289
FXUS62 KMLB 130621
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
221 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues; entering
  the ocean is strongly discouraged

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions today briefly improve on
  Tuesday, then deteriorate again by Wednesday

- Mostly dry through the week, except Wednesday and Thursday, when
  a few showers may develop and move onshore; near to slightly
  below normal temperatures are forecast

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Today-Tonight...The week kicks off with another cool morning, as
temperatures have settled into the 60s under mostly clear skies.
Some mid level cloud cover is rounding the base of a 500mb trough,
and these clouds could briefly reach far northern portions of our
area through sunrise. Otherwise, a pleasant day is in store weather-
wise with mostly sunny conditions. A northerly breeze will linger,
generally around 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Weak ridging begins to
build over western Florida tonight as the coastal low pressure
system near the Carolinas pushes farther north and east. Daytime
highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast before temperatures retreat
into the 60s overnight. These values are near to slightly below
normal for mid-October.

At the coast, a high risk of rip currents continues. Beach
conditions are poor in many spots along our coastline due to recent
coastal flooding and erosion impacts. Residents and visitors are
encouraged to avoid impacted areas and to stay out of the water
altogether.

Along the Saint Johns River, the point at Astor is forecast to
remain in moderate flood stage through the week. Farther upstream,
points at Deland, Sanford, and Geneva remain in action stage.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Surface high pressure centered over Manitoba and
the northern U.S. Tuesday moves east toward the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, while H5 ridging expands its influence from the ArkLaTex
to the Upper Midwest. East-central Florida exists on the eastern
periphery of this ridge, resulting in deep north-northeasterly flow
into mid week. Appreciable dry air and clear skies are forecast to
remain over the area Tuesday, as temperatures climb another degree
or so in the afternoon (low-mid 80s). By Wednesday, low-level
moisture (below 850mb) advects toward the Florida Atlantic Coast, in
concert with a modest tightening of the pressure gradient. North-
northeasterly winds increase a bit during the afternoon and
sufficient near-surface moisture may result in low-topped showers
moving ashore. Overall, QPF remains very light (a few hundredths
along the coast) and locations farther inland will be even less
likely to see precipitation. Cloud cover will increase a bit though,
and combined with northerly flow, daytime highs look to fall a few
degrees shy of normal.

The risk for rip currents will continue, worsening again from
Wednesday onward as longer period swells arrive at the coast.

Thursday-Sunday...Winds gain more of an easterly component on
Thursday as another push of low-level moisture arrives during the
day. Additionally, a reinforcing cold front is set to move through
during the day. For now, areas closer to the coast and south of
Cape Canaveral have the best chance to experience more isolated
shower activity. Less cloud cover is anticipated farther inland,
allowing temps to climb closer to the mid 80s. A shower or two
may linger along the southern Treasure Coast Thursday night/early
Friday before drier conditions largely return Friday into the
weekend. Model discrepancies become apparent after the H5 ridge
axis moves overhead Friday into Saturday, with guidance developing
a trough over the central CONUS. The speed and expanse of this
trough becomes a bigger question from Sunday onward. Uncertainty
also exists regarding a mid level impulse over the Florida Keys on
Sunday. Drier air over central Florida should keep deeper
moisture focused over south Florida, but this is just another
feature to monitor through the week.

All in all, expect a lot of dry time with temperatures ranging
from the low/mid 80s each day to the 60s each night. Life-
threatening rip currents will remain at area beaches through at
least late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Hazardous seas of 5 to 7 feet will linger through late morning over
the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters (20-60nm). Poor boating
conditions are forecast to continue through late tonight across the
offshore waters, briefly improving on Tuesday. High pressure builds
over the waters through mid week as a reinforcing cold front
approaches on Thursday. Some shower activity may develop Wednesday
and Thursday, along with low-mid level cloud cover. A slight uptick
in wind speeds (15-20 kt) is anticipated Wednesday-Thursday as
longer period swells builds seas to 5-8 feet. Seas then begin to
slowly improve into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions forecast through the period. Light and variable
winds pick up out of the NNE at 5 to 10 knots late morning,
becoming light and variable once more overnight. Dry through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  65  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  84  65  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  82  69  83  69 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  83  69  83  67 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  84  63  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  84  64  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  83  65  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  66  83  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen