835
FXUS62 KMLB 191341
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
941 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- High Risk of rip currents today at area beaches.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions and little to no precipitation
  chances are forecast to persist through next week.

- Warming through the weekend and early next week, with highs in
  the 90s over the interior by mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Forecast remains on track with no changes needed.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure consolidates over the
western Atlantic today, with upper level ridging building into the
local area. Meanwhile, the ridge axis settles across Georgia and
South Carolina. Locally, onshore flow will continue, enhancing
slightly today as the high pressure strengthens to the north.
Winds 10-15 mph today across most of east central Florida will
increase to 15-20 mph this afternoon along the coast as the sea
breeze develops. This feature will lead to wind gusts 20-25 mph as
it moves inland through the afternoon hours. Dry conditions are
forecast to continue, which, combined with breezy winds, will
cause sensitive fire weather conditions to persist (see below
section for more details). Winds will decrease this evening into
tonight, though could remain up to 5-10 mph along the coast. Highs
this afternoon in the low to mid-80s, with overnight lows in the
60s.

Sunday-Next Week...High pressure continues over the western
Atlantic through at least mid-week, while slowly drifting towards
the Florida peninsula. Dry conditions persist, as do fire weather
concerns. Daily sea breezes will enhance onshore flow in the
afternoons. However, by Tuesday, even onshore flow will struggle
to provide relief from increasing temperatures. Heat looks to
become an increasing concern, as temperatures become above normal.
Highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s west of Orlando by
Sunday. Then, lower 90s are expected early next week for most of
the interior, with mid-80s along the coast. A few record highs
could be threatened, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight
lows in the 60s.

By late week, the ridge manages to repel any frontal passages.
However, it is forecast to be weakened by a passing upper level
shortwave mid-week, shifting the surface high northeastward away
from the local area. Generally dry conditions persist, though a
slight chance (~20%) for showers returns to the forecast late week
into the weekend along and offshore from the Treasure Coast, with
the ridge axis once again north of the area. Hot afternoon highs
in the mid-80s to lower 90s are expected to continue into next
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Poor boating conditions over the Gulf Stream waters south of Cape
Canaveral today and tonight, due to easterly winds up to 15-20
kts. Small craft should exercise caution over the Treasure Coast
and offshore Brevard County waters. East to southeast winds 10-15
kts are forecast to continue through at least mid-week next week.
Seas 4-5 ft today into tonight diminishing to 3-4 ft through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR through the period. East winds around 12-15 kts by mid
morning increase to 15-20 kts into the afternoon with peak gusts
around 25-28 kts. Gusts diminish by 00Z at most terminals while
sustained winds slowly settle to 5-10 kts overnight. No
mentionable precip.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Very sensitive fire weather continues, with near Red Flag
conditions possible over the interior this afternoon. Onshore
flow will persist through the weekend, becoming breezy and gusty
in the afternoons as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. No
precipitation forecast to relieve continued drying of fuels.
Highest wind speeds are expected to occur near the coast, where
min RH is forecast above critical levels. Winds 10-15 mph west of
I-95 and 15-20 mph along the coast this afternoon, with gusts
20-25mph. Min RH between 35-45% over the interior and 45-50% along
the coast. Will need to monitor Lake County today, as this will
be the most sensitive area this afternoon, especially if winds
overperform.

Sunday, southeast winds relax slightly, but remain 10-15 mph, with gusts
up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Min RH continues between 35-45% over the
interior counties and 45-55% for coastal areas. Very good to excellent
dispersion each day. Very similar conditions look to continue through
early next week, with increasing heat concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  85  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  80  68  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  80  66  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  87  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  85  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  85  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  80  66  83  66 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Law