633
FXUS62 KMLB 281720
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1220 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

- A slight cool-down today, giving way to a pleasant weekend.

- Boating conditions improve through the day, but become poor
  again Sunday.

- Next rain chances forecast for the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Morning fog has largely dissipated over the Treasure Coast while
low clouds still remain. These clouds will slowly clear through
midday with all locations experiencing mostly sunny conditions
this afternoon. Temperatures are still on track to reach the mid
70s areawide, though the Volusia and Brevard coast may stay in the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees. The warmest locations will be
across the interior and surrounding Lake Okeechobee, where
temperatures in the upper 70s are forecast. The previous forecast
remains on track.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Today-Tonight...A dry cold front continues southward through the
local area prior to sunrise this morning, before stalling across
south Florida into tonight. Northerly winds behind the front today
will lead to a slight cool down in temperatures. Forecast highs in
the mid to upper 70s near normal for much of east central
Florida, though coastal Volusia County will be slightly below
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A pleasant day in store
overall, with low cloud cover and a Moderate Risk of rip currents
at area beaches. Overnight lows are forecast in the lower to
mid-50s, though areas north of I-4 are expected to see the upper
40s.

Saturday-Tuesday...High pressure briefly builds into the area
Saturday, before a reinforcing, dry cold front passes through the
area on Sunday. Stronger high pressure then builds into the
eastern US early next week. Dry conditions will prevail through
the period, near to slightly below normal temperatures continuing.
Highs each day in the 70s, with overnight lows generally in the
50s, though cooler spots to the north could see upper 40s again
Sunday night. By Tuesday, high pressure begins to drift offshore
into the western Atlantic ahead of a low pressure system moving
through the central US. A tightening pressure gradient will lead
to breezy southeast winds around 15mph along the coast Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Otherwise, winds remaining around 10mph or
less.

Wednesday-Thursday...Mid to late week next week, the
aforementioned low is forecast to drag a surface cold front
towards the local area. Models are in fairly good agreement that
this feature will make it to northern portions of the forecast
area by Wednesday evening. However, changes in the timing and
coverage of any showers will be possible, given the time scale.
Regardless, shower chances look to increase by mid to late week.
For now, have capped PoPs at 40% Wednesday into Thursday. Have
included a slight (~20%) chance for thunderstorms Wednesday
evening, as models suggest modest CAPE. Southwesterly winds ahead
of the front are forecast to lead to above normal high
temperatures in the lower to mid-80s Wednesday afternoon, with
cooler, nearer to normal temperatures returning behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Today-Tonight...Poor boating conditions early this morning behind
a weak, dry cold front offshore north of Cape Canaveral will
improve through the day today, as northerly winds 15-20kts
diminish to 5-10kts and seas 3-5ft become 2-4ft. Until then, small
craft should exercise caution.

This Weekend-Early Next Week...Conditions become favorable into
early this weekend, with high pressure building into the local
area. Light and generally westerly winds Saturday, with seas
2-3ft. However, a reinforcing, dry front on Sunday will once again
develop a period of poor boating conditions, mainly offshore north
of the Cape. Northerly winds 15-20kts and seas up to 5ft in the
Gulf Stream. By early next week, boating conditions will improve
once again, before the pressure gradient tightens on Tuesday, with
hazardous winds and seas developing into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions are forecast across all east central Florida
terminals. A dry cold front pushed south of the area this morning,
with dry conditions prevailing behind the front. This is forecast
to continue through the remainder of today and into Saturday.
Winds become light and variable overnight, with minimal cloud
coverage expected. Fog development, particularly at VRB, FPR, and
SUA, cannot be ruled out late tonight into early Saturday morning,
but confidence remains too low at this time to include in the
TAFs. Will continue to reevaluate with the next packages and
amend as needed. Winds picking up out of the west-northwest
tomorrow morning between 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Today-Sunday...Sensitive fire weather conditions into this
weekend, due to low relative humidity and dry fuels. Min RH as low
as 25-35 percent along and north of I-4 this afternoon will expand
to most of the area north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure
Coast on Saturday. Minor improvement behind a dry cold front on
Sunday, though min RH as low as 30-35 percent will linger over the
interior. Fortunately, winds are forecast to remain below 15mph as
they veer from northerly today, to southwesterly Saturday, and
northerly again on Sunday. Breezy conditions are forecast along
the coast on Sunday, though min RH is expected to remain above
critical levels in that area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  49  77  52  68 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  54  77  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  54  78  54  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  55  80  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  50  76  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  52  78  53  73 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  54  77  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  55  79  52  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen