660
FXUS62 KMLB 070812
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 312 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

- Hazardous beach and marine conditions continue, including
  dangerous rip currents and rough surf.

- Showers diminishing as drier air infiltrates from the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Current...Deep southeasterly (onshore) flow across ECFL early this
morning. SERLY winds 5-10 mph across the interior/Volusia coast and
10-15 mph along the Space & Treasure coasts with higher gusts. KMLB
88D shows ISOLD, fast-moving, sprinkles/showers over the local
coastal waters with some of this activity pushing onto the coast and
points further inland. Temperatures and dewpoints remain well above
climo in the M-U70s early in the period with conditions humid. A
combination of clouds and elevated winds allowing for this to occur.
Surface high pressure remains north of the area off of the mid Atlc
and Carolina coast. Hurricane Rafael continues to churn NW at 13 mph
with position north of western Cuba in the SE GoMex. Any future
impacts from this system for ECFL include some elevated winds and
diminishing shower chances over land, with poor to hazardous
conditions at area beaches and local coastal waters.

Today-Tonight...As has been previously mentioned expect diminishing
precip chances as activity trends westward and drier air pushes into
the region from the east. Initial early morning PWATs 1.80-2.10
inches will decrease to 1.25-1.35 inches thru the day and further to
0.95-1.25 inches tonight. Lightning chances should stay west of the
Kissimmee River. We retain the onshore E/SE flow generally 10-15 mph
today (little higher at the coast) with higher gusts expected.
Speeds will fall to around 5 mph tonight across the interior and
around 10 mph at the coast. Aloft, stout mid-level high pressure
remains entrenched across the western Atlc with influence stretching
westward across the central FL peninsula and into the eastern Gulf,
which is helping to keep TC Rafael well west of the area. Very warm
temps at 500 mb ~ -3.5C to -4.5C.

Afternoon highs continue above normal in the L-M80s with a few U80s
possible NW of I-4. Overnight lows continue mild in the L-M70s with
few U60s possible over normally cooler locations of the interior and
conditions remaining muggy.

Poor to hazardous beach and marine conditions remain ongoing and
will persist through today. A HIGH risk of numerous, strong, life-
threatening, rip currents and rough surf with breaking waves 4-6
feet are likely. Entering the dangerous surf remains strongly
discouraged!

Fri-Fri Night...Aforementioned mid-level ridging across the western
Atlc and FL peninsula will continue to steer Rafael further westward
into the GoMex. This mid-level ridging will hold tight across the
area thru the period. We continue to keep much drier (deep layer)
air across the region with precip remaining mostly absent from the
local forecast, though we cannot rule out an ISOLD sprinkle/light
shower pushing onto the coast. Temperatures consistent with maxes
in the L-M80s (few U80s well inland) and mins in the U60s to L70s,
few M-U70s over the barrier islands. We retain onshore winds,
occasionally breezy at the coast, during this timeframe.

Sat-Wed...Mostly dry conditions persist into the weekend, though
even with drier air forecast to remain in place, we will still have
onshore flow so cannot fully rule out isolated sprinkles or a few
"low-topped" showers pushing onto the coast from time to time with
some weak coastal convergence. A gradual moisture return is now
forecast for late Sun into early next week, ahead of a weak tropical
system well south, and a greater return (from south to north) of
ISOLD to SCT showery precip (low end Chc ~ 30pct on Mon) ahead of an
approaching weak front to the north. An ISOLD lightning storm may be
possible Mon aftn/night - esp near Orlando southward. This boundary
will again pull drier air back into the area late Tue into Wed.
Upper ridging is forecast to break down Sun into early next week as
troughing approaches with zonal flow aloft. Highs continue well
above average in the L-M80s (few U80s) with lows in the U60s to L70s
(few M70s coast/barrier islands).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Thru Mon...Poor to hazardous boating conditions with gradual
improvement during the day into tonight. Current Small Craft
Advisory til 18Z/1PM near shore and 00Z/7PM offshore, though
future shifts may end either Advisory a little early if conditions
allow. Winds 15-20 kts near shore and 20 kts and gusty offshore
are forecast to decrease to 11-16 kts areawide by late aftn as the
pgrad slowly relaxes. Seas will be a little slower to subside.
The onshore wind component will remain AOB 15 kts tonight thru
early Sat, then strengthen, once again, reaching Cautionary levels
by late Sat aftn thru Sun before winds relax again Sun night-Mon.
Seas 3-5 ft early on Fri into Sat will respond to the winds and
build again Sat night 5-7 ft thru Sun with a gradual subsiding,
again, Sun night-Mon. Needless to say, Cautionary Statements
likely Sat night-Sun night and a Small Craft Advisory possible for
at least offshore marine legs for a portion of the extended as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

MVFR CIGs are forecast to prevail through most of the overnight
hours at the terminals, with a return to prevailing VFR early
Thursday morning. VCSH ongoing along the coast, especially south
of Cape Canaveral, and guidance is indicating this activity will
persist overnight and into early Thursday morning. VCSH will then
be possible across the interior 14Z to 21Z across the interior
terminals, with the coastal terminals remaining mostly dry.
Onshore flow persists at 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
possible, especially along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  85  71 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  86  71  86  71 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  84  73  84  72 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  85  73  85  73 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  87  70  87  69 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  87  70  86  69 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  87  72  87  71 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  84  72  84  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-
     552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen