593
FXUS62 KMLB 200544
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
144 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- A passing disturbance aloft will help generate scattered to numerous
  showers and storms across the area this weekend and into next
  week.

- A few strong storms will be possible each afternoon and early evening,
  with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph,
  frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches.

- Seasonable temperatures will continue across the area over the
  next several days but remaining humid.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Today-Sunday... An upper level cut-off low will move westward across
the Florida peninsula today before stalling over the eastern Gulf
Sunday. At the surface, broad high pressure will remain across the
Florida peninsula through the weekend. Locally, deep moisture will
increase, with forecast PW values of 1.8-2.0" both days. East to
northeast winds will persist through the rest of the weekend, with
speeds generally 5-10 mph. Near normal to slightly higher than
normal rain chances are forecast each day. There is a medium (30-60
percent) chance of rain today, and a medium to high (40-70 percent)
chance on Sunday. Greatest coverage of showers and storms will
generally be across the interior (west of I-95) today and across the
south, mainly from Kissimmee to Melbourne southward, on Sunday.
Isolated to scattered onshore-moving showers are forecast in the
morning before coverage increases and transitions over land in the
afternoon as daytime heating occurs and the east coast sea breeze
forms and pushes inland each day. The environment supports
convection with sufficient instability (1500-1700 J/kg of MUCAPE),
adequate shear (around 20 KT of sfc-8km), cooler temperatures aloft
(-7C to -8C at 500 mb), and sufficient downdraft potential (600-800
J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards will be frequent
lightning strikes, gusty wind of 45-50 mph, small hail, and locally
heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches each day. Any lingering shower and
storm activity will diminish each evening, with mostly dry
conditions expected overnight. However, isolated to scattered
showers and storms will continue to be possible over the Atlantic
waters overnight and into the morning, with some of this activity
potentially moving onshore.

Seasonable temperatures are forecast through the rest of this
weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with
peak heat indices of 100-107 degrees. Warm and muggy conditions
continue each night, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches this
weekend. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

Monday- Friday... The upper level low off the west coast of Florida
to start off the week will slowly lift northeast before becoming
absorbed by a northern stream trough early week. The trough will
slowly shift eastward towards the eastern coast, eventually moving
offshore the eastern US by mid-late week. At the surface, a frontal
boundary is forecast to reach central Florida Thursday before
stalling across south Florida on Friday. Locally, deep moisture will
remain through mid week, supporting high rain and storm chances,
with a high (60-80 percent) chance of rain Monday-Wednesday.
Slightly drier air will filter across the local area into late week,
resulting in rain chances becoming near normal, with a medium to
high (40-70 percent) chance of rain Thursday-Friday. Main storm
hazards will continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
around 45 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Seasonable temperatures
are forecast through the period, with highs in  the upper 80s to low
90s. These temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak
heat indices of 95-105 degrees each day. Warm and muggy conditions
forecast each night, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Today-Thursday... Generally favorable boating conditions are
forecast into mid next week. East to northeast winds will prevail
with speeds below 15 KT. seas 2-3ft. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms are forecast each day and overnight. Storms will be
capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in
excess of 34 knots, and heavy downpours. Seas locally higher in
the vicinity of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Isolated showers near or pushing onshore the coast will continue
to be possible through early this morning. Into the afternoon,
scattered to locally numerous showers and storms will develop with
the inland moving sea breeze, with VCTS starting 16-17Z. Have
3-hour PROB30/TEMPO groups for most sites (except KDAB) for MVFR
TSRA impacts between 16-22Z. Majority of convection should again
diminish or shift west-southwest of the area by 00Z, but can`t
rule out lingering areas of rain/isolated showers and storms into
the evening. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the E/NE
around 5-9 knots into the afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  88  74 /  20  10  50  10
MCO  90  73  90  73 /  50  10  70  10
MLB  87  74  87  75 /  60  20  60  20
VRB  88  73  87  73 /  60  20  70  20
LEE  89  73  90  74 /  50  10  60  10
SFB  88  73  89  74 /  40  10  70  10
ORL  89  74  90  74 /  50  10  60  10
FPR  88  72  88  72 /  60  20  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Weitlich