026
FXUS62 KMLB 092009
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
409 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

- Warmer today with a low chance (20-30%) of showers north of
  Orlando.

- A high chance for rain (peaking at 70%) with isolated storms
  late Sunday night through Monday with a few strong storms south
  of Orlando Monday. Turning Windy behind the cold front Monday
  afternoon.

- Winds and seas turn hazardous to dangerous Monday into Tuesday
  around deepening low pressure off the Carolina coast. Gusts to
  Gale Force offshore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight... A surface low will develop along a stalled
frontal boundary draped across the Deep South and Gulf Coast today
before deepening and shifting eastward across the FL panhandle
tonight. Locally, expect W/SW winds this afternoon with above normal
temperatures as ECFL remains in the warm sector of the front to our
north. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, except lower
80s across Volusia. While most areas will remain dry this afternoon,
have maintained the 20-30 percent chance of rain this afternoon from
the metro Orlando area northward as showers from the front to our
north are forecast to push into the local area. Lightning storms are
not forecast for this afternoon. However, forecast soundings shows
that, given the right environment, a lightning strike or two can not
be ruled out. Confidence remains low, so have kept lightning out of
the forecast for today at this time. Rain chances increase across
the north tonight, mainly from Titusville to Kissimmee northward.
Peak rain chances 40-50 percent will be across Lake and Volusia
counties near sunrise. There is a low chance (20 percent) of
lightning storms across the north late tonight into early Monday
morning. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

Monday... Surface low pressure will continue to strengthen off the
Carolina coast as it shifts eastward, dragging an accompanying cold
front across east central Florida through the day. A band of rain
and embedded lightning storms will accompany the front, pushing SE
through Lake/Volusia to Brevard/Osceola counties in the morning, and
across Okeechobee and the the Treasure Coast in the afternoon. Have
maintained the peak rain chances at 70 percent areawide. Windy and
gusty conditions outside of convection, with southwest to west winds
increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph by mid to late
morning and going through the day. A Wind Advisory may be needed.
Due to the strong offshore winds, the east coast sea breeze will not
be able to form. Turning cooler on Monday, with afternoon highs in
the low to mid 70s across the north, with upper 70s to low 80s
across the south.  Due to the warmer temperatures across the south,
instability across that area will be higher than it is across the
north. CAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg in that area may overlap
with increasing wind fields to provide a conducive environment for
a couple strong storms to form, with wind gusts being the primary
threat. However, timing will continue to be key as any slowing of
the frontal passage/convection would increase the chance for
isolated severe storms across the south.

Monday night, rain chances will be confined across the Atlantic
waters, with mostly dry conditions across land areas. Winds will
turn west to northwest and will remain breezy/gusty (although not as
strong as during the day). Overnight lows will drop to the low 50s,
except upper 40s across the far north Lake/Volusia counties.

Tuesday-Saturday... (Previous Discussion) Blustery and cooler Mon
night behind the cold front with lows near 50F. Much drier Tue with
decreasing winds as deep low pressure pulls NE away from the area.
High pressure will build east across the Gulf and settle over the FL
peninsula Wed and continue seaward Thu-Fri resulting in a steady
Southeast flow. Some moistening will occur but not sufficient for an
mentionable rain chances. So remaining dry through the week. Tue
night/Wed morning looks the coolest as high center is close by
allowing for excellent radiational cooling with lows in the upper
40s/lower 50s. Then a gradual warming trend is expected, with highs
reaching the low to mid 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Rest of Today-Mon...(Modified Previous Discussion) Low pressure over
the northern Gulf coast this morning will strengthen as it slides
east along a frontal boundary located just north of the area thru
tonight. A trailing cold front will cross the local Atlantic waters
Monday, producing hazardous marine and boating conditions. High
coverage of rain and embedded lightning storms are forecast Sunday
night through the day on Monday. South to Southwest winds 10-15 KT
this afternoon will veer West to northwest Monday and increase to 20-
25 KT, with frequent gusts to Gale force over the open Atlc. A Small
Craft Advisory for all the waters except nearshore Volusia will
begin at 8 AM on Monday, expanding to nearshore Volusia waters in
the afternoon. A Gale Watch for the offshore waters goes into effect
in the afternoon on Monday.

Tue-Fri... (Modified Previous Discussion) Winds veer NW Monday night
with speeds around 25 KT offshore as the low pressure deepens off
the Carolina coast. Then pressure gradient gradually weakens as the
low pushes out to sea on Tuesday. However the seas will build seas
up to 11 ft in the Gulf Stream Mon night into Tue. Weak high
pressure builds east from the Gulf and settles over the Florida
peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday allowing winds to decrease to 5-
10 KT and seas to subside to 6 FT in the Gulf Stream on Wednesday,
and to 3-4ft on Thursday. Friday, winds become southeast and
increase to 10-15 KT with seas 3-4ft. A Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect for all the waters through at least Tuesday morning,
paring back to just the Gulf Stream waters for Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 455 AM EST Sun Mar 9 2025

West-southwest winds increase 10-15mph today with a late sea
breeze turning winds onshore near the immediate coast. Max
temperatures reach the mid and upper 80s from metro Orlando
southward. Dewpoints will be on the rise also with min RH values
holding between 40-45% Orlando south. There will be a chance
(20-30%) of showers north of Orlando which will keep min RH values
higher. A cold front will cross the area Monday bringing
widespread rain with embedded storms with most areas receiving
0.25"-0.50" amounts. Turning Windy Mon with west winds 20 mph
gusting 30 mph. Drier conditions Tue and Wed with decreasing
winds and min RH values near 35 percent over the interior
counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Dominantly VFR at the top of the 18Z TAF package, although,
recent observations have shown a period of MVFR CIGs at DAB.
Prevailing south to southwest winds around 6-10 kts this
afternoon. Winds shift southeast to east along the coast from TIX
southward with a weak sea breeze passage after 21Z. A strong cold
front approaches the area overnight. Terminal impacts are forecast
from northwest to southeast as a band of showers and gusty winds
move across east central Florida tomorrow. The greatest VIS/CIG
reductions are forecast for the greater Orlando terminals
generally around 13/15Z. SHRA impacts arriving at the southern
most terminals at the end of the current TAF period.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  74  50  74 /  40  70   0   0
MCO  66  74  53  74 /  30  70   0   0
MLB  65  79  51  74 /  10  70  10   0
VRB  64  81  51  74 /   0  70  10   0
LEE  65  73  50  75 /  60  70   0   0
SFB  65  75  51  76 /  40  70   0   0
ORL  67  74  53  75 /  30  70   0   0
FPR  64  82  51  74 /   0  70  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-
     572-575.

     Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
     AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Law