918
FXUS62 KMLB 050232
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
932 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 932 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

- Milder on Thursday with widespread 70s returning.

- Another cold front clips Florida late this week. Orlando and
  Daytona Beach areas only to reach the 60s Friday, and wind
  chills should briefly fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s on
  Saturday morning near and especially north of I-4.

- Dry weather is expected through at least early next week as
  temperatures slowly warm up.

&&

.UPDATE... (Through Thursday)
Issued at 932 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

No significant impactful weather is occurring around the Sunshine
State tonight as high pressure resides very close to the I-4
corridor. Just enough onshore component to our winds earlier today
to allow some moistening of the low layers. This will hold
temperatures up a bit over the last couple of nights. However,
it`ll still be chilly in the morning with widespread 40s, except
low/mid 50s immediate Space/Treasure Coasts.

Our next cold front resides over the Lower Ohio Valley this
evening. It`ll approach the state on Friday. Ahead of it tomorrow,
return (westerly) flow will allow temperatures to jump back into
the 70s under plentiful sunshine. It should be a `chamber of
commerce` afternoon of weather across East Central Florida.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Friday-Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Friday-Monday...A weak, dry cold front will move through east
central Florida Thursday night into Friday. Winds will once again
veer northerly behind the front and increase to 10-15mph. Our
brief warming trend will pause for a day, as cooler air advects
into the area. Highs will again struggle to reach 70 along and
north of I-4, but areas to the south will see the lower 70s. A
final night of cooler air, with 40s once again for interior
locations. However, coastal sites look to remain in the lower to
mid-50s.

High pressure then builds into the Southeast for the weekend into
early next week. The warming trend will resume, with high
temperatures even reaching above normal by Monday. Highs in the
lower to mid-70s will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s through
the period. Dry conditions will continue to prevail. Northeast
winds Saturday will veer onshore Sunday, then southeasterly
Monday. Overnight lows will follow the warming trend, with minimum
temperatures remaining in the lower 60s by Monday night.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Confidence in the forecast decreases into
mid-week next week. Models suggest a stronger cold front moving
into the Southeast US during this period, but have differed on
timing and strength not only between models, but from run to run.
Will continue to monitor over the next several days, though rain
chances appear to return into Wednesday. Slightly above normal
temperatures look to continue, at least until the front passes
through the local area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Rest of Today-Thursday...Boating conditions continue to improve,
as high pressure drifts from the Southeast into the Atlantic.
Northeast winds this afternoon veer westerly Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front, which is forecast to move through the
local waters Thursday night into Friday. Wind speeds will remain
under 15kts, with no precipitation forecast. Seas 3-5ft today
becoming 2-3ft by Thursday afternoon.

Friday-Monday...The aforementioned front will pass through the
area Friday, veering winds once more out of the north. Winds look
to increase to 15-20kts during the day on Friday before
diminishing. This will be enough to build seas to up to 6ft over
the Gulf Stream by Friday night. A few showers will be possible
well offshore Friday.

Poor boating conditions will improve into this weekend, as high
pressure reestablishes itself over the area. Northeast winds
Saturday veer to southeast by Monday around 15kts or less. Seas up
to 5ft will linger into Saturday, then become 3-4ft for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 624 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR throughout the period. Lingering NW winds around MCO will
quickly become variable tonight. All sites turn westerly up to 10
KT on Thursday. No significant aviation wx hazards anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Thursday...Dry air lingers on Thursday, as temperatures rise to
near-normal. Afternoon highs are forecast in the lower to mid-70s.
These conditions will lead to min RH values between 40-45% for
most of the area. Westerly winds look to remain under 10mph.
Conditions are expected to improve Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  46  72  53  65 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  49  74  57  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  50  75  55  71 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  51  75  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  47  72  53  65 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  73  54  66 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  49  74  56  68 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  75  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil