400
FXUS62 KMLB 080114
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
814 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 814 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

- Areas to widespread fog developing overnight and persisting into
  early Saturday morning. Drivers should slow down and use low-
  beam headlights when encountering dense fog.

- High temperatures will range from 10 to 15 degrees above normal
  through at least the middle of next week. Where temps reach the
  mid to upper 80s, there is a low risk of heat-related illness
  for those not acclimated to unusually warm winter weather.

- Rain-free conditions persist through at least Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE... (Tonight-Saturday AM)
Issued at 814 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Keeping an eye on low stratus and fog development, which so far
has been confined to N Brevard and now portions of Greater
Orlando. RH values are already reaching the 90s (%) with
saturation once again forecast overnight. Meanwhile, hi-res
guidance shows some fog advecting off the Gulf as radiation fog
tries to get going closer to the Atlantic Coast. Inherited
forecast handled this quite well with only some timing tweaks
required where patchy fog has already formed around Titusville and
the Cape.

The rest of the forecast is straightforward as lows fall back
toward the upper 50s to mid 60s by daybreak. Fog may take a little
time to erode, first into low stratus before sun breaks out on
Saturday. Despite this, the warmer February sun will spike highs
back into the low/mid 80s by afternoon except on the barrier
islands where upper 70s can be anticipated.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Saturday PM-Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Weekend... High pressure holds control, and a period of warm dry
weather continues through the weekend. Light south to southwest
flow turns onshore each afternoon as the east and west coast sea
breezes drift inland. Temperatures climb above seasonal values
with highs in the low to mid 80s. Morning lows are forecast in the
upper 50s to low 60s while more rural areas of northwest Volusia
and northern Lake counties could fall a few degrees cooler. No
precip is expected.

Monday-Thursday... Surface high pressure gradually weakens into next
week. The area remains dry through the first half of the extended
period before rain chances return mid to late week as a cold
front approaches east central Florida. Temperatures follow a
warming trend each afternoon, reaching the mid to upper 80s west
of I-95 by Wednesday. Cooler along the coast with highs in the low
to mid 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Weekend... Favorable boating conditions this weekend while remaining
under the influence of high pressure. Light and variable winds
are forecast through the day Saturday increasing out of the south
around 8-12 kts Saturday night. Light offshore flow develops
Sunday, shifting onshore as the seas breeze develops in the
afternoon. Seas around 2-3 ft persist with locally higher seas up
to 4 ft across the far offshore Volusia and Brevard waters. Fog is
forecast to develop across the intracoastal and nearshore
Atlantic waters late tonight, potentially lingering across the
Volusia and Brevard nearshore waters into Saturday afternoon. No
precip is forecast.

Monday-Wednesday...Light offshore flow continues Monday, again
shifting onshore as the sea breeze develops. Southerly flow then
develops Tuesday, increasing to 10-15 kts. Seas of 2-3 ft build up
to 5 ft offshore by Tuesday, subsiding to 3-4 ft areawide on
Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 621 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

MCO IMPACT:
- IFR VIS/CIG likely (60-70%) between 09-14Z with occasional LIFR
  conditions.

Another round of fog and low CIGs forecast to develop overnight
across most terminals. Timing is somewhat difficult and challenged
by combo of fog emanating from the Gulf and radiative fog closer
to the east coast terminals. Prior to midnight, we will be
watching DAB/TIX/MLB for any patchy fog development, then highest
coverage of fog with IFR/LIFR conds forecast between 8-14Z before
improvements start to occur by late morning. Lt/VRB winds
overnight into Saturday morning, becoming S (Orlando) or ESE
(coast) 5-12 KT in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  80  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  62  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  62  79  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  62  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  59  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  84  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  83  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  62  81  60  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil