925
FXUS62 KMLB 150948
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
448 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 448 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

- Dangerous surf and poor to hazardous boating conditions
  continue today and into this weekend. Residents and visitors are
  advised to stay out of the ocean due to a high risk of rip
  currents.

- Minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding will be possible
  during the morning high tide cycles today and into this
  weekend, peaking with Saturday morning`s high tide.

- Isolated showers possible today with a passing weak cold front,
  and then dry conditions prevail through the weekend into early
  next week. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures forecast behind
  the front today into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 448 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Currently-Tonight...Cold front currently moving into northern
portions of Lake and Volusia counties will continue to push
southward across the area today, gradually shifting south of Lake
Okeechobee/Treasure Coast region into mid to late afternoon. Not a
lot of moisture ahead of this front and convergence will remain
rather weak, but isolated shower development will continue to be
possible along this boundary as it shifts southward. Chance of
rain remains low overall, around 20 percent, mainly into the
morning and early afternoon, and as drier air filters in behind
the front this will gradually end rain chances from north to south
through the day. Winds will becoming northerly behind the front
and increase to 10-15 mph across inland areas, with breezy
conditions along the immediate coast up to 15-20 mph and gusts to
25-30 mph. This northerly flow will lead to cooler, more
seasonable temps today, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s
near to north of line from Kissimmee to Melbourne. Temps south of
this line should be able to reach the low 80s before front begins
to move through, and then will fall into the mid to upper 70s as
well through the afternoon behind this boundary.

Much cooler air will continue to filter in behind the front into
tonight as northerly winds around 5 to 10 mph persist. Lows will
fall into the mid to upper 50s across the interior and into the 60s
along the immediate coast. These are values that are all normal for
this time of year. However, with the persistent warmer conditions
as of late, these temps will certainly seem cooler than normal!

Saturday-Monday...Dry conditions will generally prevail through the
weekend into early next week as high pressure over the eastern U.S.
settles southward across the region and ridge aloft shifts east and
across Florida. Winds will remain out of the N/NE on Saturday and
then gradually veer onshore, allowing for a gradual warming trend
through this period. Highs will remain seasonable on Saturday, in
the mid to upper 70s, and then will rise slightly each day to the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Sunday, and in the low 80s on
Monday. Lows will also rebound into the 60s across much of the area,
but some lingering min temps in the mid to upper 50s will still be
possible NW of I-4 into Saturday and Sunday nights.

Minor coastal flooding will continue to be possible during the
morning high tides on Saturday and Sunday, as high astronomical
tides will continue through the weekend. The greatest potential for
any coastal flooding impacts will occur with the Saturday morning`s
high tide cycle, around 7 to 8 AM due to the addition of building
seas and elevated N/NE flow. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues
through Saturday evening, but will likely need to be extended
through Sunday as higher astronomical tides continue.

Tuesday-Thursday...The latest NHC forecast for Tropical Storm
Sara has this system making landfall along the coast of Belize and
dissipating over the Yucatan Peninsula during the late weekend.
Model guidance shows ridge aloft across Florida gradually getting
pushed southward into Tuesday, with remnant vorticity/moisture of
Sara lifting N/NE into the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions still look to remain unfavorable for any tropical
redevelopment with Sara`s remnants over the Gulf, which latest
model guidance continues to support. However, as the deeper
moisture left over from this system shifts toward Florida ahead of
an approaching cold front, rain chances will increase, with the
potential for some locally heavy rainfall into mid-week. Dry and
warmer than normal conditions prevail into Tuesday, and then rain
chances rise through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Stronger cold
front is then forecast to push through the area later Wednesday
into Wednesday evening shifting any deeper moisture out of the
area, and leading to drier conditions and much cooler temperatures
into late next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Today-Sunday...Cold front will cross the waters today, with winds
becoming northerly and increasing to 15-20 knots, with seas
building to 6 to 8 feet offshore. This will lead to poor to
hazardous boating conditions across the waters, with a Small Craft
Advisory across the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard
counties expanding southward to include the offshore waters of the
Treasure Coast this afternoon. Nearshore, small craft should
exercise caution today.

The Small Craft Advisory will expand to include the nearshore
waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast this evening, as
seas continue to build to 5 to 7 feet. Winds will gradually
diminish to 10-15 knots late tonight into Saturday as they veer
to the northeast. However, seas will continue to build up to 7 to
9 feet into early weekend. Small Craft Advisory will persist
across much if not all of the coastal waters through Saturday and
Saturday night.

Winds will continue to diminish as they veer to the east-northeast
into Sunday, but lingering seas up to 5-6 feet will continue to
produce poor boating conditions over the gulf stream waters.

Monday-Tuesday...More favorable boating conditions forecast into
early next week, with winds around 5-10 knots out of the E/SE on
Monday and S/SE on Tuesday. Seas fall to 3-4 feet on Monday and
2-3 feet on Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 100 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

TAFs begin with VFR conditions. MVFR CIGs & VCSH are forecast after
09Z-11Z at the TAF sites NNW of KMLB. MVFR CIGs & VCSH are forecast
after 12Z-15Z at KMLB and at the TAF sites to the S. Light SW winds
are forecast to veer NNW and increase at 10-14kts with gusts to 15-22kts
into FRI PM as a cold front moves ESE over ECFL. VFR conditions are
expected into FRI PM and light NNE winds are forecast after 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  61  77  62 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  78  60  78  62 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  79  63  78  65 /  20   0   0   0
VRB  80  65  80  66 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  77  55  79  57 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  77  58  78  59 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  77  60  80  62 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  80  64  79  65 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Fehling