641
FXUS62 KMLB 200553
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
153 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- High Surf ADVISORY remains in effect for Volusia & Brevard
  Coasts, and will go into effect for the Treasure Coast on
  Wednesday morning, for 5-8 FT breakers & minor beach/dune
  erosion expected.

- The HIGH Risk of deadly rip currents will persist all week and
  likely this weekend as Hurricane Erin churns up the Atlantic
  with a large swell.

- Dangerous boating conditions are forecast through much of this
  week as seas only slowly subside behind Erin.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Today-Wednesday... Hurricane Erin will continue to push northward,
with the latest NHC forecast having Erin remain well east of the
Florida peninsula. The closest approach of the center of Hurricane
Erin is forecast to occur around sunrise Wednesday, which is
approximately 415 miles east of Cape Canaveral. The pressure
gradient over the local area will continue to tighten as Erin moves
northward, producing breezy/gusty north to northeast winds today at
10-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph (especially along the coast)
before turning north to northwest on Wednesday. Rain chances will
remain somewhat lower as high pressure and some drier air around the
periphery of the hurricane continues. Have maintained a medium (40-
50 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms this afternoon and
evening as well as for Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be
seasonably warm for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the
low to mid 90s each day. These temperatures, combined with humidity,
will produce peak heat indices of 102-106 degrees. Overnight
temperatures will be warm and muggy with lows in the low to mid 70s,
with some upper 70s forecast around the Orlando Metro area each
night.

Building swells from Hurricane Erin will produce significant coastal
and boating effects for east central Florida. A High risk of rip
currents will remain in effect through Wednesday for all central
Florida beaches. Along with that, a High Surf Advisory remains in
effect for Volusia and Brevard coasts, and will start along the
coast of the Treasure Coast early Wednesday morning, due to large
breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet that are forecast in the nearshore
waters. This will produce rough pounding surf with minor beach and
dune erosion, particularly during the time of high tide cycles
(around 5 to 7  AM and PM). Dangerous conditions are forecast at the
local beaches and entering the surf is not advised.

Thursday-Monday... (Previous Discussion) A mid and surface level
ridge is forecast to build just south of the Florida peninsula as
Hurricane Erin moves northeastward out to sea. This set-up will
result in prevailing light offshore flow locally, with a return of
moisture forecast through the end of this week and into the weekend.
The offshore flow should not be strong enough to hold off the east
coast sea breeze so the sea breeze collision will favor the eastern
side of the peninsula. Based on this, kept PoPs 50-70% in the
extended period. Warm conditions persist through the period, with
highs in the low 90s and peak heat indices 100 to 105.

At the beaches, conditions will be slow to improve even as Hurricane
Erin accelerates NE away from the area. A HIGH risk of rip currents
will continue at the beaches all week, and likely through the
weekend. Entering the surf is not advised.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Today-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Boating conditions
are deteriorating across the local Atlantic waters today and will
deteriorate further tonight and Wednesday as Hurricane Erin
continues to lift northward, remaining well east of the Florida
peninsula. The current NHC forecast has the closest approach of the
center of Erin about 415 east of Cape Canaveral early Wednesday.
North to northeast winds today will be 15 knots, with gusts up to 25
knots. Winds then back out of the north-northwest tonight and
Wednesday with speeds 15-20 knots gusting up to 30 knots. Seas are
forecast to continue to build with nearshore seas peaking at 6 to 11
feet and offshore seas peaking at 9 to 15 feet on Wednesday. While
Erin is forecast to turn NE and accelerate away from the area late
this week and winds weaken to 10 to 15 knots, seas will be slow to
subside across the local waters. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for most of the waters thru Thu eve, which will expand to the
nearshore Treasure coast waters by this evening. SCA extensions in
time past Thu night especially for the offshore waters will likely
be needed.

In particular, very dangerous conditions will exist at inlets
especially during the outgoing tide cycle due to the incoming large,
long period swells produced by Erin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Isolated showers will still be able to push onshore or brush
southward along the coast through early this morning, producing
brief MVFR conditions. Scattered showers and storms then forecast
to develop with earliest initial development forecast near KDAB
by late morning morning and expanding south and inland with time
through the afternoon. Have VCTS starting around 15Z at KDAB, 16Z
at KTIX, 17Z at KMLB/KVRB, and 18Z across inland terminals and
KFPR/KSUA. This activity will move toward the south to southeast,
producing brief IFR/MVFR conditions, as well as variable and gusty
winds. Convection will diminish into the evening, with dry
conditions forecast overnight.

N/NW winds 5-7 knots will increase to 8-10 knots inland and up to
10-15 knots along the coast with gusts up to 20-22 knots this
afternoon. Winds diminish after sunset, becoming light and
variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  76  94  76 /  50  10  60  20
MCO  94  77  95  76 /  40  10  60  20
MLB  92  77  94  76 /  50  10  60  30
VRB  93  74  95  74 /  50  20  60  30
LEE  93  77  93  77 /  40  10  60  20
SFB  93  77  94  77 /  50  10  60  20
ORL  93  77  94  77 /  50  10  60  20
FPR  94  73  95  73 /  50  20  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-347-447-
     647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ154-159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Weitlich