chills in the 30s
  from Orlando northward. Hazardous beach and boating conditions
  persist.

- Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through
  Thursday evening, especially along the coast.


- Even colder temperatures are expected late this week. By
  Saturday morning, areas of frost and bitter wind chills in the
  mid 20s to mid 30s, especially inland and north of Orlando. A
  warming trend begins Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Rest of Today-Thursday...High coverage of clouds and breezy to
windy northerly winds have kept temperatures in the 40s from
Melbourne northward and in the lower 50s across the south today.
As of 2PM, the Orlando International Airport was still below the
record cool high temperature for the date. This will be watched
through the afternoon, though daytime heating is now diminishing.
While showers have largely tapered off, isolated to scattered
showers will remain possible through Thursday evening, as the
front continues to stall over the Straits of Florida. Winds are
forecast to become northeasterly overnight along the coast,
allowing for showers to drift onshore through the morning hours.
PoPs 20-30%, mainly south and east of Orlando.

The pressure gradient continues to slacken. However, breezy to
windy conditions persist, especially along the coast, this
afternoon. Winds 15-20mph this afternoon will become 10-15mph
overnight, where they will remain into Thursday. Winds may be
breezy at times again along the coast, though gusts are not
forecast to reach speeds as high as were observed today (gusts up
to 30-35mph).

Temperatures today have been well below forecast, with wind chills
still in the 30s for areas along and north of the I-4 corridor as
of 2:30pm. Thus, have gone slightly below guidance for
temperatures overnight tonight, blending in some of the 10th
percentile NBM. This has made for lows forecast in the upper 30s
to lower 40s for the normally colder spots, with increasingly
onshore winds keeping areas to the south in the mid to upper 40s.
Lighter winds will help to moderate wind chill values. However,
wind chills in the 30s are still forecast for most of the area,
with the exception of the Space and Treasure Coasts.

Friday-Saturday (modified previous)...One more wave of colder air
looks to be on the way before we start to "thaw" out. Clouds are
forecast to slowly scour out on Friday as high pressure drifts
toward the area. Well- below-normal high temps are forecast on
Friday (50s). Guidance continues to trend colder on Saturday
morning. We stayed just above statistical guidance yet again, but
that is not much of a consolation. Widespread low/mid 30s are
forecast over the interior and all of Volusia County, moderating
slightly into the upper 30s to mid 40s along the coast from
Melbourne southward. Areas of frost have been included over a
large chunk of the district.

These may be the coldest temps of the season and sensitive
vegetation will likely need some protection. In fact, there are
increasing chances for a light freeze generally north of Orlando.
Still feel there is some chance for these readings to increase a
bit in subsequent forecasts, particularly considering winds are
not forecast to completely relax. Unfortunately, this would result
in wind chills in the upper 20s to low 30s for many locales.
Saturday looks bright and chilly with temps still 8-10 degrees
below normal.

Sunday-Wednesday (previous)...From late this weekend through
midweek, at least medium confidence remains in our forecast.
21/12Z cluster analysis shows a classic Rex Block developing along
the West Coast as the Polar Vortex remains close to Hudson Bay.
The anomalous cold air entrenched over much of the nation is
projected to erode, especially over the Southeast. Polar jet
disturbances should remain much farther north, limiting cold
frontal passages through next Wednesday (1/29) or Thursday (1/30).

This pattern change may have some staying power, at least over
Florida, into the first days of February. The MJO is expected to
swing from phase 3 into 4 or the null phase. NAO/AO blocking appears
non-existent, and the EPO is forecast to become positive, an
indication that milder Pacific air should enter the U.S. Deeper into
early February, long-range modeling looks very similar to La Nina
analogs. The CPC two-week outlook slightly favors above-normal
temperatures over Florida. Quiet weather is forecast as any
significant weather makers hold to our northwest. After one last
cold morning on Sunday (upper 30s north of Orlando), statistical
guidance supports seasonable temperatures through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Gale-force wind gusts have diminished in frequency and the Gale
Warning will be replaced by Small Craft Advisories at 4PM.
Regardless, hazardous to dangerous boating conditions continue.
Northerly winds will take on a northeasterly component overnight,
but remain around 15 to 20kts through this evening, before
becoming 10-15kts tonight. North to northwesterly winds will then
return to 15-20kts Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Seas
up to 8 to 12 feet are forecast to become 6-8ft by Thursday night.
Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through
Thursday night.

Low pressure developing near the Bahamas will keep boating
conditions poor to hazardous through late week, before improving
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1257 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Overcast stratus deck blankets the entire FL peninsula this
afternoon, with IFR ceilings at nearly all terminals. A band of
light to moderate showers that impacted the area over the last 24
hours has shifted south and offshore, leaving only light returns
from VRB to SUA. A surge of northerly winds has brought gusts over
30 knots to coastal sites this afternoon, but should return to 20-25
knots by 21-22Z. Winds will remain brisk through the TAF period,
with gusts 15-20 knots again tomorrow. Little break in the BKN/OVC
deck, with IFR persisting through 18Z tomorrow. Showers will return
with highest confidence at the coast after 12-14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Friday... RH minima fall to 40-45% by afternoon northwest of I-4,
amid northwest winds of 5-15 mph. Otherwise, RH values remain
above critical thresholds each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  42  52  36  54 /  10  50  20   0
MCO  43  51  39  54 /  10  50  20   0
MLB  48  57  41  57 /  30  60  30  10
VRB  51  61  46  60 /  30  60  30  10
LEE  38  49  34  54 /  10  30  10   0
SFB  42  51  37  55 /  10  50  20   0
ORL  43  51  37  55 /  10  50  20   0
FPR  49  61  45  59 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Schaper